Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our Super Bowl betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation leading up to the big game.
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Jan 31. Sportsbooks resist moving Super Bowl line despite heavy Seahawks action
By David Purdum
After a week of betting, the point spread on Super Bowl LX was holding steady Saturday, with the Seattle Seahawks remaining consensus 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots.
Sportsbooks have been reporting early lopsided action on the Seahawks to cover the spread. As of Saturday, 75% of the money that had been bet on the Super Bowl spread with DraftKings was on Seattle. In addition, Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is battling a sore shoulder, missed Friday’s practice with an illness.
Despite the early action on the Seahawks and Maye’s ailments, most sportsbooks were holding the line at 4.5.
“At this point, it would require significant additional action on Seattle -4.5, or a meaningful update to Drake Maye’s injury status, for us to consider a move,” Neil Walsh, senior vice president for Hard Rock Bet, told ESPN. “We do not anticipate either occurring for the next few days.”
Jamey Pileggi, head NFL oddsmaker for Circa Sports, said it would take a “six- or seven-figure” bet on the Seahawks at -4.5 to push the line up to -5.
Two Las Vegas sportsbooks — the South Point and the Westgate SuperBook — had bumped the line up to -5 in recent days.
Chris Andrews, the South Point’s veteran sportsbook director, made the adjustment to Seahawks -5 on Thursday, saying that he’d rather be the first sportsbook to make the move than the last. Since making the move to -5, Andrews said the action has been extremely balanced.
“Only $3 separates the teams at five,” Andrews said.
Bookmakers weren’t putting much stock in any impact Maye’s shoulder might have. Andrews said he was going to let the money wagered guide him. He estimated only around 5% of the total money that he expects will be wagered on the Super Bowl had been placed in the first week.
Jan. 29: Smith-Njigba most popular player in early Super Bowl betting
By Doug Greenberg
In early player prop and MVP wagering for Super Bowl LX, one name is rising above the rest: Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Seattle Seahawks wide receiver is currently DraftKings Sportsbook’s most-bet first touchdown scorer (+550) with 15% of the handle, as well as its most-bet anytime touchdown scorer. BetMGM similarly reports Smith-Njigba attracting the most anytime touchdown and first touchdown wagers, making him a liability for the book.
“Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Seattle’s Defense/Special Teams finding paydirt have become bad results for the book right now,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said in an email release.
Both books list the 23-year-old’s anytime touchdown prop at -110, which has already shortened from +100 likely due in part to the heavy action he has received. That said, Smith-Njigba’s implied odds to score a touchdown, defined as “the probability of an outcome projected by Mike Clay [converted] into a money line,” are +181.
Smith-Njigba has by far the highest receiving yards over/under of any player at 95.5, according to DraftKings lines. The sportsbook reports him receiving the most wagers in the most receiving yards market (-185), as well as the most receptions market (-158).
All the early betting fervor around Smith-Njigba extends to the Super Bowl MVP market, where he is also becoming a creeping liability. At +550, he has the shortest odds for a wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP since Larry Fitzgerald in 2009 (+400), and seeks to be the longest winner overall since his current teammate, Cooper Kupp, won it at +600 with the Los Angeles Rams in 2022, according to SportsOddsHistory.
DraftKings says Smith-Njigba is its second-most-bet MVP candidate by handle (19%), while BetMGM reports him receiving by far its most handle (24.9%), making him its largest liability in the market.
Jan. 28: Mattress Mack makes $2 million bet on Super Bowl LX winner
By David Purdum
The largest reported Super Bowl bet so far — $2 million on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl — belongs to a Houston furniture salesman.
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale placed the $2 million bet last week on the AFC to win the Super Bowl with Caesars Sportsbook. At 2-1, McIngvale would win a net $4 million if the Patriots upset the favored Seattle Seahawks. It’s the largest Super Bowl bet that Caesars has taken this year as of Wednesday.
Mattress Mack is hedging his bet with one of his go-to promotions at his Gallery Furniture store: Spend $4,000 on a mattress and gear with McIngvale’s Gallery Furniture, and if the Patriots beat the Seahawks in Super Bowl LX, you get your money back on your purchase.
McIngvale, a beloved figure in Houston for decades, turns 75 in February. He has tied such giveaways to big sports wagers regularly for years. In 2022, he won approximately $75 million on bets he made on the Houston Astros to win the World Series, believed to be one of the largest sports betting payouts in U.S. history.
McIngvale has had mixed results on the Super Bowl, otherwise, winning big on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, but suffering a multimillion-dollar loss on the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022. He also twice lost seven figures on bets on the Houston Cougars men’s basketball team to win the NCAA tournament.
McIngvale hedges his total exposure with any boost in mattress sales generated by the giveaways. He sat out last Super Bowl recovering from heart surgery, but he’s back this season and siding with the underdogs for multiple reasons. Getting plus odds on the underdog helps with the promotion, but he also respects the Patriots’ personnel.
“I really like their quarterback [Drake Maye], coach [Mike Vrabel] and offensive coordinator [Josh McDaniels], plus Robert Kraft is always there,” McIngvale told ESPN on Wednesday.
Last year, there were no disclosed $1 million Super Bowl bets reported by U.S. sportsbooks. This year, there have been at least two, both of which are on the underdog Patriots. On Monday, sportsbook Circa reported taking a $1.1 million wager on the Patriots to win the game outright at +188 odds.
Jan 26: Tracking the largest bets on Super Bowl LX so far
By Doug Greenberg
The matchup for Super Bowl LX is set with the Seattle Seahawks favored over the New England Patriots to take home the Lombardi Trophy. The biggest single event in American sports always brings out the big bets.
Since the summer, bettors have been speculating on the result of this game, and the wagers will finally settle on Feb. 8. Here are some of the largest bets — by odds, stakes and potential winnings — tracked thus far:
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In August, a retail bettor at BetMGM in Nevada placed three separate $50,000 futures on the Seahawks, as first reported by Yahoo Sports and confirmed to ESPN by the sportsbook. Seahawks to make the playoffs at +185 cashed for $92,500 and Seahawks to win the NFC at +2800 cashed for $1.4 million. The bettor still has a Seattle Super Bowl ticket at +6000 odds that will net $3 million if successful.
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On Monday, Circa Sports director of operations Jeffrey Benson announced that the sportsbook took a $1.1 million wager on the Patriots money line at +188 that would net nearly $2.1 million if New England wins outright.
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DraftKings took a $10,000 futures bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl at +8000 that would pay winnings of $800,000.
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In November, BetMGM accepted a $30,000 wager on New England to win the Super Bowl at +2200, a net of $660,000 if successful.
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In late August, Circa took a $100 bet on the exact result of the Super Bowl being Seahawks over Patriots at an astonishing 3100-1. The bettor would win $310,000 if the exacta comes to fruition.
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On Jan. 14, Caesars Sportsbook took a $32,000 wager on the Seahawks at +275 odds for winnings of $88,000; less than two weeks later, it took a $40,000 bet on the Patriots at +260 for a potential net win of $104,000.
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DraftKings accepted a $500 bet on the Seahawks at +65000 to win $32,500.
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At Caesars, a bettor in Nevada placed a $55,000 wager on Patriots +4.5 (-108) for an approximate $51,000 win, while a bettor in New Jersey put in a $36,000 bet on Seahawks -4.5 (-109) for an approximate $33,000 win, according to the sportsbook’s head of football Joey Feazel, who said the wagers came in “within seconds” of the odds going up following the NFC championship.