Minnesota’s already slim postseason hopes were dealt a significant blow Friday. Twins right-hander Pablo López will have Tommy John surgery next Wednesday, reports The Athletic. This will be López’s second Tommy John surgery, which comes with a 14-18 month rehab. His season is over and he will likely miss the start of next season as well.
“Obviously it’s really disappointing news,” GM Jeremy Zoll told MLB.com after tests revealed a UCL tear in López’s elbow earlier this week. “You really feel for Pablo. As everyone knows, his work ethic, how much he cares about his body, his preparation is second to none. Huge blow for him. He was understandably quite disappointed.”
López, 30 next month, had his first Tommy John surgery as a minor leaguer in 2014. Hamstring, shoulder, and forearm injuries limited him to only 14 starts last season, but, prior to that, López was one of the game’s most reliable workhorses. He made 32 starts every year from 2022-24 and ranked seventh with 559 ⅓ innings those three years.
This is Year 3 of the four-year, $73.5 million extension López signed in April 2023. He is owed $21.5 million in both 2026 and 2027. That salary, plus an injury that will wipe out his entire 2026 and at least part of his 2027, makes López untradeable. At least for the next 18 months or so. Things could change if he looks sharp when he returns next year.
FanGraphs projections put Minnesota’s postseason odds at 26.0% following the López injury. They were considered an unlikely contender coming into the spring with him. Losing him is devastating. Here is the club’s updated rotation depth chart:
- RHP Joe Ryan
RHP Pablo López(will miss 2026 with Tommy John surgery)- RHP Bailey Ober
- RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
- RHP Taj Bradley
- RHP Zebby Matthews
- RHP Mick Abel
- RHP David Festa
There is plenty of talent and upside there, though the lineup is unimposing and the bullpen is short on proven late-inning options. If the Twins contend this year, it will be because their rotation lives up to its potential and props up the offense and bullpen, but López’s injury now takes away an important part of that rotation. A major blow, it is. No doubt.
Ryan has been in trade rumors for more than a year now. If the Twins fall out of the race, he would become the top starter available at the trade deadline. He has two years of control remaining and, as López’s injury shows, two years of control can be reduced to half-a-season really quickly. The longer the Twins hold onto Ryan, the more injury risk they assume.
Minnesota went 70-92 last season and sold hard at midseason, moving 10 members of their active 26-man roster in the days leading up to the trade deadline. López was on the injured list at the time and not a real candidate to be traded.