Kyle LaRusic
• Betting Analyst
5+ years betting experience
Updated:
Sep 7, 2026 , 10:30 PM ET
• 4 min read
An improved defense and a hungry Joe Burrow have our expert backing the Bengals in their Week 1 matchup against Tampa Bay.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Joe Burrow (9) signals a play in the first quarter of the NFL Preseason game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Detroit Lions.
Week 1 of NFL action hits our screens this week, and the schedule makers football gods have blessed us with an exciting quarterback matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Cincinnati Bengals.
My early Buccaneers vs. Bengals predictions and NFL picks believe Joe Burrow & Co. can outscore Baker Mayfield in what will be a high-scoring affair.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 13, from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Buccaneers vs Bengals predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Bengals -2.5 | 58% |
| Over 50.5 | 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Buccaneers vs Bengals spread pick: Bengals -2.5
Kalshi probability: 58%
The Cincinnati Bengals made some much-needed improvements on defense in the offseason after surrendering an abysmal 28.9 points per game in 2025.
The additions of Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Jonathan Allen will help immediately, and a healthy Joe Burrow has plenty of weapons at his disposal to burn any opponent.
Cincy also opted to bring back all five starters from last year’s O-line, which could pay off after the late-season emergence of LG Dylan Fairchild and RT Amarius Mims.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost several of their franchise cornerstones in the offseason, and a new OC in Zac Robinson means it may take this offense a couple of quarters to get going.
I’m taking -2.5 at 58% rather than -3.5 at 52% because of the key number. Because if the Bengals win by exactly three, I’m going to get angry, and you won’t like me when I’m angry…
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Early Buccaneers vs Bengals total pick: Over 50.5
Kalshi probability: 49%
Thanks to a toe injury, “Joe Brrrrrr” played in only eight games last season. However, in those outings, the Bengals averaged 26.8 points per game — good for eighth in the league.
I’m all in on Cincy’s offense this year, with Burrow setting up Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Chase Brown for success. Our very own Jason Logan thinks the Bengals QB can win MVP in his AFC North preview.
While I did mention Cincinnati’s defense will look improved, I don’t expect it to be looking like the Rams by any means.
The Bengals gave up 235.1 yards per game through the air last year, and those problems don’t just disappear. Baker Mayfield is good enough to exploit that with steady receivers of his own.
I expect a 30-24 final score, and would play the Over to 52.5.
Buccaneers vs Bengals odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Buccaneers vs Bengals spread: Bengals -3.5 (52%)
- Buccaneers vs Bengals moneyline: Buccaneers 65%, Bengals 35%
- Buccaneers vs Bengals Over/Under: 50.5 (49%)
How to watch Buccaneers vs Bengals
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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