The PGA Tour plays the sixth of its eight Signature Events this week at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., and the 2026 Truist Championship features another strong field.
Quail Hollow is a storied track with the daunting Green Mile finish, and I break down the Truist Championship odds with Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg headlining this week’s early top golf picks.
⛳ Truist Championship: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Ludvig Aberg (+1400) – Knocking on victory’s door with four Top 5 across his past five events while gaining true strokes across the board
- Best early value: Harris English to win (+4500) – With a T2 here in the PGA Championship and T3 in the 2023 Truist, English has my attention after also finishing T4 three weeks ago in the RBC Heritage
- Course: Quail Hollow Club is a demanding 7,583-yard Par 71 with the notoriously difficult three-hole “Green Mile” finishing stretch
- Weather: Forecasts call for Thursday morning rain and thunderstorms to lull midday and then redevelop ahead of an afternoon cold front, with Friday bringing brief cool dryness and followed by a weekend warm-up ahead of potential afternoon storms during Round 4 on Sunday
- Expected cut: This is a Signature Event without a 36-hole cut, and everyone in the 72-player field will play all four rounds
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account 
Truist Championship odds: favorites & full field
The Truist Championship runs May 7-10 at Quail Hollow Club. Below are the latest outright betting odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.
Odds as of 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday, May 6.
Check out the full Truist Championship field here.
Best bets card
Outright: Xander Schauffele (+1000): With a pair of solo-seconds on his Quail Hollow resume, Schauffele heads back to the track dialed in throughout his bag.
Outright: Ludvig Aberg (+1400): The perfect stylistic and statistical fit for this track, Aberg has gained true strokes across the board while carding four Top 5s across his past four events.
Top 20: Si Woo Kim (-125): Enters with a solo-third and T4 in Signature Events the past two weeks and ranks fourth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green for the season.
Top 20: Harris English (+138): This will be the eighth trip to Quail for English, and the five-time PGA Tour winner has a T3 in the 2023 Wells Fargo and T2 in the 2025 PGA Championship here.
Top 20: Alex Smalley (+180): With six Tops 25s across his past eight events, including an impressive T7 last week, Smalley’s statistics and results don’t match his odds.
Course breakdown: Quail Hollow Club
Quail Hollow Club is among the most demanding tracks on tour. Originally laid out by architect George Cobb in 1959, the course has been extensively transformed by Tom Fazio over the last two decades.
Fazio’s modifications sculpted the property into a massive and penalizing 7,583-yard Par 71 characterized by narrow, tree-lined fairways, deep bunkering, and heavily contoured green complexes that create a strategic risk/reward environment.
To score on Quail Hollow, players need to execute through the bag while balancing aggressive play alongside disciplined course management.
Historical data from PGA Tour events shows that while bombers like Rory McIlroy have an advantage on the long par 5s and beefy par 4s, extreme long-iron accuracy is also critical to navigate Fazio’s signature green complexes.
The course features a highly disproportionate number of approach shots from over 200 yards. Unpredictable spring weather in North Carolina can also leave its mark on golfers’ scorecards. Thick rough and severe false fronts on many greens demand elite scrambling skills and place a premium on hitting greens in regulation to avoid squares on the card.
Previous winners have played strong tee-to-green and capitalized on scoring opportunities across the scorable middle stretch before the daunting final three holes, famously dubbed the “Green Mile,” where surviving the gauntlet of water and sand often determines the champion.
- Narrow, tree-lined fairways require tee-to-green accuracy
- Sheer length of the Par 71 creates longer than average approaches
- Heavily contoured green complexes with false fronts and run-offs
- The Green Mile serves as a brutal three-hole finish
- Water hazards are in play on seven holes
Players to watch
- Rory McIlroy: While there aren’t many tracks that don’t fit McIlroy’s game, his resume pops at Quail Hollow with four wins and five more Top 10s, and he heads back pacing this field in true strokes gained off-the-tee and tee-to-green in 2026.
- Xander Schauffele: With a pair of solo seconds at Quail Hollow in the past two Truist Championships, Schauffele is a candidate to win with seven consecutive Top 25s leading into the 2026 edition.
Key stats & player profiles to target
- True strokes gained on approach and greens-in-regulation percentage
- Bogey avoidance
- True strokes gained off the tee and total driving
- Scrambling and true strokes gained around the green
- Par 5 birdie-or-better percentage
- Proximity from 175-200 and 200-225 yards
Players to watch
- Matt Fitzpatrick: The three-time 2026 winner ranks fourth in adjusted scoring average, ninth in bogey avoidance and second in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green for the year, and he also finished T8 in the 2025 PGA Championship here
- Ludvig Aberg: Missing the cut in his lone trip to Quail Hollow is the only knock here because Aberg has four Top 5s across his past five events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the heater
Outright picks: winners to bet
Pick 1: Xander Schauffele to win (+1000)
Entering with seven consecutive Top 25s while gaining true strokes across the board, Schauffele’s game is dialed, and he has a pair of solo-seconds at Quail Hollow in 2023 and 2024.
- Course Fit: Career +1.79 true strokes gained per round at Quail
- Recent Form: Fourth in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past seven events
- Key Stat: Fifth in adjusted scoring average in 2026
Risk: Weather likely to impact Schauffele’s afternoon Round 1 tee time.
Pick 2: Ludvig Aberg to win (+1400)
Missing the cut in his lone trip to Quail Hollow is the only knock because Ludvig Aberg has four Top 5s across his past five events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during the heater.
- Course Fit: Perfect stylistic and statistic fit for Quail
- Recent Form: Four Top 5s through past five events
- Key Stat: Third in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green during noted heater
Risk: Aberg did miss the cut in his lone visit to Quail Hollow.
Best Top 20 bets
Pick 1: Si Woo Kim to finish Top 20 (-125)
There was a lull in Si Woo Kim’s results following a torrid start to the season, but he’s all the way back with a solo-third and T4 finish the past two weeks in Signature Events, and there’s no questioning his tee-to-green game.
- Course Fit: Finished Top 20 in past two trips to track
- Recent Form: Regaining top form with consecutive Top 5s
- Key Stat: Fourth in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green in 2026
Risk: Inconsistency on the greens is always a worry with Kim.
Pick 2: Harris English to finish Top 20 (+138)
This will be the eighth trip to Quail Hollow for Harris English, and the five-time PGA Tour winner has a T3 in the 2023 Wells Fargo and T2 in the 2025 PGA Championship on his resume.
- Course Fit: Pair of Top 5s in past three trips to Quail Hollow
- Recent Form: Encouraged by the T4 in the RBC Heritage
- Key Stat: Fifth in true strokes gained putting in this field in 2026
Risk: English’s last win was the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open.
Pick 3: Alex Smalley to finish Top 20 (+180)
The statistics and results across Alex Smalley’s past eight events don’t match his odds. He’s carded six Top 25s during the heater, including an impressive T7 last week, and Smalley’s also gained true strokes across the board during the run while ranking 10th in this field on approach and 12th in tee-to-green play.
- Course Fit: T18 and T28 in two trips to Quail Hollow
- Recent Form: Six Top 25s across past eight events
- Key Stat: 21st in adjusted scoring average this season
Risk: Smalley is still new to contending in top PGA Tour fields.
First-round leader predictions
See all of Esten McLaren’s Truist Championship first-round leader predictions at Kalshi.
Pick 1: Rory McIlroy
McIlroy returns to Quail Hollow as a four-time champion as he makes his tune-ups for his hunt for a seventh major.
- Course Fit: Four tournament wins at Quail Hollow
- Recent Form: First tournament since donning his second green jacket
- Key Stat: Field-best driving distance and all-time venue strokes gained leader
Risk: Likely to be more focused on the PGA Championship.
Pick 2: Min Woo Lee
Strong driver and an early starter with an 11:11 a.m. ET tee time.
- Course Fit: Long off the tee and a chef around the greens – that plays anywhere
- Recent Form: Quality T18 in last week’s Cadillac Championship Signature Event
- Key Stat: Leads the PGA Tour in early Round 1 scoring average
Risk: Lack of history at Quail Hollow Club, with only a missed cut in last year’s PGA Championship.
Pick 3: Harris English
Horse for the course with 28 rounds played at Quail Hollow.
- Course Fit: 28 career rounds played with 1.14 true strokes gained per round
- Recent Form: T4 in the RBC Heritage before stumbling to a T55 last week
- Key Stat: 0.74 strokes gained: putting over his past 16 rounds
Risk: Lack of history at Quail Hollow Club, with only a missed cut in last year’s PGA Championship.
Odds movement & market notes
As expected, bettors have backed Rory McIlroy with a sizable 15,5% of tickets and 18.8% of the handle at BetMGM as of Wednesday morning.
The back-to-back Masters champion is the largest liability for the shop, with Ludvig Aberg and Si Woo Kim right behind McIlroy.
Additionally, Xander Schauffele, Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Kim have all seen a slight -200 drop in their odds, while Tommy Fleetwood has climbed from an opening +2200 to +2500 at BetMGM.
Most popular long shots at BetMGM
- Chris Gotterup (+4500)
- Nicolai Hojgaard (+5500)
- Gary Woodland (+6000)
- Akshay Bhatia (+5000)
How to watch & tee times (quick links)
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel), 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee Times:
Truist Championship betting FAQ
When is the 2026 Truist Championship?
The 2026 edition of the Truist Championship will be played from Thursday, May 7, to Sunday, May 10.
Where will the 2026 Truist Championship be played?
The 2026 Truist Championship will be played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC.
Who is the 2026 Truist Championship favorite?
Back-to-back Masters champion and four-time Truist winner Rory McIlroy (+600) is the betting favorite at BetMGM.
What are Truist Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do Truist Championship matchup bets work?
When betting Truist Championship matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the Truist Championship cut line?
The Truist Championship does not feature a cut, and the limited 72-player field will play all 72 holes of this Signature Event.
Are Truist Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You’ll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Truist Championship; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.