Welcome back to the Dynasty Range of Outcomes series!
This article will take a deeper look at this year’s WR class by utilizing historical prospect data to identify which players are more likely to break out in the NFL. By finding WRs with similar draft capital and production, we can project a player’s potential trajectory as they enter the NFL.
To quickly recap, we will keep the analysis relatively simple by using four data points to find players that most resemble the 2026 rookie class:
- Draft Capital: Draft capital is the most predictive metric. Players selected earlier in the NFL draft are more likely to receive significant playing time and become valuable assets for dynasty managers. Draft capital also represents a team’s investment in a player, which is why day three WRs are often easily replaced.
- Career Production: While there are a few exceptions, players who dominate in college usually produce at the NFL level. In fact, we consistently see higher hit rates when we control the sample size for draft capital and production. Unlike previous versions of this article, this year I will leverage my model’s schedule-adjusted production score, which combines a player’s career EPA Success Rate, Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (one of the most predictive single metrics for WRs), and SRS College School Rating into one holistic metric. To find players with similar production profiles, our analysis will apply a 15% to 20% threshold in both directions.
- Declare Status: Players entering the league within three years of graduating from high school are considered early-declare prospects. Why does this matter? Historically, early-declare WRs have averaged higher breakout rates in the NFL. This comes as no surprise, as the most talented prospects enter the league as soon as they are eligible after achieving significant success at the collegiate level.
- Weight: This data point has one of the lowest correlations to fantasy production. However, it makes sense to filter by weight to avoid comparing a Jordan Addison to Drake London, who is over 40 pounds heavier. In this analysis, we will apply a five-to-ten-pound threshold in both directions to identify players with similar body types.
For a more detailed breakdown of these metrics, check out our series primer. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Let’s dive into the 2026 WR class!
The player who arguably has the highest floor and upside in this class is Carnell Tate after being drafted with the fourth overall pick by the Tennessee Titans. First off, Tate is the perfect example of why adjusting production scores based on a player’s ecosystem and strength of schedule truly matters. At a high level, you might look at his late breakout age and negative experience-adjusted production and question his upside as a dynasty prospect. However, when you account for the fact that he played with Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr, and Jeremiah Smith (next year’s WR1), it should not surprise anyone that he only broke out in his Junior year. In fact, Tate has by far the highest SRS College Rating in this class, boosting his production score after playing on a successful, stacked Ohio State team. Coupled with elite draft capital, that places him in the 94th percentile in my rookie model, ranking among some of the most productive NFL WRs. And as you can see above, Tate’s profile clearly holds WR1 upside with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Calvin Ridley as two of his closest comps. Especially on a Titans team that desperately needs a dynamic WR1, Tate should be an integral part of their offense right out of the gate.
Jordyn Tyson enters the NFL with a production profile that ranks at the very top of this class, leading all 2026 prospects in experience-adjusted production. His trajectory began with a dominant stint at Colorado, where he posted an 88th-percentile true freshman campaign. Unfortunately, his breakout was derailed by a significant knee injury (ACL, MCL, and PCL) that cost him the majority of the 2023 season. While he has since made a full recovery, his collegiate career was unfortunately defined by availability concerns. However, when on the field, Tyson has been nothing short of productive, bouncing back with a 95th-percentile redshirt Sophomore season in 2024. And when we factor in his draft capital, he lands in the 91st percentile in my rookie model, placing him among several successful WRs in the NFL. Looking at his range of outcomes, Emeka Egbuka stands out as a promising comp after flashing WR1 upside early in his career. While Josh Doctson represents the lower-end floor, Tyson grades a lot closer to Egbuka, who also broke out early in college. Finally, to put his profile into perspective, prospects who grade above the 90th percentile in my model have historically broken out at a 74% rate. If he remains healthy, Tyson could emerge as a significant contributor for dynasty managers.
Lastly, you can see above that Omar Cooper Jr. also finished with a similar SRS career score. However, when we factor in his negative experience-adjusted production and late breakout, Cooper only grades in the 75th percentile, well behind Tyson in my rookie model.
While there was always a “big three” in this class, KC Concepcion was a very close WR4 in my prospect model. What stood out in his profile was his consistent production dating back to his first two seasons at NC State. In fact, he has by far the most productive true freshman season in this class, finishing with a 96th percentile campaign back in 2023. And even though his numbers declined as a Sophomore, he bounced back significantly in his final season at Texas A&M, accounting for over 30% of their receiving production. As a result, Concepcion finished his career as one of only three WRs in this class with positive experience-adjusted production. Why does that matter? First-round WRs with positive production have averaged a 70% hit rate for fantasy football. Those who finished with negative production have only broken out at a rate of 23.1%. While that is only one piece of the puzzle, Concepcion’s comps also offer significant upside, with Brandin Cooks as his closest comparable prospect in my model. And even though the Browns double-dipped at WR in the draft, keep in mind that Concepcion was by far the superior college prospect compared to Denzel Boston.
Makai Lemon’s prospects comps might look very familiar, considering his profile is nearly identical to Carnell Tate‘s. Their experience-adjusted production even nets the same value as they both broke out in their Junior year. In short, this confirms that Lemon’s upside is equally high, entering the league with a 90th percentile college production score. And while my prospect model has him ranked behind Jordyn Tyson in the 89th percentile, Lemon is my preferred pick at WR2. For one, he enters without the significant injury concerns that continue to linger for Tyson. Secondly, Lemon’s efficiency scores rank near the top with an impressive 3.02 Yards per Route Run (WR1 in this class) and 116.9 QB Rating when Targeted. His dynamic skill set should translate to the NFL, as Lemon will be heavily relied upon after the Eagles traded A.J. Brown to the Patriots. With over 30% of the team’s targets up for grabs, I would not be shocked if he broke out immediately as a rookie.
While I am excited about the top prospects of the 2026 draft, I am less optimistic about the rest of the class. That includes several day-two WRs who underwhelmed from a production standpoint. Unfortunately, Zachariah Branch falls into that category after spending three seasons at USC and Georgia. Even in his best year, he only averaged 1.94 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt, well below the threshold of a breakout season. As a result, his SRS career score of 4.66 only ranks in the 27th percentile, one of the worst production profiles for a day-two WR in my model. In fact, I had to extend my thresholds significantly to find a prospect with somewhat similar numbers. And among those comps, neither Jalin Hyatt nor Anthony Schwartz offers much optimism for Branch’s dynasty outlook. With only a 59th-percentile grade, Branch projects to be one of the riskier dynasty picks at ADP.
Chris Bell is a four-year prospect out of Louisville who did not break out until later in his college career. In his final year with the Cardinals, he put together by far his best season, accounting for over 41% of Louisville’s receiving offense and averaging a solid 2.45 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to an ACL tear, which prevented him from fully participating in the pre-draft process. Despite that, the Miami Dolphins invested a day-two pick to select Bell, who now finds himself on a team in desperate need of a WR1. Keep in mind that the Dolphins also drafted Caleb Douglas, who was selected 19 picks earlier in the third round. Even then, I still like Bell’s upside and opportunity, who grades slightly higher (60th percentile) than Douglas in my rookie model. Even with a slightly flawed profile, Bell’s player comps still offer plenty of upside, as Nico Collins and Eric Decker were both WR1s for their respective teams. While I am tempering expectations due to the injury, Bell is still one of my favorite mid-round picks in dynasty drafts this year.
One of the most shocking picks in this year’s draft was De’Zhaun Stribling after being selected in the second round by the San Francisco 49ers. A five-year prospect who played at multiple schools, Stribling only broke out in his fourth year at Oklahoma State before transferring to Ole Miss in 2025. And while he did have a prominent role with the Rebels, his production still lagged behind Harrison Wallace III, who recently signed as a UDFA with Arizona. Despite an underwhelming production profile that only ranks in the 54th percentile in my rookie model, Stribling’s comp list is surprisingly positive. While it does include several day-two WRs who never emerged in the NFL, such as Denzel Mims, Parris Campbell, and Ja’Lynn Polk, the career trajectories of Rashee Rice and Torrey Smith offer some hope for his dynasty outlook. Keep in mind that while the 49ers lost both Kendrick Bourne and Jauan Jennings this offseason, they did sign Mike Evans to a lucrative deal. Coupled with the fact that Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle remain heavily involved, I would be shocked if Stribling received a significant opportunity in Kyle Shanahan’s offense right out of the gate.
Another popular day-two WR in the 2026 class is Antonio Williams, who was drafted by the Washington Commanders in the third round. A four-year player out of Clemson, Williams never fully broke out with the Tigers, averaging only 1.74 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (51st percentile) in his best season. As a result, he enters the league with only a 64th percentile SRS score and negative experience-adjusted production. And even though T.Y. Hilton and Emmanuel Sanders show up as potential comps, keep in mind that both players were much more productive early in their collegiate careers. In fact, Hilton holds one of the most accomplished true freshman seasons in recent history, ranking in the 99th percentile since 2010. Williams was nowhere near as productive at Clemson, which has me far less optimistic for his long-term outlook. Even with an immediate path to opportunities as Jayden Daniels’ WR2, I am tempering expectations for his rookie year.
There has been recent buzz that Ted Hurst could emerge as a potential “Mike Evans” replacement in the Bucs offense after being selected in the third round of the NFL draft. And while he did have two productive seasons at Georgia State, Hurst’s production profile only grades in the 36th percentile in my model. For one, he has one of the lowest SRS scores in this class, starting his career playing Division II football at Valdosta State before transferring to a non-Power 4 school in Georgia State. So even though he broke out as a Junior, his profile takes a hit when accounting for his strength of schedule and the level of competition he faced throughout his career. With only a 59th-percentile overall grade, his range of outcomes offers more misses than hits, as Terry McLaurin is the only player on his comp list who managed to truly break out in the NFL. And considering Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan remain ahead of him on the depth chart, I would be shocked if Hurst was an immediate contributor for fantasy managers.
Day Three WRs and their Breakout Rates: While this article primarily focused on the day one and two receivers, we have to briefly address the day-three prospects in this class. To put it bluntly, we need to acknowledge their historical hit rates, which are far from encouraging. Since 2010, only 3.3% of day-three WRs have broken out in the NFL, underscoring just how difficult it is to find a diamond in the rough this late in the draft. However, the hit rate does improve when we narrow the sample size to those with positive experience-adjusted production, as that group has averaged a 9.3% breakout rate over the last 16 years. This includes elite outliers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Puka Nacua, who all entered the league with dominant collegiate resumes. In contrast, prospects who finished with negative production have only hit at a dismal 2% rate. Unfortunately, nearly every day-three wideout in the 2026 class fall into that latter category, with Elijah Sarratt serving as the lone exception. Sarratt actually boasts one of the most impressive profiles in my model, ranking in the 99th percentile with his SRS career score. While his fourth-round draft capital naturally lowers his floor, his elite production at both James Madison and Indiana suggests he possesses legitimate upside. If you are looking to take a flyer on a mid-round sleeper, the Ravens’ Elijah Sarratt is my clear priority after grading in the 71st percentile in my rookie model.