Updated:
Aug 6, 2026 , 11:14 AM ET
• 4 min read
Colby Marchio’s favorite home run picks for Thursday’s MLB slate, featuring one of the hottest bats in baseball, Wilyer Abreu.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Boston Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu (52) runs the bases after hitting a home run against the Chicago White Sox
Friday Junior has arrived! It is time to get down and dirty looking for some guys to go yard on this slightly smaller slate.
Here are my favorite MLB home run props for today’s slate, headlined by Boston Red Sox slugger Wilyer Abreu.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 6.
MLB home run props for today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jake Bauers |
+250 |
 Wilyer Abreu |
+276 |
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Home run prediction: Jake Bauers (+344)
A lot of Milwaukee Brewers bats find themselves in a great matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates right hander Braxton Ashcraft, but only one guy really stood out to me. First baseman Jake Bauers.
The 30-year-old has been on fire as of late, posting a .371 BA, .464 wOBA, .629 SLG and 1.079 OPS over his last 10 games. During that stretch, Bauers also owns a 198 wRC+, 53.3% hard hit rate and 28.6% HR/FB rate.
Ashcraft has allowed plenty of hard contact and elevated baseballs to left-handed hitters on the road this season. The last 60 lefties he has faced have posted a .351 xBA, .584 xSLG and .377 xwOBA against him.
With Bauers covering more than 61% of Ashcraft’s pitch mix, I think he’s a great look to leave the yard. I’d be comfortable taking this prop down to +300.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BREW, SNP
Home run prediction: Wilyer Abreu (+250)
I’m fully expecting the Boston Red Sox and Wilyer Abreu to give Luis Castillo a warm welcome in his Chicago White Sox debut this evening. By that, I mean they’re going to torch him, with Abreu leading the charge.
The Red Sox outfielder enters with an elite Batters-Box rating, covering nearly 91% of Castillo’s pitch mix. On the other side, Castillo owns the third-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box’s current season dataset.
Over his last 10 games, Abreu owns a .667 SLG, 1.008 OPS and 173 wRC+. During that stretch, he has posted a 16.7% barrel rate while elevating the baseball 66.7% of the time.
Castillo has struggled tremendously against left-handed hitters. Most recently, the last 60 lefties he has faced have produced a 14.6% barrel rate, 70.8% elevation rate, .406 ISO, .698 xSLG and .333 xwOBA against him.
I would try to snag this prop around +250. I’d hate to pay anything shorter than that for Abreu this evening.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, NESN
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
- HR picks: 90-338, +3.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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