NBA Predictions and Moneyline Picks: Monday, Oct. 26

Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets are making noise in the Western Conference to start the season. With Jalen Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks coming to H-Town on Monday, I’m backing Houston to improve to 4-0 in my NBA moneyline picks.

I’m also rolling with the Cavaliers over the Timberwolves, and the Heat over the Mavericks. Here are my latest NBA picks for Oct. 26.

NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 26

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Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.

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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 26

Timberwolves vs Cavaliers: Cavaliers

At 63%, I’ll back the Cleveland Cavaliers at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are coming off Sunday’s game against the Toronto Raptors.

Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have the basketball IQ and skill to exploit Rudy Gobert’s drop coverage through two-man actions.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s jumbo frontcourt featuring Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen should help protect the paint and limit Anthony Edwards’ driving opportunities. That interior advantage is a key reason I favor Cleveland in my Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers predictions.

Wizards vs Hornets: Wizards

With confirmation that Kon Knueppel and Coby White are both out for the Hornets on Monday, I’ll gladly back the Wizards at 43% on Polymarket to pick up the win.

This trade arguably becomes one of my favorite opportunities on the board, as I price Washington closer to a 52% chance of winning with both Knueppel and White sidelined.

I mentioned grabbing the Wizards overnight at a similar probability, hoping one or both players would be ruled out or see reduced minutes. If that happened, the edge on Washington would grow.

The best part is that you haven’t been punished for missing the overnight line. You can still grab the Wizards at 43% with confirmation that both players are out. Charlotte’s rotation uncertainty is also worth weighing in our Wizards vs. Hornets predictions.

Bulls vs Celtics: Celtics

Give me the Celtics at 87%. It’s a steep price against a young team with some exciting pieces, but I make Boston an even stronger favorite at 89%.

This is an extremely difficult matchup for Chicago. Boston has the switchable perimeter defenders in Jayson Tatum, Jordan Walsh, Paul George, and Derrick White to pressure Josh Giddey and disrupt his ability to create advantages for his inexperienced teammates.

If that weren’t enough, the Bulls are without Nic Claxton, leaving Jalen Smith as their primary interior presence against 48 minutes of Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta battling on the glass. Chicago’s thin interior is another factor to consider in our Bulls vs. Celtics predictions.

Mavericks vs Heat: Heat

I can’t say this is the most exciting trade I’ve ever hit the button on. Not many people are eager to grab a 72% price on a team that’s 0-3 to start the season, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo becoming a social media meme.

Still, despite the Heat’s winless start, my projections show one of their strongest edges relative to the market, so I’ll gladly hit the button here.

Dallas’ frontcourt injuries are a major concern against Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo.

The Mavericks will more than likely be without Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively. That leaves Daniel Gafford as their primary rim protector against constant pressure from Miami’s offense. Dallas’ depleted frontcourt also features prominently in our Mavericks vs. Heat predictions.

Suns vs Thunder: Suns

This market has played out exactly as I expected. When we initially wrote this pick, I recommended backing the Suns at 16% on the overnight line because I anticipated the Thunder might rest some regulars on the second night of a back-to-back.

That’s exactly what has happened, with Chet Holmgren ruled out for Oklahoma City. As a result, the Suns are now trading at 26% in the market.

With the updated minutes projections, there’s still value in backing the Suns at 26%, as I price them closer to a 27% chance of winning. If you grabbed them at 16% overnight, you’re sitting in a great position in this market and can find more trading angles in our Suns vs Thunder predictions.

Pacers vs Bucks: Bucks

The Indiana Pacers are playing the second night of a back-to-back, raising questions about Tyrese Haliburton’s availability and potential minutes against the Bucks.

With the season just underway and Haliburton returning from an Achilles injury that sidelined him all of last season, his workload is worth monitoring.

I see a slight edge on Milwaukee at a 39% win probability if Haliburton plays, but that advantage grows if he sees reduced minutes.

T.J. McConnell is also questionable, further weakening Indiana’s backcourt. If either guard misses stretches of the game, the Pacers lose a key offensive engine, magnifying the impact of Haliburton potentially playing reduced minutes in my projections. These availability concerns also factor into our Pacers vs. Bucks predictions.

Hawks vs Rockets: Rockets

This one is close when comparing my projections to the market price, as I make the Rockets 68% favorites. There’s a slight edge on Houston at 65%, but it’s minimal. 

The Hawks and Rockets just faced off Saturday, with Houston earning a road win on the second night of a back-to-back despite missing Fred VanVleet and Marcus Smart.

Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant were both efficient in the first meeting, and I expect more of the same in the rematch. Their player archetypes present difficult matchups for Atlanta’s defense, and having their lead guards back only strengthens Houston’s position. Sengun and Durant’s efficiency in that first meeting is the key angle I’m watching in our Hawks vs. Rockets predictions for the rematch.

Grizzlies vs Jazz: Jazz

Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz are playing the second night of a back-to-back on Monday, raising questions about which players will be available for both teams.

Zach Edey is sitting out Sunday, so I’d expect him to return. My bigger concern is Ty Jerome potentially being load-managed after missing most of last season with an injury. Given Memphis’ limited expectations this season, his workload is worth monitoring.

Jerome is the Grizzlies’ offensive engine, and his absence would have a much bigger impact on their win probability than the market might suggest.

Assuming both starting lineups play, I see a slight edge on Utah at 51%, with the potential for a much bigger advantage depending on Memphis’ injury report. That injury-dependent edge is worth weighing against Memphis’ early-season momentum in our Grizzlies vs. Jazz predictions.

Warriors vs Nuggets: Nuggets

I’m being dead serious: who’s guarding Nikola Jokic in this matchup? The 6-foot-7 Draymond Green, a 40-year-old Al Horford, or rookie Yaxel Lendeborg?

The Warriors have some serious roster concerns to start the season. The good news is Stephen Curry should be available after being load-managed Saturday.

The bad news? Christian Braun and Denver’s other defenders can blitz Curry without worrying about secondary creation from his supporting cast. That helps offset a Nuggets roster built around offense rather than defense, which is why I’m backing Denver at 71%. Our Warriors vs. Nuggets computer picks also focus on Braun’s projected contributions as a scorer, passer, and rebounder.

Today’s NBA moneyline combo

I’m keeping Monday’s combo pretty chalky, pairing the Cavaliers, Heat, and Nuggets together, with Cleveland carrying the lowest win probability at 59%.

The Heat ruined my combo Saturday night with a loss to the Hornets. They were my only incorrect moneyline pick on a 7-1 day, but unfortunately, they were also part of the combo.

I’ll give Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo a chance to redeem themselves Monday, as I love Miami’s 74% win probability against the Mavericks.

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