After Game 3, we said it: Despite losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder two games in a row, the San Antonio Spurs were still that team — the one that has had the Thunder’s number again and again. And San Antonio made that proclamation real for us in Game 4, cruising to a victory and equalizing the series 2-2.
Now the Western Conference finals head back to the Thunder’s home court, and OKC is favored to go up 3-2. What a series.
Oklahoma City is a 5.5-point favorite for Game 5, and -198 on the moneyline, which implies a 66 percent likelihood of winning.
The Thunder are also favored to win the entire series and advance to the NBA Finals, but by a much closer margin than before the Spurs won Game 4. OKC is -210 (about a 67 percent implied likelihood) to win the series, compared to -450 (over 80 percent) after Game 4.
The Spurs’ odds to advance to the finals are at +170.
Historically, the winner of Game 3 in a series tied 1-1 takes the series more than 70 percent of the time. Can the Spurs beat history and the odds?
Game 5: San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
TV: NBC/Peacock
Time: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Series odds: Thunder -210, Spurs +170
Series tied 2-2
The key to the Spurs Game 4 victory was an activated Victor Wembanyama. Wemby took 17 shots in just the first half, compared to 16 total in Game 2 and 15 in all of Game 3. He went off for 33 points, eight boards, five assists, three blocked shots and two steals.
But overall, Game 4’s win wasn’t about a good shooting night (the Spurs had 38.9 percent shooting); it was about adjusting their defense to contain the league’s MVP. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was held to 19 points on 6-of-15 shooting and 0-1 from 3. Of course, part of that was the fact that the Thunder were missing Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, which allowed the Spurs to focus on SGA.
As mentioned, Oklahoma City seemed to show cracks from the loss of Williams and Mitchell, out with injury. And Jared McCain, the hero of Game 3, had a tough shooting night, going 1-for-10 and just four points.
The Thunder’s points total and field goal percentage (33 percent) marked their lowest outputs in any game this season, and they had more turnovers than the Spurs for the first time this series.
If anyone can adjust, though, it’s Oklahoma City.