In WBC championship between U.S. and Venezuela, which team has the edge?

Before this World Baseball Classic started, the favorites were obvious. There was defending champion Samurai Japan. There was Team USA, stronger than ever, with legit pitchers committed to the roster. There was the Dominican Republic, whose roster is always as strong as anyone’s, even without a WBC title since 2013 to show for it.

It would have been easy to forget about Venezuela amid the cascade of star power at the top of this tournament field. But the Venezuelans announced themselves with an upset win over Japan, held serve against the Italians and are one win away from delivering their country’s signature baseball moment.

“We want to give that joy to the people,” Venezuelan manager Omar Lopez said Monday. “We would be contributing to the mental health, life of our people in Venezuela.”

For Team USA, this is a chance to avenge the heartbreak of its loss from three years ago. And for the most part, save their first-round loss and all the drama that came with it, the Americans have so far done what they came here to do. The U.S-Venezuela game will be played Tuesday night on American soil, but in front of what should be a Venezuela-leaning crowd at loanDepot Park in Miami.

The Americans will have home-field advantage as a result of a coin flip done to break a tie in winning percentage with Venezuela.

Everyone projected a big-time matchup, and they got it; just not the one that was expected.

Lineups

After shuffling things around against the Dominican Republic, manager Mark DeRosa will almost certainly ride the same lineup that put the U.S. in the championship game. Against the Dominicans, Gunnar Henderson got the start at third base, due in large part to his 7-for-9 career line against Luis Severino. That familiarity paid off, as Henderson swatted a solo home run against Severino, one of only two runs scored by the U.S. He also made a few crafty plays at the hot corner, making it a no-brainer that he gets the start again Tuesday.

Will Smith’s ability to navigate Team USA’s relievers through some tightrope acts, plus his remarkably better line so far this WBC, gives him the start again behind the plate. Otherwise, it’s business as usual for Team USA.

Fun fact: Only two players in the Venezuela lineup have faced Nolan McLean during the New York Mets prospect’s brief MLB career. But the two that have, both have home runs. Ronald Acuña is 1-for-2 vs. with a homer, and Eugenio Suárez hit a homer off him in McLean’s big-league debut.

Then, there’s Luis Arráez, another Venezuelan player whose power has added an offensive element to their team. He has two in this WBC and had two more in 2023, despite posting just 36 long balls total over his seven-year career. 

Maikel Garcia had a 5.8 WAR in 2025 and is one of the game’s best players, yet he doesn’t get talked about enough. The Venezuelan lineup isn’t as deep or as powerful as that of Team USA, but there aren’t any major holes in it, either.

Venezuela has an established big-league hitter at every position in its lineup, including some very high-profile stars. But Team USA’s lineup is still superior at nearly every position. Just because most of the American stars are highlighted in this graphic, however, doesn’t mean this is a lopsided matchup. Most of these were razor-thin choices that won’t necessarily make a difference in a one-game, winner-take-all scenario. Some of the top American stars, such as Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper, have been maligned for their inability to win the big game. Tuesday is an opportunity for them to shift that narrative.

Despite his availability, Minnesota Twins right-hander Joe Ryan will not get the start in the finale. In fact, he won’t pitch at all. That job belongs to McLean, who was tagged for three runs in three innings in his lone WBC start. MLB’s No. 8-ranked prospect, per The Athletic’s Keith Law, has electric stuff, but he might not be in for long in the finale, particularly if any signs of trouble bubble over.

Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t been a very good big-league pitcher since 2023, and had ERAs north of 5.00 over his last two years with the Arizona Diamondbacks. His expected stats based on quality of contact allowed have, at times, made him one of the least effective pitchers in MLB, all while batting a declining strikeout rate. In one game, anything can happen. But it’s a tough matchup against this particular U.S. lineup, and the Venezuelans should be prepared to go to their strong bullpen early, if needed.

Edge: USA

Neither of these starters was any good in their first outings of the WBC. McLean may well be the better pitcher who will have the better season. But after allowing three earned runs in three innings, including two homers given up, it’s hard to say he has the edge. Then again, Rodriguez allowed three earned runs over 2 2/3 innings. Rodriguez has more experience. McLean might be the better pitcher right now. It’s close, but Rodriguez’s overall downward trajectory, combined with his poor opening outing, gives McLean the slight edge.

Bullpens

So far, new bullpen additions Jeff Hoffman, Will Vest and Tim Hill have not made an appearance this WBC. That should change on Tuesday. Tyler Rogers, who pitched Sunday, only needed two pitches to collect two outs, so he should similarly be available. It’s unlikely that DeRosa will call upon David Bednar once again, and it won’t be known until first pitch whether Mason Miller will be available to close.

Still, there are enough fresh arms that the U.S. should have enough to weather a potential bullpen game.

The Venezuelan bullpen has been nails in this tournament. The only downside for them is how heavily their best arms were worked in their 4-2 semifinal win over Italy. In order to win Tuesday, some of their arms will have to pitch in back-to-back games — though that will probably be a question that loops in the players’ big-league clubs. It will be interesting to see if Enmanuel De Jesus is available after pitching 2 1/3 innings against Japan on Saturday. If Venezuela can’t go to some of its key relief arms, it will spell trouble.

EDGE: Venezuela 

This will be all about availability. If Venezuela has its best arms available, it’s going to have the edge. If the Venezuelans don’t, Team USA and its recent additions will make it fresher and better. If Team USA does not have Bednar and Miller, then it will be vulnerable at the back end of the game, particularly if McLean does not make a deep start. 

Prediction

Venezuela 6, U.S. 3

The overall offensive numbers on Team USA aren’t awful. But a chunk of that is facing Brazil and Great Britain, whose arms aren’t largely MLB quality. For the most part, this lineup, chock full of All-Stars and Hall of Famers, has struggled to put up crooked numbers. Venezuela’s pitching is a little beat up after a tight win over Italy, and has one fewer day to rest. But the Venezuelans still have a great bullpen and a good-enough lineup. They’ll have significant fan support in Miami and have already slayed the defending champions. The U.S. will be the favorite, but Venezuela will take home the hardware. — Blum

Prediction U.S. 7, Venezuela 1

Team USA tees off against a tired Venezuelan bullpen. No need for Miller to pitch for the third time in five days. The power bats that were muted against the Dominican Republic put on a show in the WBC finale. Roman Anthony wins the WBC MVP award. — Flores