In The Lab: BPO and the Outfield Logjam

We took a little mini break from bases per out, but we were always going to come back. This is really about two suppositions. First, the Astros current pitching staff is MLB average. We saw that in the last lab that we ran on Wednesday. Yes, Josh Hader is due back next week. Hunter Brown is due back in a couple of weeks. Still, this is not the kind of pitching staff the team had in 2018, 2019, or 2022. That brings us to the second supposition. The Astros offense is also currently average.

The good news is that the team finds themselves three games out of first place as of this writing. There have been a few instances in history where teams have won their division with fewer than 85 wins. When I reviewed the math problem with everyone it was based on the assumption that 85 wins would be needed to get into the playoffs. It is fair at this point to question whether that actually is true. If it takes only 82 or 83 wins then the math changes and things become much more possible.

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Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker have been spectacular this season. Yet, when you look at the rest of the current unit, no other regular has an OPS higher than Christian Vazquez at .725 and he will likely see that go down if expected numbers are correct. Players like Jeremy Pena are expected to improve and certainly that should be the case, but this offense is a little top heavy and that is clear in the outfield. If we consider Yordan Alvarez as a designated hitter only then there are seven guys that have gotten considerable time that likely will factor into the current or future plans of the organization.

As a reminder, bases per out are calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by the total number of outs a player accrues. The current MLB average is .663. It goes without saying, but you want the players with the most outs to be the players that accrue the most damage per out. However, I am sure you will notice something immediately when looking at the outfielders. They will be listed in order of outs.

You’ve undoubtedly noticed that Trammel is the only outfielder over the league average and he has the least number of outs. Obviously, that is due to his untimely injury in Cleveland and he has been back in the lineup since returning from the injured list. Cole was mercifully sent down and Loperfido is on a rehab assignment, so he should be back next week as well. So, who amongst these guys will he replace?

Admittedly, holding a spot is not only a function of offensive production. The Astros have to consider things like positional flexibility, options, and defensive output. The same is true for when deciding who gets to start and where. Based on those points alone, Dezenzo would seem to be the most likely player out because of a lack of positional flexibility and defensive ability.

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Certainly, this current road trip has changed a lot of minds over what is possible down the stretch. I am certainly in that group, but it is more about what other teams are not doing than what the Astros have actually done. Given that, the job for Joe Espada is to manage with razor thin margins and get as much blood out of that rock as possible. Many of you are screaming about the fielding side and it is definitely a factor. So, below we see the defensive innings along with the defensive runs saved (DRS), outs above average (OAA), and fielding run value (FRV). All three are popular fielding metrics that usually say the same thing, but occasionally disagree because they all have their own methods and assumptions.

To give everyone some context, Smith is likely to be a finalist again for the Gold Glove in right field if he continues on this pace. Unlike last season, he may actually take it home this time. That obviously complicates a decision as to whether he should get regular starts in right field. When you add in the fact that he is probably the second best outfielder offensively behind Loperfido (Trammel likely comes back to Earth) then it seems pretty clear that he has right field held down.

This is why competing matters. If you are in the business of winning games then you put the best three guys out there. If you are in the business of development then you consider the best interests of the player. Smith likely should have been in the minors last season and maybe this season as well. It still might have been best for his overall development. Yet, if you are in the business of winning games then you need him out there.

Loperfido and Trammel seem like a nice platoon in left of sorts. In this case, it isn’t so much which side of the plate they hit from (left) as riding the hot hand in the moment. Trammel is not likely to be an average MLB performer over a full season. He certainly looks the part now, so you might as well ride that bull until it bucks you. Over a longer timeline, Loperfido has a slightly higher upside.

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That leaves centerfield. Matthews has made that more compelling through his defense. Is Jake Meyers likely to live at a .531 BPO? He has a career .613 BPO. It seems reasonable to expect him to get back to the neighborhood of a .600 BPO at the very least. That certainly begs the question: is Brice Matthews likely to elevate himself to that? Obviously, what 2027 or 2028 might look like is anyone’s best guess, but the simple answer to that question in 2026 is likely no.

When Jose Altuve comes back it becomes a question of whether you want to option Matthews, Braden Shewmake, or Nick Allen. We haven’t looked at their numbers yet, but suffice it to say that both are performing better than Matthews. Remember, this is about squeezing as much offense as possible out of players that are not quite league average. If you have enough luck and win enough close games then you can find yourself right back in the hunt. These are razor thin margins we are talking about here, so the Astros must exploit every positive difference they can.