DFS strategy is different on small playoff slates. It’s important to get unique, but that becomes tricky when you have fewer options to choose from on these smaller slates. Ultimately, we are looking for the highest ceiling and a few spots to get different, if it makes sense.
FanDuel offers multiple slates for the Divisional Weekend. You can play each day individually or combined. Sunday is considered the “main” slate. In this article, I’ll offer my favorite way to approach each position across the weekend, making sure to cover players from both days.
Quarterback
Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Josh Allen @ DEN – $9,000
Allen is in playoff mode, so fade him at your own risk. He’s the only true dual-threat QB on the slate. Case in point, the other seven QBs playing this weekend combined for just one more rushing TD than Allen’s 14 during the regular season. He is the most expensive QB on the slate, but there are no high-priced stacking partners for him, so you can save salary elsewhere. There is also an advantage to having your QB play in the first game of the weekend, allowing you to adjust your lineup as necessary when you get more information.
Matthew Stafford @ CHI – $8,300
Unlike Allen, you won’t get any points from Stafford’s legs. However, he’s the most likely QB on the slate to throw 3+ TDs. His career-high 7.7% TD rate led the NFL in the regular season, and he didn’t slow down with his three TDs on 42 attempts (7.1%) in the Wild Card round. The Rams also have the highest team implied point total of the weekend (26), even as they head to chilly Chicago.
Sam Darnold vs. SF – $7,300
The Seahawks are seven-point home favorites, and while that may signal a heavy dose of the run game, there is a world where that lead comes from multiple Darnold TD passes. The 49ers had success against Jalen Hurts and Philly’s disappointing passing game last week, but they finished the season ranking 20th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to QBs over the last four weeks. Rostering Allen or Stafford at QB is a safer play, but I want exposure to Darnold in tournaments.
Running Backs
James Cook @ DEN – $8,400
Cook would be tougher to stomach on a full regular-season slate, but he makes sense when we’re limited to just eight teams. Denver has a stout run defense, ranking ninth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs during the regular season, but we know that the Bills will give this season’s rushing champ plenty of opportunities. Rostering him along with Josh Allen nearly guarantees access to all of the points Buffalo will score.
RJ Harvey vs. BUF – $6,900
Harvey is going to be popular against Buffalo’s run defense, which ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs this season. Last week, Jacksonville RBs combined for 118 yards on just 14 carries, a whopping 8.4 yards/attempt. Harvey should be able to benefit here, as he’s handled 67% of Denver’s RB carries since Week 11.
Kevin Ng-Imagn Images
Zach Charbonnet vs. SF – $6,600
Charbonnet is priced $200 higher than his running mate, Kenneth Walker, which could depress his roster percentage. The salaries make sense, as Charbs has four TDs on the ground over the past three games, compared to just one for Ken Bone Walker. I don’t want to play a Seattle RB along with Darnold, but I’m firing up Charbonnet with any other QB.
Kyle Monangai vs. LAR – $5,600
D’Andre Swift ($6,700) outplayed Monangai last week against Green Bay, but I’m happy to take the $1,100 salary discount on the rookie, who will likely be lower rostered. As I mentioned in last week’s FD write-up, despite carrying the ball 53 times fewer than Swift in the regular season, Monangai trailed him by just four carries and one TD from inside the five-yard line.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. SF – $9,400
It’s JSN vs. Puka Nacua at the top of the salary scale, and if I’m choosing between them this weekend, give me JSN. The two put up nearly identical stats in the regular season, but Smith-Njigba’s 35.8% target rate was the best in the league. There is also some game theory here, as Puka may be the most popular WR on the weekend, even as the highest-priced player at any position. Don’t get me wrong, this is not an anti-Puka take, but rather a preference to lean into JSN and/or the next WR I will mention.
Davante Adams @ CHI – $7,800
Adams feels like a steal at just $7,800, a whopping $2,000 cheaper than teammate Puka Nacua. He’s also projected to be far lower rostered according to the optimizer. While Adams didn’t find the end zone against Carolina last week, he did see a healthy 13 targets. It may be narrative-based, but we also know that he’ll have no problem playing in the cold after spending his first eight seasons with the Packers.
Sean Thomas-Imagn Images
Courtland Sutton vs. BUF – $7,100
I don’t want to overthink which Bronco WR to roster, give me Sutton and his team-leading seven TD passes, especially on FD. Sutton also led Denver with a 21.3% target rate, 13.3 yard aDOT, and 1.62 yards/RR. I can see throwing a dart on Troy Franklin ($5,600) or Pat Bryant ($4,900) in large field tournaments, but I will be overweight on Sutton.
Jayden Higgins @ NE – $5,900
I don’t want much to do with the HOU @ NE game, but with Nico Collins looking likely to miss, there is value to be had in the Texans’ WR corps. Xavier Hutchinson ($5,400) could make more sense on a full PPR site, but give me Higgins and his TD upside on FD. He tied Nico Collins for the team lead with six TDs this season, and if Nico is sidelined, Higgins becomes the Houston WR most likely to find the end zone.
Keon Coleman @ DEN – $5,300
I’ve recommended Coleman a few times this season, with varied results. After a rash of WR injuries, the Bills may not have a choice other than to trot out the mercurial WR. He caught his lone target for 36 yards last week and is tied for the second-most TDs (4) on Buffalo, the same amount as Khalil Shakir ($6,500).
Tight Ends
Note: Colston Loveland ($6,000) will likely be the most rostered TE on the slate. I’m not writing him up here, but that doesn’t mean I won’t have any exposure to him. Instead, however, let me offer up a few other options.
Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Dalton Schultz @ NE – $5,300
If there’s one thing we know, it’s that Schultz will be on the field running routes for the Texans. He led the team with 525 during the regular season and tied Nico Collins for the team lead with 26 in the Wild Card round. With Collins likely sidelined, he will have more opportunities for targets and TDs as well.
AJ Barner vs. SF – $5,200
Once again, I’m looking for TD upside on FD. Not only did Barner trail only JSN on Seattle with six receiving TDs this season, but he also scored one on the ground. That’s a real possibility as he converted ten rushing attempts into nine first downs as Seattle’s tush push QB.
Los Angeles Rams TE @ CHI
The Rams have three viable TEs to choose from, and if I’m rostering Stafford, I’m pairing him with one of them. Colby Parkinson ($5,100) was the most effective throughout the regular season and found the end zone again in the Wild Card round, making him my favorite of the group. Veteran Tyler Higbee ($4,900) saw just as many targets as Parkinson last week and turned them into nine more yards. However, Terrance Ferguson ($4,600) looks to be back from the hamstring injury that held him out last week. The athletic rookie led the group, and all Rams except for Tutu Atwell, with an 18.3-yard aDOT during the regular season.
DST
Remember, there is plenty of variance when it comes to DSTs in DFS. Choose one that makes sense for the lineup you build. Seattle ($4,200) is the biggest favorite of the weekend and shouldn’t have a problem paying off their salary at home if things go according to script. The Bears ($3,800) work if you think that they, along with the frigid temperatures, can slow down LA’s offense. The Bills ($3,700) are the cheapest team on the weekend, but have a real chance to slow down Bo Nix and the Broncos, especially if they get Ed Oliver back on the D-line. Ultimately, consider your budget and determine which team best complements the rest of your lineup.