Updated:
Apr 17, 2026 , 07:44 PM ET
• 4 min read
Which of this year’s most anticipated titles will outshine the others to become the top grossing movie of 2026? These films currently offer the best value on the prediction markets.
We are inching closer to summer blockbuster season. Can you feel it?!
Which of these films will make the most dough in 2026? And which films currently offer the best value on the prediction markets?
Woody, Buzz and co. are certain to win over viewers once again, but at present they look less likely to rake in the kind of profits needed to top this list. For that, it seems a few superpowers might be needed. You know, the kind of powers possessed by someone like… Spider-Man?
We’ve analyzed the prediction markets to see which films are piquing bettors’ curiosity right now, and which titles have the potential to cause an upset before the year is out.
Here’s how things stand at the moment. But be aware: there’s a long time to go before Dec. 31 rolls around, and we can expect plenty of movement in this market as the months go by.
Prediction Markets: Top Grossing Movie of 2026
| Title | Chance | Yes |
|---|---|---|
|
🕷️ Spider-Man: Brand New Day |
49% | 50¢ |
|
💥 Avengers: Doomsday |
27% | 27¢ |
| 🍄 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 8% | 8¢ |
| 🗡️ The Odyssey | 3% | 3.8¢ |
| 🤠 Toy Story 5 | 3% | 3.8¢ |
Data provided by Polymarket – accurate as of April 17
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🕷️ Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Probability 49% | Yes 50¢
Spidey will be back on the big screen this July, and if prediction markets are correct, the latest Marvel masterpiece is set to be this year’s definitive summer blockbuster.
Co-produced by Columbia Pictures and Marvel Studios, the follow-up to No Way Home follows Peter Parker’s journey as he rediscovers his purpose beyond fame.
No Way Home remains one of the highest grossing movies ever seen. By mid-2022, the title had surpassed the $2 billion barrier, which is why the next installment in the story has already emerged as a favorite in the race to become the box office success of 2026.
💥 Avengers: Doomsday | Probability 27% | Yes 27¢
We’ve still got a while to wait for this one, but Marvel Comics has promised another huge hit before the year is out. The Avengers will be back on the big screen this December.
Details on the next Avengers film remain scant at present, but Tom Hiddleston, who returns as Loki, has said it’ll be “surprising,” with a story that’s “never been done before.”
The last major Avengers film, Avengers: Endgame made almost $2.8 billion and went on to become the highest-grossing movie of all time, so this movie is expected to do incredibly well. But its release could come too late in the year to challenge Spider-Man or Mario.
🍄 The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | Probability 8% | Yes 8¢
If there’s one character that could topple our favorite web-slinger from the no.1 spot, it’s the world’s most famous plumber. Mushroom Kingdom’s finest returned in April, with the release of a new movie based on the 2007 game of the same name.
The Mario buzz climbed in the month of March as movie trailers and TV ads were everywhere. In early March, Mario climbed to a high of 45 cents but has since dropped back down to 31 cents.
The third Super Mario Bros. movie follows a live-action film released in 1993 and the smash hit of 2023: The Super Mario Bros. Movie. The latter grossed over $1.36 billion worldwide. While that’s nowhere near the amount made by No Way Home, it was more than enough to make it the most profitable video game movie ever seen.
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie has already grossed $641.6 million worldwide, but it’s projected that Spider-Man will top that number with ease.
🤠 Toy Story 5 | Probability 3% | Yes 3.8¢
A new threat to playtime is incoming. This June, Woody, Buzz, Jessie and the gang are set to be introduced to technology for the first time, as they come face to face with Lilypad.
The story follows the traditional toys’ fight for the attention of Bonnie, with Tom Hanks (Woody), Tim Allen (Buzz), Joan Cusack (Jessie) and Tony Hale (Forky) all back as the voices of Pixar’s best characters (ever!).
The Toy Story film franchise is one of Pixar’s most popular and most successful. Overall, it’s grossed well over $3 billion. Both Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 made over $1 billion individually. Given the fact that Toy Story 3 was released back in 2010, that’s a considerable feat.
Currently, the price of a yes for Toy Story 5 remains low, at 3.8¢. But this is a movie with serious potential. It’s one to watch in this market.
🐸 Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | Probability 2% | Yes 1.8¢
Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin and his young apprentice Grogu take on the remaining Imperial warlords at cinemas this May.
This feature film is a follow-up to the Disney+ series, which make things complicated when it comes to predicting its box office success.
Some commentators are hugely optimistic about the movie’s chances, suggesting it could make over $1 billion on release. But its connection to the series might make it less of a cinematic event than previous movies.
It all hinges on how well marketed the film is as we head towards its release, and how it’s received in those critical first days.