Updated:
Jul 24, 2026 , 05:10 PM ET
• 4 min read
A trailer for Netflix Instadoc “The Prediction Games” centers on the World Cup final but is sparking plenty of controversy and a potential lawsuit from Kalshi.
Photo By – Reuters Connect.
An upcoming Netflix documentary is putting prediction markets under the microscope following the world’s biggest sporting event, but leading operator Kalshi is pushing back.
Key Takeaways
- Netflix’s latest Instadocs documentary will examine the rapid growth and broader impact of prediction markets.
- Kalshi has threatened to sue Netflix, objecting to a scene in Nevada despite court-ordered restrictions on its sports markets.
- Prediction markets saw massive World Cup activity, with Kalshi reporting nearly $1.9 billion in trades on the final alone.
Netflix unveiled the latest project in its Instadocs series Thursday, covering the rapidly expanding world of prediction markets through the lens of the recently contested World Cup final.
“Last weekend, more than $5.6 billion was wagered on the World Cup final through Polymarket and Kalshi, representing just a sliver of the overall action on prediction markets – a legal but controversial way to gamble on the outcome of almost anything,” the Netflix press release outlines.
“On July 26, the latest installment of Instadocs examines the phenomenon, exploring how tens of millions of people are diving into these markets – placing bets on anything from the World Cup and Taylor Swift’s wedding to elections, weather, and armed conflict – with all sorts of consequences.”
Titled “Instadocs: The Prediction Games,” the documentary is already making prediction market news given the controversial and brash nature of the title’s trailer and subject matter.
Whether it’s the World Cup or Taylor Swift’s wedding, tens of millions are betting on the outcomes of almost anything using prediction markets.
Go inside the world of this legal but controversial form of gambling in INSTADOCS: THE PREDICTION GAMES. Premiering July 26. pic.twitter.com/W7gsBl2Zd1
— Netflix (@netflix) July 23, 2026
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Trailer draws Kalshi’s ire
It appears prediction market operators aren’t thrilled with the project so far, as Kalshi asked Netflix to take down the trailer Thursday because of its “misleading” nature, according to CNN’s Marshall Cohen.
The trailer remained available Friday, and Kalshi is threatening to take legal action against Netflix, claiming the film contains “defamatory” and “fabricated” content, per a letter obtained by CNN.
Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets.
Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction.
The preview they released features a Kalshi trade slip that’s completely fabricated – it looks nothing like our UI. It’s either… https://t.co/ELm2ooLEqU
— Brandon Beckhardt (@beckhardt) July 24, 2026
The trailer seems to depict a World Cup watch party with a group of traders in Nevada despite court-ordered bans on prediction markets offering sports contracts to Nevada-based users.
Netflix said in the press release that Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour is featured in the documentary, as is Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Commodity Futures Trading Commission chair Michael Selig.
Prediction markets seize World Cup opportunity
Despite the controversies surrounding prediction markets, their success during the World Cup suggests the industry has no plans to slow down anytime soon.
Kalshi said users traded nearly $1.9 billion on the World Cup final, while the company added upward of 3 million new users and outpaced several major sports betting operators, including DraftKings and FanDuel.
Analyst firm H2 Gambling Capital estimated that prediction market sites accounted for 27% of all U.S. betting volume tied to the World Cup.