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Last updated: Thursday, March 12
⛳ THE PLAYERS Championship: Key takeaways
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Crowded at the top: Five players own a share of the first-round lead at 5 under, including Maverick McNealy and Sepp Straka.
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Collin it quits: Collin Morikawa (+1600 to win THE PLAYERS Championship) stunned bettors by withdrawing after just one completed hole, sending sportsbooks scrambling to void wagers on the highly popular option.
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Course: The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass showed its teeth in Round 1, with only 39 players sitting under par following the conclusion of play.
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Weather: Delays threatened play, but only four players failed to complete their opening round (including current co-leader Austin Smotherman, who is 5 under through 17).
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Expected cut: This event was expanded to 123 players on Monday afternoon, with the cut set for after 36 holes to the top 65 and ties. The cut line has ranged from even par the past two years to +3 in the two years before that.
Covers’ round 2 quick pick
Scottie Scheffler to shoot 69 or lower (-125)
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We all know the greatest golfer in the Milky Way Galaxy has been taking Thursdays a little easier lately – and this week was no exception, with Scheffler loping his way to an opening-round 72. But Fridays are his jam; he has the fifth-lowest Round 2 scoring average so far this season (66.80), putting him in prime position to cash this prop.
THE PLAYERS Championship odds: Round 1 leaders
THE PLAYERS Championship runs March 12-15 at TPC Sawgrass.
Below are the Round 1 leaders, along with closing and current odds to win:
|
Golfer |
Score |
Opening Odds |
Current Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Maverick McNealy |
-5 (F) |
+5500 |
+1100 |
|
Lee Hodges |
-5 (F) |
+40000 |
+4000 |
|
Sepp Straka |
-5 (F) |
+4000 |
+1000 |
|
Sahith Theegala |
-5 (F) |
+8000 |
+1400 |
|
Austin Smotherman |
-5 (17) |
+25000 |
+3000 |
|
Justin Thomas |
-4 (F) |
+10000 |
+2200 |
|
Russell Henley |
-4 (F) |
+2500 |
+1000 |
|
Taylor Moore |
-4 (F) |
+35000 |
+5500 |
|
Cameron Young |
-4 (F) |
+3000 |
+1100 |
Odds as of Thursday, March 12, at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Check out the full PLAYERS Championship field here.
Best bets card
❌ Outright: Collin Morikawa to win (+2000): Welp, some tournaments are like that. Hopefully you had your Morikawa wagers voided.
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🟡 Outright: Min Woo Lee to win (+4000): Lee fired an even-par 72 to start his event, slipping to +6000. Nobody ran away with the Round 1 lead, so he’s still in play.
🟢 Top 20: Sepp Straka to finish Top 20 (+188): It’s a much smaller payout, sure, but a Straka T20 would ease much of the sting of that Morkawa WD. And let’s not forget that he’s one of THE PLAYERS Championship sleepers I invested in this week. So far, so great.
🟡 Top 20: Adam Scott to finish Top 20 (+225): It’s early, of course, but a double-bogey finish Thursday stings. He’s T40 at E, but played better than his scorecard reads.
🟢 Top German: Matti Schmid Over Stephan Jaeger (-110): This one’s no contest through 18 holes, with Schmid (-2) enjoying a five-shot edge.
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🟢 Top South American: Jonathan Vegas Over Nico Echavarria & Emiliano Grillo (+300): Vegas (+3) is a shot back of Echavarria (thanks to a quadruple bogey on 17), but with Grillo stumbling to a 12-over 84, this three-way matchup is now a head-to-head prop. I like my chances.
✅ Round 1 matchup: Corey Conners Over Aaron Rai (-118): Conners was surgical with the driver, hitting 12 of 14 fairways while opening with a 3-under 69 to easily outpace Rai (+2).
Round 2 pin locations
Course breakdown: What wins at TPC Sawgrass?
The toast of Pete Dye designs, The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass rewards precise ball-striking, a crafty short game, and course-management acumen. It’s a Par 72 that stretches to just 7,352 yards with four Par 3s and four Par 5s.
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A challenging three-hole finishing stretch has often decided the tournament, featuring the reachable Par-5 16th, the iconic island-green Par-3 17th, and the tough Par-4 18th — all swing holes with real risk/reward opportunities.
Additionally, the unique layout often prompts players to use less than driver on a number of the Par 4s, so driving accuracy is at a premium far more than distance off the tee.
Water hazards defend 17 of the 18 holes, too, and the course is also littered with 88 prohibitively placed bunkers. Add firm, fast overseeded Bermudagrass greens protected by undulated runoffs to the thick rough, and experience and course knowledge are huge assets at TPC Sawgrass.
As a result, there’s no single path to victory at this track. Rory McIlroy’s win last year was more the result of strategically navigating Sawgrass, as opposed to overpowering it.
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Additionally, Scheffler and Justin Thomas paced the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green for their respective 2023 and 2021 wins, while Cameron Smith finished first in true strokes gained putting and 68th in strokes gained tee-to-green during his 2022 win. For comparison, McIlroy respectively ranked fifth and 10th in the two metrics last year.
Finally, the elements have proven to wreak havoc during this event, and the weather forecast is calling for potential thunderstorms on Thursday and possibly again on Sunday.
Players to watch
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Scottie Scheffler: A two-time PLAYERS champion, the World No. 1 is the betting favorite to pick up win No. 2 of the season this week.
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Si Woo Kim: The 2017 winner has an elite tee-to-green game and two more Top 10s in this event on his resume.
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Tom Hoge: While the tee-to-green specialist lacks current form, Hoge has a pair of T3s at TPC Sawgrass and has gained true strokes on approaches in seven consecutive trips to the track.
Key stats & player profiles to target
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True strokes gained approach
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True strokes gained tee-to-green
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Scrambling and true strokes gained around-the-green
Players to watch
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Collin Morikawa: Complete game has been on full display with true strokes gained across the board during a three-event heater consisting of a win, T7, and solo-fifth.
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Min Woo Lee: Heating up with a pair of Top 5s through his past three events, and he’s fourth in Par 5 scoring.
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Sepp Straka: With true strokes gained on approaches in six consecutive events and each of his past three trips to TPC Sawgrass, the four-time PGA Tour winner is a long-shot candidate.
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Collin Morikawa to win (+2000)
In complete control of his entire game during active win-T7-5th stretch while gaining true strokes across the board and pacing this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches across his past 12 rounds.
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Course Fit: Elite ball-striking form for a ball-strikers paradise
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Recent Form: Results and metrics as good as anyone in the field
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Market Value: Expect +2000 odds to drop before Round 1
Risk: Collin Morikawa has topped out with a T10 in this event.
Pick 2: Min Woo Lee to win (+4000)
Min Woo Lee is rolling along a T2-T12-T6 heater with true strokes gained across the board, including ranking seventh in this field in tee-to-green play. I also value him ranking fourth in Par 5 scoring and ninth in adjusted scoring average to start the season.
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Course Fit: Top 20s in two of three trips with a T6 in debut
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Recent Form: T2-T12-T6 run with true strokes gained in all metrics
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Market Value: Long price given current form and course history
Risk: Lone PGA Tour win was in a shallow-field event.
Top finishing position bets
Pick 1: Sepp Straka to finish Top 20 (+188)
Sepp Straka has carded a pair of Top 5s with two more Top 20s across his past six events and is eighth in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ninth on approaches in this field to start the 2026 season.
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Market fit: Price doesn’t fully reflect current form
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Key stat: Straka has finished T14 and T16 in the past two PLAYERS
Risk: Inconsistent results despite elite ball-striking numbers.
Pick 2: Adam Scott to finish Top 20 (+225)
The Aussie is clicking to start 2026 with ranks of 14th in adjusted scoring average and fifth in Par 5 scoring, and Adam Scott also enters on a T4-T11 run and has played this event each of the past 25 years.
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Market fit: Long number considering from and event experience
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Key stat: Scott ranks 14th in adjusted scoring average
Risk: Last Top 20 here was in 2019 PLAYERS.
Nationality prop bets
Top German: Matti Schmid Over Stephan Jaeger (-110)
Matti Schmid heads to this event for the third time on the heels of a T9-T5 stretch, while Stephen Jaeger has missed the cut in four of his past seven events and lost -2.48 true strokes per round to the field in his 2026 Florida debut to miss the cut in the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago.
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Matchup Advantage: Schmid in better current form
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Key Stat: Jaeger is 103rd in Par 5 scoring this season
Risk: Jaeger finished T20 in 2025 PLAYERS.
Top South American: Jonathan Vegas Over Nico Echavarria & Emiliano Grillo (+300)
I view this as a two-horse race because Emiliano Grillo has struggled at The Stadium Course and has missed three of six cuts to start 2026. Additionally, Nico Echavarria hasn’t played the weekend in three trips to this event, while Jonathan Vegas is coming off a T18 last week and has a T3 and T7 on his resume at THE PLAYERS.
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Matchup Advantage: Course knowledge and experience favors Vegas
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Key Stat: Neither Grillio or Echavarria have a Top 10 finish here
Risk: Echavarria just won the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago.
Round 1 matchup bet
Corey Conners Over Aaron Rai (-118)
Corey Conners has a pair of Top 10s in this event including his T6 here last year while gaining true strokes across the board, and he just finished ninth in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approaches last week in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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Matchup Advantage: Conners has beaten Aaron Rai here the past two years
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Key Stat: Rai has lost true stroke putting in four of his past six events
Risk: Rai is also an elite ball-striker with a streaky putter.
Odds movement & market notes
Collin Morikawa has received the highest betting handle through BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon, and as expected, his odds have dropped considerably from an opening +2200 to +1600.
World No. 1 and two-time PLAYERS champion Scottie Scheffler has the highest ticket count (9.7%) at the shop and is second in betting handle, followed by Ludvig Aberg, and Aberg has also seen his odds plummet from an opening +2800 to +2000.
Here are additional notable betting insights ahead of Round 1:
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Rory McIlroy from +1100 to +1600
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Si Woo Kim from +3000 to +2200
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Xander Schauffele from +2200 to +2500
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Min Woo Lee from +4000 to +3300
How to watch & tee times
How to watch (All Times ET):
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Thursday-Friday: 1-7 p.m, Golf Channel
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Saturday: 2-7 p.m., NBC, Peacock
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Sunday: 1-6 p.m., NBC, Peacock
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Tee times:
Groupings and tee times for Rounds 1 and 2.
Featured Groups:
THE PLAYERS Championship betting FAQ
When is the 2026 PLAYERS Championship?
The 2026 edition of THE PLAYERS is Thursday, March 12, to Sunday, March 15.
Where will the 2026 PLAYERS Championship be played?
The 2026 PLAYERS is being played at The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
What is the “Florida Swing?”
THE PLAYERS is the third event of the “Florida Swing,” which is a series of tournaments played on the state’s challenging Bermuda grass courses.
Who is the 2026 PLAYERS Championship favorite?
World No. 1 and two-time winner Scottie Scheffler was the pre-tournament betting favorite in the THE PLAYERS odds at BetMGM.
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What are the most popular bets at the 2026 PLAYERS Championship?
Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg received the highest pre-tournament betting handle and ticket count to win the 2026 PLAYERS Championship at BetMGM.
What are THE PLAYERS Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do THE PLAYERS Championship matchup bets work?
When betting THE PLAYERS matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
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What is cut line at the PLAYERS Championship?
THE PLAYERS is a full-field event featuring 123 players. The cut will be made after 36 holes to the Top 65 and ties.
Are THE PLAYERS Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You’ll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for THE PLAYERS; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
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