DBro’s Fantasy Football Draft Cheat Sheet (2026)

Last year, Dak Prescott directed an offense that was 13th in neutral passing rate and ninth in neutral pace en route to a QB7 finish (Weeks 1-17) in fantasy points per game. Among the 45 qualifying passers, Prescott ranked 10th in yards per attempt, 8th in highly accurate throw rate, and 13th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, and Javonte Williams all still in the fold, I don’t see a reason to expect Dallas or Prescott to slow down this season. Prescott had only a 5% passing touchdown rate last year, so there’s still some meat on the bone for Prescott to be even better this season for an offense that was fifth in points per game and red zone scoring attempts per game (16th in red zone touchdown percentage). Prescott is a locked-in QB1 that could be a top-five option if they can put more touchdowns in the end zone in 2026.

If you’re not respecting Brock Purdy as a strong QB1 at this point, I really don’t know what to tell you. Over the last three seasons, he has finished as the QB5, QB10, and QB6 in fantasy football points per game. In his four years in the NFL, he has finished with a passing touchdown rate lower than 7.0% only once. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy was sixth in passing yards per game, ninth in yards per attempt, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). Purdy will again be a QB1 that goes far too late in drafts in 2026.

Is Malik Willis in a tough spot in Miami? Sure. Could this offense outperform expectations in several ways? Absolutely. Greg Dulcich was outstanding on a per-route basis last year. Their receiver room is unproven and full of castoffs, but talented rookies like Chris Bell and Kevin Coleman Jr., along with Willis, could open some eyes in 2026. I know Willis’s starting resume is limited. I get it. What we have seen in limited doses over the last two years has been outstanding, though. Over the last two seasons, Willis has posted a 5.6% big-time throw rate (118 dropbacks, per PFF), 10.9 yards per attempt, and averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game. Last year, among all quarterbacks with at least 110 dropbacks, that big-time throw rate would have ranked eighth-best behind Caleb Williams, and his yards-per-attempt mark would have led the NFL. That rushing yardage mark per game over the last three years would have ranked first, fourth, and third among quarterbacks. Willis’s running prowess should have him flirting with QB1 production this year alone. If he and this offense surpass lowly expectations through the air, Willis would be a strong QB1 with upside in 2026.

Last year, Bo Nix regressed as a passer and with his overall production, yet he was still the QB11 in fantasy points per game. Nix saw his passing touchdown rate fall from 5.1% to 4.1%, and his rushing yards per game dip from 25.3 to 20.9 (16th). Nix still directed a passing offense that was fifth in neutral passing rate and tenth in neutral pace. I don’t see either of those figures changing in 2026. With the addition of Jaylen Waddle, Denver could be even more pass-happy this season, too. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 31st in yards per attempt, 18th in highly accurate throw rate, 19th in hero throw rate, and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). If Nix can bounce back or take another positive step in his career, he could be a top 5-7 quarterback in fantasy football in 2026.

Running Backs

Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

Last year, Chase Brown started slowly, ranking 34th in fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-5. After that point, he was exactly who fantasy football gamers thought they were drafting as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 6-18, among 48 qualifying backs, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate, fifth in yards after contact per attempt, and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). During that span, he averaged 18.2 touches and 100.1 total yards. Brown had to deal with Samaje Perine eating into his workload during Weeks 13-18, but it didn’t capsize his production. During that stretch, while he did play 60.5% of snaps and 71.6% of snaps in the red zone, he had 17 red-zone carries versus Perine’s 13. If Brown can capture more of the red zone work in 2026, his ceiling and floor will be raised considerably from a week-to-week and season-long perspective. Brown is a solid RB1 with top-five upside this season.

Last year, Javonte Williams was a massive surprise in fantasy football to everyone, including me. I was very bullish on his 2025 outlook, but I was hoping, at best, for a volume-driven RB2 in an explosive offense. Well, Williams crushed even my expectations as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, finishing with a career high 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His season was also a tale of two halves as he faded some down the back half of the year. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 18.5 touches, 90.7 total yards, and scored nine total touchdowns as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 17.4 touches, 76.5 total yards, and scored only 4 touchdowns, finishing as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. Much of his fantasy stock’s drop was related to the fall in touchdown production, which could simply be variance. His deeper analytics back up the fact that his play didn’t fall off from a per-touch efficiency standpoint. In Weeks 1-8, he had a 4.8% explosive run rate, an 11% missed-tackle rate, and 3.52 yards after contact per attempt. That yards-after-contact-per-attempt mark is otherworldly. In Weeks 8-17, he posted a 5.5% explosive run rate, a 13% missed-tackle rate, and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. He improved his marks down the stretch in two of those three categories. If Williams can post production as he did over the first half of the 2025 season for an entire year, he is a locked-in top-10 back with top-5 upside. At his floor, he looks like a low-end RB1 or top 15 fantasy back.

Last year, Omarion Hampton’s rookie season was derailed by an ankle injury in Week 5. When he came back, he wasn’t close to 100% healthy and had only one game with a snap rate over 55%. Any games after Week 4 last year, I’m just tossing in the trash because that wasn’t the “real” Hampton. In 2025, in Weeks 1-4, Hampton averaged 17 touches and 95 total yards, ranking 13th in fantasy points per game. In that small sample of games, he posted a 7.4% explosive run rate, a 19% missed tackle rate, and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept up that pace throughout the year in those three categories, he would have ranked fourth, tenth, and eighth (minimum 100 carries). Those are impressive numbers and speak to his talent and upside in 2026 as Mike McDaniel’s possible bellcow. Hampton also contributed through the air in his first four NFL games with a 10.1% target share, 27.5 receiving yards per game, and 1.12 yards per route run. McDaniel is sure to get Hampton involved through the air after designing offenses of the last three seasons that have ranked third, third, and seventh in target share to the running back position. Yes, I know that Hampton isn’t De’Von Achane, but this is still a feather in Hampton’s cap. Hampton should be a rock-solid RB1 with massive upside in 2026.

With Travis Etienne gone, Bhayshul Tuten will compete with Chris Rodriguez for the lead back role for the Jaguars in 2026. I want to bet on Tuten this year and his talent. Last year, Tuten was unfortunately robbed of the stretch run of his rookie season after being sidelined by a finger injury. Before the injury, he was starting to make some noise. This could be the big breakout season for Tuten, who, on a per-touch basis, flashed the immense talent that I really liked when he was in college. Last season, among 55 qualifying backs, he ranked 5th in rushing success rate, 11th in missed-tackle rate, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez will remain a worry for Tuten at the goal line and to his overall touch count until we see his role fleshed out this season, but if he can be the clear lead guy, he has the talent to match Etienne’s RB13 finish last year in fantasy points per game.

Jonathon Brooks (RB – CAR)

It’s Jaylen Waddle SZN! I can’t wait to see him ball out in the Denver passing attack. Waddle should get a wonderful infusion of volume this season, moving from an offense that was 29th in neutral passing rate to one that was fourth in that metric last season. Overall, Denver ranked fourth in passing attempts last year, behind only Arizona, Cincy, and Dallas. Waddle is a stud no matter what metric you look at. Last year, among 109 qualifying wide receivers (per Fantasy Points Data), he ranked 12th in target-per-route-run rate, 12th in yards-per-route-run, 7th in first downs-per-route-run, 12th in separation score, and 11th in route win rate. He also bested Courtland Sutton in each of those metrics, except for route win rate (15.3% vs. 15.5%). Waddle is a flag plant player for me this year. You can easily draft him as a WR2 for your teams this season, who has WR1 upside.

Last year, Zay Flowers posted career-best marks across the board with 86 receptions, 1,211 receiving yards, and a WR12 finish in fantasy points per game. It was amazing to see for a player who also ranked eighth in target share (27.7%), 11th in receiving yards per game (71.2), seventh in yards per route run (2.61), and tenth in first-read share (33.3%, per Fantasy Points Data). While Flowers also saw 19 deep targets last year, the big concern with him is his touchdown upside. Flowers has never had more than five receiving touchdowns in any season, and with only 11 red zone targets last year, it’s tough to project a huge spike this season. But there could be hope with the arrival of offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. I’m not projecting that Doyle heads into this season drawing up more usage for Flowers near the goal line, but it can’t possibly get any worse than it has been previously. Flowers is a strong WR2 with WR1 upside again this year.

Christian Watson got the bag this offseason and should be considered the clear WR1 for the Green Bay Packers. Watson deserved the payday, as he proved he could handle this role last year. Last season, in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 61.1 receiving yards per game, 2.67 yards per route run, a 23.9% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His target share and first-read share should increase this season with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and Watson likely being promoted to a full-time role. Last year, he was also held back by a 68% route share (56th out of 109 qualifying receivers). The increase in usage and playing time should make his ultra-efficiency per route even more deadly in 2026. Last year, among those 109 qualifying receivers, Watson ranked fourth in yards per route run, tenth in first downs per route run, and sixth in fantasy football points per route run. Watson is a strong WR2 with upside for more in 2026.

Drafting Carnell Tate is a bet on talent and Cam Ward‘s ability to take off in his second season with Brian Daboll calling plays. I want to bet on Tate as I’m in love with the talent. Tate is an amazing route runner who can separate at all three levels of the field after ranking tenth in yards per route run and fourth in receiving grade last season (per PFF). He finished college with an otherworldly 68.8% contested catch rate, and he had zero drops in his final season despite a 14.6 aDOT. Tate will have to contend with Wan’Dale Robinson and Calvin Ridley for the WR1 spot in the Tennessee offense, but he has the talent to be the clear WR1 from Week 1. It just comes down to how quickly he can hit the ground running and how many weapons Ward can support in 2026. I’ll be drafting Tate a ton.

I want to take shots on the Browns’ passing attack in this season’s drafts. I don’t know whether KC Concepcion or Denzel Boston will be the team’s number one wide receiver this season, but I do think it will be one of these talented rookies. If Shedeur Sanders or Deshaun Watson can provide at least league-average quarterback play for this offense, one of these rookies (maybe both) will emerge as a nice value for fantasy football gamers. Concepcion was one of my favorite receivers in this last draft class after finishing his collegiate career, ranked 26th in yards after the catch per reception and 44th in yards per route run in his final season (per PFF). Concepcion can threaten a defense at all three levels while offering positional versatility, having played the slot and on the perimeter in college.
Boston is a different beast as a prototypical X receiver. My comp for him as a prospect was Courtland Sutton. Boston is an underrated route runner with catch-point prowess, as he ranked fifth-best in contested catch rate in his final season (minimum 10 contested targets). He also has a soft set of dependable hands with 4.5% and 3.1% drop rates across his final two collegiate seasons. I’m not opposed to drafting both of these receivers on the same team and letting it play out early in the season. With both rookies getting drafted late, it’s not a difficult decision to send one of them to the waiver wire if necessary.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers (TE – LV)

Toss Brock Bowers’ 2025 season in the trash. All of it. In the trash. He sustained a PCL injury in Week 1 that he attempted to play through all year. He eventually landed on season-ending IR before Week 17 after gutting through 12 games last season. Despite playing on one leg for the entire season, Bowers still ranked 13th in yards per route run and first downs per route run last season (per Fantasy Points Data). To understand Bowers’ 2026 upside and talent, we need to rewind to 2024 when he was the TE3 in fantasy points per game. During that season, he was seventh in target per route run rate, sixth in yards per route run, third in receiving yards per game, second in first read share, and seventh in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). 2026 Brock Bowers could be 2025 Trey McBride and be the runaway TE1 for fantasy football, with little target competition existing on the Raiders’ depth chart to challenge him.

Sure, Colston Loveland disappointed last season if you only look at his overall stats as the TE15 in fantasy points per game, but that was because he was languishing in a part-time role for most of the season. It wasn’t until after Week 15 that Loveland was consistently featured as a full-time member of the offense. In Weeks 16-20, he exploded as the Bears’ WR1 with a 25.6% target share, 81.6 receiving yards per game, 2.49 yards per route run, a 34% first-read share, 0.116 first downs per route run, and 17.2 PPR points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). If Loveland had produced like that over the course of the entire season, he would have given Trey McBride a run for his money as the TE1 in fantasy. Last year, those numbers, among all tight ends with at least 20 targets, would have ranked first, first, fourth, first, fourth, and second. If you compare those numbers against Trey McBride’s 2025 season and Brock Bowers‘ 2024 campaign, Loveland would have beaten both players in every single category except for fantasy points per game in McBride’s 2025 season. Loveland could easily pick up right where he left off this season and compete with Brock Bowers and Trey McBride for the TE1 crown. With D.J. Moore gone, Loveland has only Rome Odunze and Luther Burden to compete with for the top spot in Chicago’s target pecking order.

Before his 2025 season was cut short by a back injury, Sam LaPorta was the TE7 in fantasy points per game. Despite the injury-shortened season, LaPorta was still one of the most explosive tight ends in the NFL on a per-route basis. Among 59 qualifying tight ends, he ranked tenth in target share (17.8%), sixth in receiving yards per game (54.3), fifth in yards per route run (2.14), and eighth in first downs per route run (0.100, per Fantasy Points Data). The concerning thing for LaPorta during those nine games was his six red-zone targets and only one end-zone target. Considering the light usage near paydirt, it’s not shocking that he had only three touchdowns. That is worrisome, but touchdowns can be a fickle game to project year-to-year. Painting that usage in a positive light is the fact that, despite those numbers, LaPorta was still second on the team in not only target share but also red-zone targets during that stretch. The arrival of Drew Petzing as the offensive coordinator should be viewed as a plus for LaPorta, if we are to draw anything from his time in Arizona and his use of Trey McBride. LaPorta should turn in a strong 2026 season as a top-eight fantasy football tight end with top-five upside.

Isaiah Likely (TE – NYG)