Vacated targets is a very broad stat. To help break it down, analyst Joel Smyth isolates the vacated targets that were from real contributors/starters only, and who was added back into the offense.
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Which teams have an abundance of valuable targets left behind and which teams have the opposite, no starters leaving and top talent coming in? The below covers the former, the NFL teams with the most vacated targets from WR & TE that don’t have an equal amount of talent replacing it. Who do the extra targets go to?
Vacated Volume from Teams with Departures > Additions
Here’s a look at vacated volume of targets from teams with players leaving and coming in.
(Joel Smyth)
WAS – Miami has more air yards and red zone targets available after losing Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill and Darren Waller, but Washington still leads in most targets vacated from notable talent with the loss of Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz. The 171 targets will not go solely to a rookie third-round pick and TE Chig Okonkwo. With Washington having the same talent level from WR2 to WR6, Terry McLaurin can flirt with 9-10 targets per game in 2025. David Blough’s new offensive scheme can unlock a career-best version of McLaurin. The Commanders in total vacated 13 red-zone targets last season, the highest in the NFL.
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LAC – Keenan Allen’s 122 targets are gone and they added… David Njoku? Tre’ Harris will see a bump, but Ladd McConkey can be the main benefactor in the slot, taking some of the valuable targets Allen saw, including some of his 15 red-zone targets.
PHI – DeVonta Smith’s targets per route jumps from 20% to 30% without A.J. Brown for a reason. Rookie Makai Lemon has a large range of outcomes for total targets this season, but what sticks out to me most is the air yards available. Smith, far above anyone else, will be the go-to deep threat in an offense that has capitalized on big plays plenty in the past.
IND/GB/CHI – All in the same situation. A top talent exits the offense and the young talent left behind has a greater opportunity, with the franchise choosing not to add any real target competition. Is the 111 targets to Pittman split between the top-three receivers in Indy? Does Christian Watson explode as the primary red-zone threat for Green Bay? Who gets DJ Moore’s 13 end-zone targets in Chicago?
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PIT – Not on the above list, but they have 82 RB vacated targets. The next closest team is 47. Does Rico Dowdle have substantially more than 50 targets (his number from last season) or does Jaylen Warren’s extreme receiving efficiency get a massive bump in volume?
Vacated targets are fun, but nobody talks about the other side of the coin. Who added talent to their team with no targets left behind to fill? Below are the teams whose added talent far outweighs the available volume from.
Vacated Volume from Teams with Additions > Departures
Here’s a look at vacated target volume from teams with additions.
(Joel Smyth)
BUF – Dalton Kincaid has struggled to be a consistent red-zone option as a TE in his career. With Moore entering the fold and the rest of the squad running it back, Kincaid will likely have another season under 10 red-zone targets.
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DEN – Courtland Sutton relied on extreme red-zone volume to be a TD-dependent WR2 in fantasy. Although Franklin had plenty of volume that will be going to Waddle, the former Miami WR will still dig into Sutton’s share in a dangerous way. He becomes even more of a boom-bust option weekly, with most weeks leaning to the latter.
NO/NYJ – Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave will lead their teams in targets. However, each have two threats entering that can turn them from target monsters to just target leaders. The Saints added a receiving running back in Travis Etienne Jr. alongside their top-10 drafted WR Jordyn Tyson, and the Jets used both first-round picks on pass-catchers Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq with nobody exiting the building.
PIT – There are 109 targets left behind by Jonnu Smith and Calvin Austin. Is that enough? Smith’s usage will likely fall to the two high-paid TEs left in Pittsburgh while Pittman will attract more than Austin’s meager target volume. DK Metcalf’s already low 22% target share will dip further.
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Predicting volume is the key to finding breakouts in fantasy football. A volume uptick becomes more guaranteed when a team’s moves (or lack there of) backs it up. An increase in red zone work for Christian Watson seems all but certain, as does Josh Downs in a bigger role, or McLaurin’s path to a top-10 target share. It becomes less of a projection and more of a comparable expectation.