The Denver Broncos certainly had no issue putting the ball in the air last year. Bo Nix led the NFL with 612 attempts, and Denver finished near the top of the league in pass attempts per game. The fantasy scoring and efficiency left our fantasy bellies rumbling, with only 25 passing TDs plus plenty of drops (fifth in the league with 27). My curiosity is whether Nix becomes consistent enough to make QB16 look like a discount. Can he outperform that with the new acquisition, Jaylen Waddle?
Waddle is a proven target earner. Dominator Rating combines a player’s share of receiving yards and TDs, and Denver now has two players who finished inside the top 16 last season. Waddle finished 15th at 27.92%, while Courtland Sutton finished 16th at 26.94%.
Now, those numbers will not work in tandem; they will cannibalize each other. Sutton did not have to compete against a Waddle-level profile last year, and Waddle was not sharing the field with Sutton. But that is exactly what makes these projections worth discussing.
So, let’s break it down real smooth.
1. The Macro View: Projecting the 2026 Passing Game
Passing Projection for the 2026 Denver Broncos
- Pass Attempts: 590
- Completions: 402
- Passing Yards: 4,359
- Passing TDs: 28
These numbers come directly from Baller’s Premium Projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit, plus my adjustments based on available Sportsbook futures/medians.
Bo Nix’s first two seasons give us the range of outcomes, even though we do not really count the first month of his career here at Footballers HQ. His rookie year was the efficient version, while last year was the volume version. I do not think the answer for 2026 is simply copying either one.
The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. That is why these projections pull the attempts back a bit while still expecting Nix to turn a stronger supporting cast into better overall production.
2. 2026 Broncos Target Projection Summary
*Fantasy Points is for full +1 PPR.
Advanced Passing Team Notes from 2025
Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) measures how often a team passes compared to expectation based on down, distance, score, and game situation. Denver ranked seventh last season.
PROE+ adds neutral pace to the equation, rewarding teams that pass more than expected while also playing fast. Denver tied for second, showing they planned on putting the ball in the air.
But the problem wasn’t involvement; it was impact. Denver ranked sixth in yards after catch with 2,093, so the pass catchers were doing real work after the ball arrived. Without that, this offense would have been a hot mess.
Even with solid YAC, the explosive play rate (20+ yard plays) was 12th worst in the league at only 16%. The Broncos could move the ball through the air, but too many plays were chain movers instead of field flippers.
3. The Targets: Individual Player Breakdowns
2026 Projected Passing Pie: 590 pass attempts
Jaylen Waddle
128 targets | 22% target share | 73.7 receptions | 1,046 yards | 6 TDs | 217.3 fantasy points
Waddle is the answer to the exact problem Denver had last season. The Broncos were already willing to throw and already had pass catchers creating after the ball arrived. The issue was that too much of the offense lived in the useful but safe area of the field. This does not create enough pressure on defenses.
That is where Waddle changes things. He does not need Denver to become more pass-happy. He needs to turn a passing offense built on short-area efficiency into one that creates bigger plays or scores TDs.
The Optimism: Waddle gives Denver the field-flipping threat it was missing. If Bo Nix is already getting efficient completions and YAC help, Waddle’s possession ability, plus his estimated 4.37 speed, is the rising tide to lift all ships.
The Critique: Waddle is not walking into an empty target tree. Sutton still matters (and his contract proves it), Harvey is going to be a major piece, and Engram is still out there, no matter how dusty he looks. Waddle can lead this offense without burying everyone else.
Jaylen Waddle’s last 17 games with Tua:
➖122 Targets
➖85 Receptions
➖1,380 Yards
➖6 TD’sThat’s 259.0 fantasy points which would’ve been the WR13 last season.
LEAGUE WINNER pic.twitter.com/XBVD4YLPcG
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbott) October 25, 2024
Courtland Sutton
117 targets | 20% target share | 63.7 receptions | 839 yards | 6.3 TDs | 184.4 fantasy points
Sutton needs to show that sharing is caring. Denver needed another explosive option, but they still need a player who can win physically. That is where Sutton remains valuable, thanks to his 6’4″, 216-lb frame. For context, Waddle is 5’10”, 185 lb.
Luckily, this is an apples-to-oranges situation, and Waddle makes Sutton’s job cleaner due to differing profiles. Instead of asking Sutton to carry the passing game by himself, Denver can let him live in the red zone, on third downs, and in possession situations.
The Optimism: Sutton should benefit from a better ecosystem. Waddle can pull coverage away from him and create more space for the throws Sutton already wins on. He may lose some raw target ceiling, but the quality of his looks will improve.
The Critique: Sutton may become more TD dependent. If Waddle owns the explosive work and Harvey plus Engram take the easy underneath volume, Sutton’s week-to-week ceiling could lean heavily on finding paydirt.
Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
RJ Harvey
68 targets | 12% target share | 42.7 receptions | 300 yards | 2.3 TDs | 84.5 fantasy points*
*Rushing Production not included.
Harvey fits the part of Denver’s offense that already worked because he was seemingly the only dude on the team with a nose for TDs (12 as a rookie). This team created a lot after the catch, and Harvey gives Nix another easy answer in space. Screens, flats, option routes, and quick outlets all allow the offense to stay on schedule.
The Optimism: Harvey gives Denver a useful passing game outlet to minimize mistakes. His role can keep the offense ahead of the sticks and help Nix avoid negative plays. He also improves as a rusher because defenses have more respect for the passing game.
The Critique: The touches may be more useful than explosive. If most of Harvey’s receiving work happens near the line of scrimmage, he needs big YAC plays or scoring chances to create league-winning upside.
The Other WRs
126 targets | 22% target share | 95.6 receptions | 1,091 yards | 6.7 TDs | 238.9 fantasy points
With Waddle and Sutton leading the room, the remaining WRs can work as homeboys for a greater than the sum of DEN’s parts situation. They will fight for lower volume but potentially valuable big plays.
The Optimism: Franklin is the most interesting because his profile points more toward chunk plays than empty volume. When he serves as a WR3, instead of a WR2, can he maximize the defense worrying about the other players to make that happen?
Bryant gives Denver size and structure. Mims still has gadget and splash play ability. One of these WRs does not need a huge role to matter if the offense becomes more dangerous around them.
The Critique: The path to weekly trust is narrow. There are already too many names ahead of this group in the target tree. One of these players can pop, but it may be hard to know which one.
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Evan Engram
Dusty Ole’ Engram isn’t a safe bet, but a rebound bet could pay off. The idea made sense last season. Denver had a pass-friendly offense, played with pace, and created yards after the catch. In theory, that should have helped a move TE who wins underneath. Instead, Engram dropped a turdburger, finishing as TE 32 (oof).
The Optimism: Rebounding. Waddle can stretch the field, Sutton can win outside, and Harvey can pull defenders toward the flats. That should create a cleaner middle field look, and he is still the only TE who projects to matter consistently.
The Critique: We saw this movie last year, and it flopped. Engram has to earn back our (and the team’s?) trust after failing to make enough of an impact in a passing offense that gave him an opportunity. The projection should be treated with caution rather than confidence. He is currently ranked TE 34 in the UDK.
4. Fantasy Strategy & Verdict
Jaylen Waddle (Hold): Waddle is the kind of player I am comfortable keeping because his weekly ceiling can win matchups if the Broncos flirt with 600 total pass attempts. I would not force a buy, but I would need a clear overpay to move him if I’m in a championship window.
Courtland Sutton (Trade): Sutton is a useful fantasy piece, but this is the profile I would rather move before the market gets nervous. I would shop him for a younger WR, a future pick upgrade, or a player with a cleaner weekly ceiling. Think Sutton for Jayden Reed & a 2027 2nd type of deal.
RJ Harvey (Hold): Harvey is a hold because receiving backs can gain fantasy value fast once the role expands. Dobbins isn’t exactly a spring chicken. I would rather wait for the breakout window than sell him as a depth RB. His stock is not exactly surging right now.
The Other WRs (Hold Bryant): Bryant is my preferred hold from this group because he has the easiest path to becoming a usable fantasy asset down the road. Franklin and Mims are more volatile stashes that randomly find a spike week, but Bryant feels like the cleaner profile to mature into a real NFL WR later.
Evan Engram & The TEs (Trade for Justin Joly): Engram is a player I would move if anyone still values him. I mean, for a bag of chips, honestly. If you want a lottery ticket, trade for Joly (but don’t spend more than late-rookie picks on him). He had almost 2,000 receiving yards in four years of college, along with 15 TDs and 166 catches.