2026 NBA Western Conference finals odds, predictions: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 5 picks by expert on 137-96 roll

Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals is Tuesday night, and it’s a big one. After Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs shocked the Thunder in Game 1, OKC rebounded in Game 2, then took Game 3 in San Antonio. The Spurs shut down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Oklahoma City in Game 4 in a thorough 103-82 victory, tying the best-of-7 series. Now the action heads back to OKC for a critical Game 5 showdown Tuesday night. Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable after missing Games 3 and 4, while Ajay Mitchell (calf) remains out.

Tipoff for Game 5 from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs are 6-3 both outright and against the spread versus OKC this season. Oklahoma City is favored by 4.5 points in the latest Spurs vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 217.5. OKC is at -169 on the money line (risk $169 to win $100), with San Antonio priced at +142 (risk $100 to win $142). Before making any Thunder vs. Spurs picks, check out the Spurs vs. Thunder predictions from SportsLine’s Mike Barner. 

Barner is perennially one of SportsLine’s top NBA experts, and he enters this game on a sizzling 137-96 roll on all NBA picks, returning $2,254 for $100 players during that span. Anyone following his NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, Barner has studied Spurs vs. Thunder from every angle and just revealed his coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

Top Thunder vs. Spurs predictions

After studying Spurs vs. Thunder from every angle, Barner is leaning Under 216.5 total points. The Under hit in three of five regular-season meetings and hit by a whopping 34.5 points in the Spurs’ 103-82 win in Game 4. Injuries to the Thunder rotation hurts depth, but also diminishes the scoring potential for the reigning NBA champions.

“Whenever Williams missed time during the regular season, Mitchell stepped up to provide added scoring. With both players potentially sidelined again, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have many great secondary scoring options around him,” Barner told SportsLine. “Chet Holmgren would normally be the next man up, but Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint has resulted in him averaging just 11.3 points in the series. It might be difficult for the Thunder to score much more than 100 points, so I’ll lean towards the under.” See his Spurs vs. Thunder spread pick at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under in Thunder vs. Spurs at FanDuel here:

How to make Spurs vs. Thunder picks

Barner has also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Spurs, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the expert who is on a 137-96 roll on NBA picks, and find out.