F1 Hungarian Grand Prix Prediction, Picks & Odds: Hungaroring 2026

Race pick: Charles Leclerc to win (+456)

A wager on Antonelli to win is fine, but even if he takes the pole, his odds will always be in that ballpark.

As of right now, I’ll take a swing with Leclerc, who is on his best stretch of racing this season, and who’s odds will plummet if he’s starting at the front Sunday.

He’s started on the front row in two of his last three races, and that’s come with a win at the British GP and a second-place finish last week in Belgium.

Leclerc won the pole here last year, but faded to fourth. So he knows this course, and has something to prove.

The Ferrari might be the best car to handle the twisty and tight Hungaroring track, and he’s one of the sport’s most fearless, throwing his car into those corners.

Prop pick: Lando Norris podium finish (+213)

McLaren’s Lando Norris has been a force in Budapest. He won here last year and has finished no worse than runner-up in three straight years.

Norris is also coming off a terrific showing last week in Belgium, working through a 10-place grid penalty where he began in 13th, and into the points with a seventh-place finish.

The McLaren is equipped to work in those twisty and technical sectors of the circuit, and Norris is well versed in the one-stop strategy and tire management needed at the Hungaroring — it’s what got him a win last season.

🧠 How I’m picking the Hungarian Grand Prix

Budapest might be the only place where winning the pole might not necessarily be advantageous.

Each of the last five races have seen the pole sitter fail to take home the checkered flag. Norris won from the three-spot last year, while Oscar Piastri in 2024 and Max Verstappen in 2023 each started second and rode to victory.

Verstappen got his first Hungarian the year prior, weaving through the field from a 10th-pace start to take it all in 2022, while Esteban Ocon won it all after starting in eighth in 2021.

With that information, I’ll be sprinkling some around on the others behind Antonelli, who is the circuit’s current front-runner and seeking his seventh pole of the season.

If you’re looking for experience, look no further than Lewis Hamilton. Leclerc’s Ferrari teammate has cooled lately, finishing off the podium in two of his last three starts, but he’s won in Hungary eight times (though not since 2020).

Verstappen has found the podium twice in his last three races, and is always worth considering when there is a distinct technical aspect in maneuvering around a track.

This has been a McLaren stronghold, with Norris and Piastri finishing 1-2 in back-to-back years. While the three-peat is not a strong possibility, one of them finding the podium might be.

📋 Hungarian Grand Prix favorites

Once again, Kimi Antonelli is favored ahead of qualifying, sitting at +156. Behind him are the Ferrari pair of Lewis Hamilton (+426) and Charles Leclerc (+455), who almost have identical odds of winning.

Last year’s winner, Lando Norris, currently has an 8% chance of going back-to-back in Hungary. He would become the first repeat winner here since Max Verstappen finished first in 2022 and 2023.

🏆 Previous Hungarian Grand Prix winners

❓ Hungarian Grand Prix betting FAQs

Who is favored to win the Hungarian Grand Prix?

Kimi Antonelli is favored at +156 to win the Hungarian Grand Prix ahead of qualifiers.

When and where is the Hungarian Grand Prix?

The 2026 Hungarian Grand Prix takes place at the Hungaroring racetrack in Mogyorod, Hungary, on Sunday, July 26.

How can I watch the Hungarian Grand Prix?

Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 racing.

Who won the Hungarian Grand Prix in 2025?

McLaren’s Oscar Piastri won the Hungarian Grand Prix in 2025.

Pages related to this topic