Brad Senkiw
• News Editor
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 24, 2026 , 02:05 PM ET
• 4 min read
Bettors benefited from a volatile first round, which included Jeremiyah Love at No. 3, Jermod McCoy falling out, and Mansoor Delane rising.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love is selected by the Arizona Cardinals as the number three pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium. Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The NFL draft makes for great entertainment for fans and bettors, but not always for sports betting operators.
Key Takeaways
- Draft spots for Jermod McCoy and Mansoor Delane hit Circa hard.
- BetMGM saw prop markets on the number of running backs and quarterbacks go over.
- Underdog David Bailey ended up being the No. 2 pick in a wild market.
With plenty of low odds to entice the public, draft markets rarely go the way of the sportsbooks. Thursday night’s first round was yet another example of that.
“Another year, another losing draft,” Mike Palm, vice president of operations at Circa, The D, and Golden Gate sportsbooks in Las Vegas, told Covers on Friday. “We lost just the right amount for (owner) Derek (Stevens) to continue letting us book it next year.”
Palm said the retail and online operator took small losses on two of draft night’s bigger surprises: Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love going third overall to the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams taking Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at No. 13.
The sportsbook suffered bigger losses on Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy falling out of the first round, as bettors hammered the over on his draft selection. The Kansas City Chiefs moving up to No. 6 to snag LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane also proved costly for Circa, as bettors targeted the under on a prospect picked to go later in the top 15.
Palm said the under for Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano, who went ninth overall to the Cleveland Browns, was a “decent winner, but hard to find many of those.”
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Going over
BetMGM reported a “mixed bag” of results from Thursday night.
“Bettors won on Love being the third pick and Ty Simpson being drafted by the Rams,” BetMGM senior trading manager Christian Cipollini told Covers. “Fernando Mendoza being the first pick was one of the best results for the sportsbook. Mendoza opened +10,000, but his odds moved quickly and were -10,000 for a long time.”
Simpson’s early call cashed tickets for the over 1.5 quarterbacks in the first round, a popular bet before Thursday night. Simpson was +800 to go to the Rams, who were looking for the heir apparent to Matthew Stafford, and his draft position closed at 29.5.
The under easily hit, but Simpson to the Steelers at +1,600, another widely bet market at BetMGM, went the way of the sportsbook.
THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OF THE 2026 NFL DRAFT 🤯
Ty Simpson will get to learn under Matthew Stafford until it’s his time to shine in Los Angeles 🐏 pic.twitter.com/UHNqK2dnah
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) April 24, 2026
Love, meanwhile, gained real steam as the third overall pick among bettors. His odds to go in that spot were +800 a week before the draft and closed at -110. He also led the No. 3 pick market with over 30% of the handle leading up to Thursday.
Combined with college teammate Jadarian Price being taken with the last pick of the first round by the Seattle Seahawks, 87% of the bets and 61% of the money hit on the over 1.5 running backs selected Thursday.
Battle at No. 2
One of the most intriguing NFL draft betting markets leading up to Thursday was the No. 2 selection held by the New York Jets. Draft pundits and bettors flipped-flopped for two days on which pass-rusher would be taken after Mendoza: Texas Tech’s David Baliley or Ohio State’s Arvell Reese.
The Jets ultimately decided on Bailey, who had the second-most tickets for any draft prop at BetMGM, which took more money on No. 2 than any other market. Reese was third in bets and second in handle, just ahead of Bailey, who closed at +175 to be selected second overall.
Reese on Thursday morning was +115 to go second overall and moved to -250 right before the draft. He ended up going fifth to the Giants with odds of +2,000.
Big hitters
BetMGM had Delane at +10,000 at one point to go sixth overall, making him one of Thursday’s biggest long shots for a small number of bettors. He was listed at +4,000 on Wednesday and was getting around 2% of sixth overall tickets and less than 1% of the handle.
Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate going fourth overall to the Tennessee Titans was another major shake-up. Love was the clear favorite in that market pre-draft, and Tate had odds as high as +5,000 on Thursday at BetMGM. On Wednesday, he had received less than 7% of the handle.
Fano was +700 to go ninth, while Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa was +750 to go 10th to the New York Giants.
Winners and losers
Of the top three most-bet players to go in the first round at BetMGM, only San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson had his name called Thursday. The Miami Dolphins took him with the 27th pick. He was getting 7.9% of the bets and a market-leading 13.2% of the handle at -275.
Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez led the betting market with 11.5% of the tickets with odds of +225 to be taken Thursday. Iowa offensive tackle Gennings Dunker was third at +2,000 with 7.5% of the bets.
BetMGM also survived in the top-10 market, as Arizona State receiver Jordan Styles was the only player among the leaders in tickets and handle to go that early. Styles, who went eighth to the New Orleans Saints, was -500.
BetMGM avoided paying out on USC receiver Makai Lemon, who was +850 and the most-bet player by tickets to go in the top 10. Lemon fell to the No. 20 pick, which the Philadelphia Eagles acquired in a trade with the Dallas Cowboys.