Joe Osborne
• Senior Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 21, 2026 , 07:50 PM ET
• 4 min read
What will we get with two rising quarterbacks and two leaky defenses on Thursday Night Football? A whole lot of points.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears and Drake Maye of the New England Patriots throw.
New England visits Chicago at Soldier Field on Thursday, Oct. 22, at 8:15 p.m. ET, with the Bears as the 3.5-point favorites and the total at 50.5.
My Patriots vs. Bears prediction backs the Over to kick off this week’s NFL picks.
TOP Pick
Patriots vs Bears prediction: Over 50.5
The Chicago Bears have scored 59 and 31 points in Caleb Williams’ two full games, and he looked downright surgical on Sunday in Atlanta, completing an insane 30 of 36 pass attempts.
The New England Patriots’ offense has been enduring a tale of two halves this season. The unit was awful through its first three games, and it then averaged 33.3 points over its next three. Drake Maye has thrown 10 touchdowns against one interception during the latter stretch.
Yes, New England’s offensive-line injuries concern me, but the makeshift unit didn’t surrender a sack against the Jets. Now Maye gets a Chicago defense tied for last in yards allowed per play. As Jason Logan points out in his Patriots vs Bears prop picks, Chicago uses man coverage at the league’s second-highest rate, a matchup that should benefit A.J. Brown. Expect the Patriots to land some haymakers.
The Bears can punch back with Williams healthy, another reason he’s a part of our Patriots vs. Bears touchdown picks. New England’s defense was already stomped for 35 points at Jacksonville, and it surrendered 26 at Buffalo. Expect a shootout as Maye and Williams battle for bragging rights as the best quarterback from the 2024 draft class.
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Patriots vs Bears combo
Williams’ return puts some venom back into Chicago’s offense. And on the other side New England has piled up 100 points during its three-game winning streak. I’m expecting sustained drives and enough end-zone visits to clear 50.5.
Give me the Patriots +3.5 in a competitive game. Their season-long yards-per-play differential is positive, while Chicago’s is negative. Getting more than a field goal with this version of Maye works for me.
Finally, Maye has fired 10 touchdown passes over his last three games. Chicago just allowed three to Michael Penix Jr. after giving up two to Jordan Love the previous week. This Bears’ secondary is starting to get badly exposed.
Patriots vs Bears combo
- Over 50.5
- Patriots +3.5
- Drake Maye 2+ touchdown passes
Patriots vs Bears touchdown scorer: DeMario Douglas
DeMario Douglas and Maye are quietly building excellent chemistry while connecting for three touchdowns over the past two games.
Douglas has also turned four red-zone targets this season into two scores. His touchdowns against Las Vegas came from 35 and eight yards out, so we don’t need him to break off a chunk play to cash this prop, although I’ll happily take one.
He can cash this in different ways, and at 23%, I’ll back Maye to keep rewarding a receiver he’s clearly finding a rhythm with right now.
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Patriots vs Bears odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Patriots +3.5 | Bears -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (52%) | Under 50.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Patriots 41% | Bears 59%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Patriots vs Bears weather
The current kickoff forecast calls for clear skies, temperatures around 60 degrees, and winds near 5 mph.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Patriots vs Bears trend to know
New England is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread in regular-season prime-time games under Mike Vrabel. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bears.
How to watch Patriots vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Patriots vs Bears latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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