Valspar Championship Odds, Picks and Predictions 2026: Copperhead Fits Matt Fitzpatrick

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With three-time PGA Tour winner Akshay Bhatia withdrawing from the Valspar Championship on Wednesday, the field hitting the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort just got a little weaker.

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While the top of the odds board has a new look, Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick and rising star Ryo Hisatsune remain two of my favorite golf picks for the Florida Swing finale.

⛳ Valspar Championship: Key takeaways

• Best early bet: Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1600) – Game fits the demands of the Copperhead Course and just gained true strokes across the board at THE PLAYERS to finish second.

• Best early value: Ryo Hisatsune to win (+4000) – Finished T4 here last year and carded his fourth Top 20 across six events while ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week.

• Wednesday withdraw: Akshay Bhatia (+2000) – The recent winner carried the highest betting handle at BetMGM and will not be playing this week, so a significant odds adjustment is coming.

• Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) is a 7,352-yard Par 71 featuring narrow, treelined fairways with plenty of doglegs that have traditionally rewarded accurate ball-strikers who take advantage of the four Par 5s.

• Weather: Forecasts continue to call for favorable scoring conditions of mostly sunny and dry weather and minimal wind throughout the tournament.

• Expected cut: The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between +1 and +3 the past three years.

Valspar Championship odds: favorites & full field

The Valspar Championship runs March 19-22 at Copperhead Course. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Odds as of Wednesday, March 18, at 5:35p.m. ET.

Check out the full Valspar Championship field.

Best bets card

• Outright: Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1600): Course fit and enters first in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field in 2026.

• Outright: Ryo Hisatsune to win (+4000): Finished T4 here in 2025 and ranks second in true strokes gained tee-to-green in this field this season.

• Matchup: Brooks Koepka over Ben Griffin (-118): Both current statistical form and recent finishes favor Koepka, with Griffin missing the cut in back-to-back events.

• Top 20: Sahith Theegala (+160): Rolling to the tune of three Top 10s and two more Top 25s across his past seven events while ranking 12th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

• Top 40: Wyndham Clark (+100): Major champ is seventh in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ninth on approaches across his past three events.

• Top 40: Alex Smalley (-110): Three Top 40s across his past four events while gaining true strokes across the board.

• Top French: Matthieu Pavon over Adrien Saddier (+110): Pavon has topped Saddier in five of six 2026 tournaments they’ve both played in.

• Xander Schauffele Round 1 special: To shoot 69 or lower (+100): The betting favorite has fired a score of 69 or lower in seven of his 12 rounds in this event.

Catch our Valspar Championship longshot predictions and picks.

Course breakdown: What wins at Copperhead Course?

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) is a difficult 7,352-yard Par 71 featuring narrow, treelined fairways with plenty of doglegs, water hazards, and bunkers. The track has traditionally rewarded accurate ball-strikers who take advantage of the four Par 5s, and there are also five Par 3s ranging between 195-235 yards.

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Copperhead has also played more difficult the past three years, with the winning score ranging between -10 and -12, after Sam Burns carded -17 in both of his back-to-back wins in 2022 and 2023.

Additionally, this layout plays longer than its yardage because of the doglegs and often penalizing rough. Accuracy off the tee and strong long-iron play are musts with one of the most common approach distances historically being from 175-200 yards. Designer Larry Packard has 12 doglegs on the layout, including signature double doglegs on four holes. The elevation changes are also atypical of the three most recent stops on the Florida Swing.

Excellent ball-striking had been a trait of each of the eight winners from 2015 through 2023, as they all finished Top 6 in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

Peter Malnati finished 13th in the metric while ranking third in true strokes gained putting in 2024, while 2025 winner Viktor Hovland respectively ranked 11th and second.

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Finally, while The Snake Pit garners desired attention as a demanding three-hole finish, the entire course has been challenging the past three years, with the rough grown higher and closer to the putting surfaces.

• Narrow, treelined fairways and doglegs often take driver out of play

• Overseeded Bermudagrass featured throughout

• Five long Par 3s (195-235 yards)

• Course knowledge and experience are rewarded

• The Snake Pit is one of the most difficult finishing stretches on tour

Players to watch

• Jordan Spieth: The 2015 winner is beginning to string together a nice run of solid approach play and excellent putting.

• Justin Thomas: Finished solo second here last year for his fourth Top 10 in the event, and his game flashed at THE PLAYERS during a T8 finish.

• Brooks Koepka: A T9-T13 run entering the week, Koepka’s trending in the right direction, and will be playing this event for the first time since his T12 in 2022.

Key stats & player profiles to target

• True strokes gained on approach

• Scrambling/true strokes gained around the green

• True strokes gained tee-to-green

Players to watch

• Matt Fitzpatrick: Finished second in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week in THE PLAYERS and ranks sixth in birdie-or-better leaders and 19th in adjusted scoring average this PGA Tour season.

• Xander Schaueffle: The betting favorite has carded a T12-T5-T12 run in this event, and he’s carded four consecutive Top 25s while gaining true strokes across the board after finishing third at THE PLAYERS.

• Ryo Hisatsune: Carded his fourth Top 20 across his past six events while ranking third in true strokes gained tee-to-green last week, and he’s gained true strokes off the tee and on approach in each of his past seven events.

Outright picks: winners to bet

Pick 1: Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1600)

Matt Fitzpatrick’s game suits the demands of the Copperhead Course, and he just gained true strokes across the board to finish second in THE PLAYERS and climb to sixth in birdie or better percentage on tour this season.

• Course Fit: Fitzpatrick has a T5 here in 2022 on his resume

• Recent Form: Elite tee-to-green game is producing birdies in bunches

• Market Value: Properly positioned near top of betting boards

Risk: Fitzpatrick’s missed the cut in two of three starts here.

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Pick 2: Ryo Hisatsune to win (+4000)

Ryo Hisatsune finished T4 in this event last year while gaining true strokes across the board, and he’s carded four Top 20 across his past six events after finishing third in true strokes gained tee-to-green in THE PLAYERS.

• Course Fit: Carded a T4 here last year

• Recent Form: Four Top 20s across past six events

• Market Value: His odds will be lower by Round 1 tee time

Risk: Hisatsune has never won a PGA Tour event.

Matchup & head-to-head bets

Brooks Koepka over Ben Griffin (-118)

Ben Griffin has missed the cut in consecutive events and failed to crack the Top 25 in his three prior tournaments, while Brooks Koepka enters the week on a T9-T13 run, fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green this season.

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• Matchup Advantage: Current statistical form and recent finishes favor Koepka

• Key Stat: Griffin’s 52nd in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026

Risk: Griffin climbed to eighth in the World Rankings in 2025.

Best top finishing position bets

Pick 1: Sahith Theegala to finish Top 20 (+160)

Sahith Theegala is rolling along a solid run with three Top 10s and two more Top 25s across his past seven events while ranking 12th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, 11th on approach, and 21st in putting, and he finished T7 in his 2022 debut at Copperhead.

• Market Fit: Plus-money odds for a legit contender to win

• Key Stat: Ranks 15th in adjusted scoring average in 2026

Risk: Theegala finished T36 here last season.

Pick 2: Wyndham Clark to finish Top 40 (+100)

The ball-striking numbers pop for Wyndham Clark with ranks of seventh in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and ninth on approaches across his past three events, and he also carded a solo fifth at the Copperhead Course in 2023.

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• Market Fit: Surprised to land a major champion at +100 in this field

• Key Stat: Seventh in field in true stokes gained tee-to-green across past three events

Risk: Putting has been a shortcoming for Clark.

Pick 3: Alex Smalley to finish top 40 (-110)

Alex Smalley has three Top 40s across his past four events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking 12th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

• Market Fit: Odds don’t reflect improved results and ball-striking

• Key Stat: 42nd in 2026 adjusted scoring average

Risk: Smalley has missed the cut in three of four trips to Copperhead.

Top French

Matthieu Pavon over Adrien Saddier (+110)

Adrien Saddier has topped out with a T56 to start the 2026 PGA Tour season, and he’ll be playing at Copperhead for the first time. While it’s also been anything but roses and sunshine for Matthieu Pavon, he’s topped his countryman in five of six events they’ve both played.

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• Matchup Advantage: Saddier is disadvantage in Valspar debut

• Key Stat: Pavon has beat Saddier in five of six 2026 events

Risk: Pavon just missed THE PLAYERS cut by three strokes.

Xander Schauffele Round 1 special

To shoot 69 or lower (+100)

Betting favorite Xander Schauffele has fired a score of 69 or lower in seven of his 12 rounds in this event, and he’s heading to the Copperhead Course on the heels of four consecutive Top 25 finishes while gaining true strokes across the board.

• Market Fit: Advantage of morning tee time isn’t priced in enough

• Key Stat: Fourth in this field in 2026 adjusted scoring average

Risk: Highest wind gusts are forecasted for Round 1.

Odds movement & market notes

A major adjustment to the Valspar odds is coming Wednesday following Akshay Bhatia withdrawing from the event. He had received the highest betting handle at BetMGM as of Wednesday morning, so there stands to be a major shakeup at the top of the board.

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As expected, Brooks Koepka has also been a popular target for punters, and he’s received the highest ticket count to win this week and second-highest handle.

Austin Smotherman, Sahith Theegala and Jacob Bridgeman follow Koepka as the next three in betting handle.

Smotherman is the largest liability at BetMGM and has the largest odds move at the top of the board. He’s dropped from an opening +6600 to +5000, and Bud Cauley has also seen a notable dip from +8000 to +6600 at the shop.

How to watch & tee times

How to watch:

• Thursday and Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel

• Saturday and Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET, Golf Channel, and 3-6 p.m. ET, NBC

Tee times:

Valspar Championship betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Valspar Championship?

The 2026 edition of the Valspar Championship is Thursday, March 19, to Sunday, March 22.

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Where will the 2026 Valspar Championship be played?

The 2026 Valspar Championship is being played at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, Florida.

What is the “Florida Swing?”

The Valspar Championship is the fourth and final event of the “Florida Swing,” which is a series of tournaments played on the state’s challenging Bermudagrass courses.

Who is the 2026 Valspar Championship favorite?

Xander Schauffele is the pre-tournament betting favorite in the Valspar Championship odds at BetMGM, followed by Matt Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland.

What are Valspar Championship FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.

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How do Valspar Championship matchup bets work?

When betting Valspar Championship matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

What is the Valspar Championship cut line?

The Top 65 players and ties after Round 2 (36 holes) will advance to the weekend, and the cut has been between +1 and +3 the past three years.

Are Valspar Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You’ll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Valspar Championship; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

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