Joe Osborne
• Senior Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Nov 10, 2026 , 09:27 PM ET
• 4 min read
Joe Osborne is backing the underdog when the Commanders and Giants renew their rivalry on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, NFL.
The Washington Commanders and New York Giants tied in Week 5, and they’ll look to settle the score on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.
My early Commanders vs. Giants predictions lean toward the underdog and the Over.
Let’s get into my NFL picks on Thursday, Nov. 12.
Commanders vs Giants predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Commanders +2.5 | 54% |
| Over 42.5 | 54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Commanders vs Giants spread pick: Commanders +2.5
I won’t make a case for the Washington Commanders as a second-half breakout candidate, but the Commanders aren’t as bad as their 2-5-1 record suggests.
They went down to the wire against the Rams in Week 9, with the game tied late in the third quarter. Washington also outgained Los Angeles in yards per play. Two weeks earlier, the Commanders kept things competitive in San Francisco, losing by six but covering the spread.
This team has shown plenty of fight against strong competition and can hang with the New York Giants, whom they tied in Week 5 despite winning the yards-per-play battle 6.3 to 4.9. If only they understood how a clock operates.
As for the Giants, they’re certainly not as good as their 5-2-1 record indicates. Beyond a quality win over the Texans, they’ve mostly taken care of business against bottom feeders like the Eagles, Cardinals, and Titans.
Add in a shaky quarterback situation on a short week, with J.J. McCarthy dealing with a right hip injury, and I’ll gladly take the points with the Commanders.
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Early Commanders vs Giants total pick: Over 42.5
These are two of the worst red-zone defenses in the NFL, with the Giants ranking 32nd and the Commanders 29th in opponent red-zone touchdown conversion percentage. Expect more touchdowns than field goals when either team gets in close.
On the Commanders’ side, I expect them to move the ball on the ground and create plenty of scoring chances. They rank ninth in yards per rush attempt and should be able to exploit a Giants defense that ranks 27th in yards allowed per rush.
These teams combined for 54 points in their Week 5 matchup. The Giants’ recent 19-11 win over the Eagles might scare some off, but their previous four games all featured at least 48 combined points, averaging 55.75.
Commanders vs Giants odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Commanders vs Giants spread: Giants -2.5
- Commanders vs Giants moneyline: Commanders 46%, Giants 54%
- Commanders vs Giants Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Commanders vs Giants
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: East Rutherford, New Jersey
- Venue: MetLife Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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