MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (5/30)

It’s a bit of a later start for today’s MLB DFS slate. DraftKings’ main slate begins at 3:05 p.m. ET and includes eight games. FanDuel offers the same slate.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/30)

• Trey Yesavage is coming off the worst start of his career in terms of earned runs allowed. He allowed five in 6.2 innings against the Marlins, but still struck out six batters. Digging a bit deeper, there was a lot of bad luck — his strand rate was only 28%. He is yet to give up a home run this season, and carries a 27% strikeout rate. His matchup is against an Orioles team that has one of the five highest strikeout rates in the league.
• Seth Lugo has a matchup against the Texas Rangers. Without Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford and Josh Smith, the Texas Rangers’ offense has really struggled. While not exceptional, Lugo has been generally solid. He’s posted quality starts in seven of his 11 starts, with 54 strikeouts in 65 innings.
• Kumar Rocker has been better in home starts than on the road this season. His home ERA is 3.52, and his road ERA is 4.66. His home WHIP is 1.30, and his road WHIP is 1.44. His matchup is at home game against the Royals, who have the second-worst wRC+ in baseball over the past two weeks.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Houston Astros Projected Lineup (5/30)

It’s a bit of a later start for today’s MLB DFS slate. DraftKings’ main slate begins at 3:05 p.m. ET and includes eight games. FanDuel offers the same slate.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/30)

• Trey Yesavage is coming off the worst start of his career in terms of earned runs allowed. He allowed five in 6.2 innings against the Marlins, but still struck out six batters. Digging a bit deeper, there was a lot of bad luck — his strand rate was only 28%. He is yet to give up a home run this season, and carries a 27% strikeout rate. His matchup is against an Orioles team that has one of the five highest strikeout rates in the league.
• Seth Lugo has a matchup against the Texas Rangers. Without Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford and Josh Smith, the Texas Rangers’ offense has really struggled. While not exceptional, Lugo has been generally solid. He’s posted quality starts in seven of his 11 starts, with 54 strikeouts in 65 innings.
• Kumar Rocker has been better in home starts than on the road this season. His home ERA is 3.52, and his road ERA is 4.66. His home WHIP is 1.30, and his road WHIP is 1.44. His matchup is at home game against the Royals, who have the second-worst wRC+ in baseball over the past two weeks.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Houston Astros Projected Lineup (5/30)

• The Houston Astros have a matchup today against Brandon Sproat. He puts too many people on base and allows too many home runs. Sproat’s walk rate of 13.8% is the third-worst among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched. He’s also one of 15 pitchers to allow at least 1.8 home runs per nine innings. The Astros are still a top-three team in OPS on the road this season.
• Yordan Alvarez is expensive, but the high-end outcomes justify the price. After a bit of a lull relative to his abilities, he is back on fire recently with five home runs in the past five games. That outcome is always possible with top-five percentile marks in average exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and expected slugging rate.
• Christian Walker has seemingly found the fountain of youth. He’s already up to 15 home runs on the season, with 12 coming against right-handed pitchers. Walker has caught fire again in the past week with four home runs.
• Taylor Trammell recently returned from the injured list (IL). He has been back for four games and has hits in all of them. Not just singles either, as he already has a pair of doubles. His 90.5-mile-per-hour (MPH) average exit velocity suggests more power could be coming.

Toronto Blue Jays Projected Lineup (5/30)

• The Toronto Blue Jays are playing their division rival, the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles are starting right-handed pitcher Brandon Young. He has an ERA of 3.47, but the indicators show that his ERA should be closer to a run higher. His 6.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate demonstrates his struggles. His groundball rate is also only 37.5%, so he can be susceptible to the home run.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is one of the best hitters in baseball, but he still struggles with his launch angle. His expected slugging rate of .425 is the worst of his career, but still 50 points higher than his actual slugging rate. This is the type of matchup that Guerrero can exploit to elevate the ball and have multiple extra-base hits.
• Kazuma Okamoto is in the midst of a tough stretch, causing his price to tumble. Over the last 21 games, he has gone 12-for-73 with a pair of home runs. One of those home runs was last night. Even as he has struggled, he has continued to hit the ball hard, with top-10 percentile marks in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
• Jesus Sanchez has 16 extra-base hits, including six home runs. Fifteen of those extra-base hits, including all of his home runs, have come against right-handed pitchers. His .779 slugging rate is his best mark since 2021.

Core Studs

• James Wood has arguably been the most impressive hitter in all of baseball for the first couple of months of the season. His matchup today is against a strong pitcher in Michael King, but Wood has been so good against right-handed pitchers that it’s hard not to recommend him. He has a 1.027 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season.
• Yandy Diaz has a matchup today against Reid Detmers. He is coming off a 14-strikeout masterpiece, but inconsistency has been consistent throughout his career. Diaz has always been better against left-handed pitchers like Detmers, with a career .899 OPS against lefties.
• Travis Bazzana has hit the ground running in his rookie season, especially against right-handed pitchers. He has an .924 OPS against righties. He also has five doubles and a home run in the past week.

Value Plays/Punts

• Josh Bell is a streaky hitter. Over the past two weeks, his OPS has fallen to .627. His matchup today is against Mitch Keller, a pitcher he has had success against. He’s gone 6-for-14 against Keller with a double and a home run.
• You have to check that Andrew Vaughn is in the lineup, since the Brewers have been rotating him in and out of the lineup. If he is starting, he is well worth his price tag. He has a .917 OPS this season, which brings his OPS with the Brewers to .878.
• Vaughn Grissom is doing some interesting things as the everyday first baseman for the Angels (for some reason, he is still not eligible at first base on FanDuel), especially against right-handed pitchers. All three of his home runs have come against righties. That comes with a 48% hard-hit rate and 90 MPH average exit velocity.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Trey Yesavage (SP – TOR): 6.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Trey Yesavage was discussed above, but we’ll go a bit more into his strikeout potential. While Yesavage has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts one time this season, he has had at least six strikeouts in each of his last five games.

Today, Yesavage is going up against a Baltimore team striking out 24% of the time against right-handed pitchers this season, which is the third-highest rate in the league.

Drew Rasmussen (SP – TBR): 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Drew Rasmussen has recorded at least six strikeouts in six of his 10 starts this season. The Angels are the worst team in the league for strikeouts against right-handed pitchers (25.9%).

Juan Soto (OF, DH – NYM): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher

Juan Soto has cleared 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs in his last three games. If you want to go back even further, he has gone over this mark in 11 of his past 13 games.

The Marlins will start converted reliever Tyler Phillips today. While he’s been pitching well, it will be tough to keep Soto in check.

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