Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Nov 8, 2026 , 07:40 AM ET
• 4 min read
Jason Logan breaks down his best NFL picks for the Bengals-Falcons international showcase in Madrid in Week 9, including Tee Higgins erupt in Spain.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Joe Burrow, Bijan Robinson
The Cincinnati Bengals pack their bags for a historic international clash as 3.5-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9, with kickoff set for 9:30 a.m. ET at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain.
While Cincinnati rides a three-game winning streak into this matchup behind Joe Burrow’s red-hot play, our top Bengals vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks examine whether the Falcons’ feisty secondary can limit big plays, opening up prime betting edges on Tee Higgins as the Bengals look to extend their momentum across the pond.
Here are my best bets and NFL picks ahead of Sunday, Nov. 8.
Bengals vs Falcons prediction today: Falcons +3.5
The Cincinnati Bengals are rolling right now, but those victories have come against some weaker opponents.
They took down bottom-feeders like Miami and Tennessee (barely), while needing a second-half rally to overcome Baltimore and a backup QB. There was also a bye in Week 6 giving Cincy a breather.
I believe the Bengals should be the favorites in Spain, but not by this many points.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a strange Week 8 loss in which weather played a huge role in the result. That included four interceptions from QB Michael Penix Jr., who had only one INT in the previous five starts.
I’m not discounting Atlanta too much for that rain-soaked squash at Tampa Bay. Rather, I see the Falcons facing one of the easier defenses on their recent schedule, with the Bengals stop unit slipping the past three games.
The most notable dip has come defending the run. The Bengals are allowing 5.1 yards per carry in their last three outings (second most in the NFL). Not what you want to see when staring down Bijan Robinson.
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Bengals vs Falcons combo
The Bengals should be favorites, but their current three-game win streak is very puffed up, and Atlanta poses a stiffer test on a neutral field. I’ll take Atlanta on the other side of a field goal.
Chase Brown hasn’t found paydirt since Week 1. The Falcons have given up 11 total touchdowns to running backs and Brown is a dual-threat option, either running it past the goal line or catching a TD strike.
Tee Higgins could be the best WR2 in the league. He’s the top-rated WR versus man coverage and faces plenty of one-on-one coverage from Atlanta. Projections call for another big day, with most models north of 80 yards receiving from Higgins.
Bengals vs Falcons combo
- Falcons +3.5
- Chase Brown touchdown
- Tee Higgins 75+ receiving yards
Bengals vs Falcons touchdown scorer: Chase Brown
Cincinnati running back Chase Brown has to go all the way to Spain to give starving fantasy owners his first touchdown since Week 1.
Joe Burrow was slinging it against Tennessee last week, with five passing touchdowns. And when it looked like Brown could get one last shot at the end zone in the fourth quarter, Burrow scrambled for a rushing score of his own.
The Falcons got bullied on the ground by the Bucs in the rain last week and have allowed eight rushing TDs to running backs along with three receiving strikes from rival RBs.
Brown had 101 all-purpose yards in the win over the Titans, so he’s a threat to run or catch for six points. His touchdown forecasts for Week 9 sit as high as 64%.
TOP PICK
Bengals vs Falcons player prop: Tee Higgins 75+ receiving yards
Bengals receiver Tee Higgins is coming off a monster day versus Tennessee, drawing 11 targets for 10 catches and 155 yards.
Higgins could be the best WR2 in the league, with Ja’Marr Chase drawing the ire of the secondary and leaving the 6-foot-4 Higgins with softer matchups. He gets a perfect pairing against Atlanta in Madrid.
The Falcons rank 24th in DVOA defending WR2s, allowing an average of 54.6 yards per game to the position. This secondary is also running a high rate of man coverage (10th most), and Higgins currently rates as the No. 1 WR versus man at PFF.
Projections for Higgins range from 74 to 88 yards on Sunday morning, with most models north of 80 yards. My number comes out to 81.5 receiving yards in Madrid.
COVERS INTEL: Higgins averages 19.4 air yards per reception against an Atlanta secondary oozing the ninth most air yards to opponents and 23 “explosive passes” entering Week 9.Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Bengals vs. Falcons market trends
Here is how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Bengals vs. Falcons prediction.
Bengals vs Falcons odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bengals -3.5 | Falcons +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 (50%) | Under 52.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Bengals 61% | Falcons 39%
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Bengals vs Falcons weather
Santiago Bernabeu Stadium has a fully retractable roof, so weather isn’t an issue. Even if they open the roof, Sunday’s forecast for Madrid calls for cloudy skies and a 25% chance of rain with winds topping out at 10 mph gusts.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bengals vs Falcons trend to know
The Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Falcons.
How to watch Bengals vs Falcons
| Location | Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Sunday, Nov. 8, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
Bengals vs Falcons latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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