The 2026 World Baseball Classic is underway with the pool-play phase. Team USA brings a star-studded lineup and stacked rotation into the event, and the Americans enter the tournament as betting favorites to win their first WBC since 2017. Team USA begins its voyage toward a potential championship against Brazil on Friday night in Houston.
Team USA entered the tournament as -800 favorites (via DraftKings) to win Pool B (the other teams are Mexico, Italy, Great Britain and Brazil) and -110 to win the entire WBC.
Each team in each pool plays every other team once for a total of four games. The top two teams from each of the four pools advance to the single-elimination quarterfinals.
There have been pretty stout teams in the past, but this is the most loaded team USA has ever entered into the event, being notably well-rounded with Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt Jr. heading up the position players while aces Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes lead the rotation and Mason Miller anchors the bullpen.
Team USA vs. Brazil
- Time: 8 p.m. ET | Date: Friday, March 6
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston
- TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Starting pitchers: Logan Webb (USA) vs. Bo Takahashi (BRA)
- Odds (via DraftKings): USA -9.5 (-125), O/U: 14
Here are two things to know and a prediction for USA’s bout with Brazil.
Lopsided pitching matchup
USA sends Logan Webb to the mound. No, he’s not Skenes or Skubal, but he’s the next-best pitcher born in the U.S. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting last season and was runner-up in 2023. Remember, the starting pitchers aren’t fully stretched out for regular-season play at this point, plus there’s a 65-pitch limit in this round. Still, Webb is capable of getting through 3-5 innings here, and I’ll guess he goes four scoreless.
On the other side, Brazil will have Bo Takahashi take the ball. He’s a 29-year-old right-hander who reached Triple-A before heading overseas. He spent one year in Korea and is currently a four-year veteran in Japan’s NPB as a reliever, bouncing between the Pacific League (the big leagues) and Eastern League (the minors, basically). Last season, he made 19 appearances in the Eastern League and just four (with a 10.80 ERA) in the Pacific League.
USA’s overwhelming offensive firepower
The name you’ll most likely recognize the most for Brazil is Dante Bichette Jr., whose brother Bo played for the Blue Jays the last several years and now plays for the Mets. Dante, who was a Little League World Series star 21 years ago, didn’t make it past Double-A as a pro.
Team USA, on the other hand, has a three-time MVP in Judge leading the way, along with a 60-homer catcher in Raleigh. Superstar Bobby Witt Jr. is the table-setter for this squad. Kyle Schwarber, who hit 56 homers with 132 RBI last season, resides in the middle of the order along with his Phillies teammate and two-time MVP Bryce Harper.
Here’s the USA lineup:
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS
2. Bryce Harper, 1B
3. Aaron Judge, RF
4. Kyle Schwarber, DH
5. Alex Bregman, 3B
6. Cal Raleigh, C
7. Roman Anthony, LF
8. Byron Buxton, CF
9. Brice Turang, 2B
The bench features power-speed combo, and excellent defender, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Gunnar Henderson, who finished fourth in AL MVP voting in 2024. The backup catcher is Dodgers World Series hero and three-time All-Star Will Smith.
Prediction: USA cruises
The betting run line (think of this as baseball’s version of a “point spread,” for those unfamiliar) is USA by 9.5, via DraftKings. The moneyline is -6000.
Now, there is a mercy rule, but it is 15 runs through five innings or 10 through seven innings. More specifically: Yes, the Americans can cover this run line and still win via the mercy rule. This is my expectation.
I’ll go with… Team USA 14, Brazil 0