Cody Saftic
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 11, 2026 , 11:00 AM ET
• 4 min read
Tonight’s UFC 329 parlay features Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway in the main event, plus three more must-see fights from T-Mobile Arena.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Max Holloway during UFC 300 at T-Mobile Arena.
The wait is finally over as the “Notorious” Conor McGregor returns to competition for the first time in five years, much to the delight of fight fans across the globe.
Looking to spoil the party is fellow decorated former champion Max Holloway, who has his sights firmly placed on ruining the return and getting his revenge in Las Vegas tonight.
Headlined by the main event, here is my best UFC 329 parlay and free betting picks for Saturday, July 11.
Best UFC 329 parlay picks
Max Holloway moneyline
Corey Sandhagen to win by decision
Steveson/Ellison Under 1.5 total rounds
Luke Riley moneyline
Max Holloway moneyline
It’s already a tough task to beat Max Holloway under perfect conditions, but with Conor McGregor coming off a five-year layoff, I’m really not expecting a vintage version of him to show up.
Even at his best, McGregor often struggled against durable volume punchers, and much like Nate Diaz, Holloway should be able to stand his ground and eventually wear out Conor en route to a late-round stoppage win.
Fighting is often a game of “what have you done for me lately?”, and Holloway has been holding it down against the sport’s best fighters recently, while McGregor hasn’t won a fight of any kind in nearly seven years.
This is a giant task for a comeback fight, and I trust that it will be too much for the once legendary prize fighter to overcome.
Corey Sandhagen to win by decision
Corey Sandhagen’s defensive grappling has improved significantly over the last few years, and although elite wrestlers in the division can still ground him, Mario Bautista seems like enough of a step down that Sandhagen should be able to keep it standing, where he’ll thrive.
Despite both men being only one year apart in age, Sandhagen has already proven himself against a literal who’s who of the division, while Bautista has looked good against far lower-level competition.
These guys have faced off once before, with Sandhagen earning a first-round submission win. However, with both fighters proving to be decision fighters in recent times, I expect another win for Sandhagen, only this time it will be settled by the judges’ scorecards.
Steveson/Ellison Under 1.5 total rounds
This is an absolute squash match in every sense, and anything less than a first-round finish for Gable Steveson is going to be a bad look for him.
The former decorated wrestling champion, who is being touted as the next big thing in the heavyweight division, should be able to dictate exactly where he wants this fight to take place and should seize the win however he pleases.
Sitting at -2800 against Elisha Ellison, Steveson is officially the biggest favorite in UFC odds history, and I fully expect him to put on a show in his Octagon debut.
Luke Riley moneyline
Luke Riley has been perfect so far, both as a professional and amateur, where he is a combined 17-0 since starting his career six years ago. A protege of co-main event fighter Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett, Riley looks to be the next big talent coming out of Europe and is a perfect 2-0 since joining the UFC.
Riley’s takedown defence is still a work in progress, but if opponents fail to take him down, the Brit’s superior punching power and volume really start to shine. His opponent, Kai Kamaka, was actually released from the UFC five years ago after failing to impress and is now being used as a litmus test for up-and-coming prospects.
Kamaka might keep it close and last to a decision, but his wrestling isn’t enough to slow Riley’s attack, and he seems destined to get outworked, if not outright clipped and put away before the end of three rounds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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