Best Bets, Upgrades and Downgrades

Brad Powers
• Betting Analyst

21+ years betting experience

Updated:
Sep 2, 2026 , 04:15 PM ET

• 4 min read

Brad Powers breaks down his Week 1 college football power ratings, including his best bets and the teams he upgraded and downgraded after Week 0.

Each week during the season, I’ll be going over my biggest power ratings adjustments from the week prior and the best spot bets.

Week Zero offered some surprises, including North Carolina upsetting TCU as a touchdown-plus underdog and Virginia dominating NC State as a short favorite.

I don’t have any huge disparities in my power ratings this week, mainly because the lines have been posted for months now. However, there are some important discrepancies with my power ratings around key numbers that you can still take advantage of in this week’s college football picks.

Week 1 power ratings for the Top 10

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Brad Powers Week 1 top picks

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Brad Powers Week 1 power ratings

Alabama -27.5 over East Carolina (Sept. 5, Noon ET)

My power ratings make Alabama a 28.5-point favorite here, and Kalshi has one of the best prices in the market.

Alabama suffered a shocking upset loss to Florida State in last year’s opener. I think we will see a focused and angry Alabama team to start off the season this year.

It starts with quarterback Keelon Russell, who was my favorite long-shot to win the Heisman Trophy this summer. He will be playing behind an improved Alabama offensive line and will be throwing to wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, who will have a big bounce-back season.

On the other side, East Carolina suffered massive losses from last year’s team that had its highest finish in my power ratings in 15 years. East Carolina returns only three starters in total and also lost both of its coordinators. Its offensive line returns zero starters and faces a huge and talented Alabama defensive line.

I would play this to -28. 

South Florida -13.5 over FIU (Sept. 5, 7 p.m. ET)

My power ratings make South Florida a 14.5-point favorite here, and Kalshi has one of the best prices in the market.

South Florida is the far more talented team and should be plenty motivated playing an in-state school.

USF brings back only three starters from last year. However, new head coach Brian Hartline welcomes in the best transfer portal class in the Group of Six. That includes 24 players who played at Power Four schools last year and combined for 3,306 snaps, the equivalent of eight full-time starters.

On the other side, Florida International brings in only six transfers from Power Four schools who combined for a total of 41 snaps last year. Safe to say, USF will have a decided talent advantage here and will be plenty motivated in Hartline’s head-coaching debut.

I would play this to -14. 

Tulane +7.5 over Duke (Sept. 5, 3:30 p.m. ET)

One of the bigger line moves this week saw Tulane go from a 9.5-point underdog to a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. I agree with that move and still think there’s value on Tulane.

My power ratings make Tulane only a 6.5-point underdog, crossing through the key number of 7.

Tulane should be plenty confident here considering it beat Duke last year. Tulane has quietly become one of the best Group of Six programs, winning 43 games over the last four years. New head coach Will Hall was on the staff last year, so there is more continuity than you would expect.

Last year, Duke won the ACC for the first time since 1989. However, despite winning nine games, the Blue Devils were outgained on the season. They also unexpectedly lost starting quarterback Darian Mensah late in the transfer portal process.

I would play this to +7. 

Biggest upgrades from last week

📈 Memphis up 2 points

Memphis upset UNLV 27-21 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Memphis defensive line dominated the second half, as it finished the game with six sacks and 11 tackles for loss. If Memphis can pull another upset at Boise State next week, the Tigers would be the early front-runners to grab the Group of Six College Football Playoff bid.

📈 Virginia up 2 points

Virginia dominated NC State 34-8 as a 4-point favorite. The Cavaliers had a +2.8 yards-per-play margin. To put that stat in perspective, Notre Dame was No. 1 in the country last year with a +2.7 yards-per-play average margin for the season. Virginia has the most experienced roster in the country and played like it.

Biggest downgrades from last week

📉 TCU down 2.5 points

TCU lost 15-10 as a 7.5-point favorite vs North Carolina. The Horned Frogs were -1.7 in net yards per play. Quarterback Jaden Craig, who was the talk of fall camp as a possible early-round NFL Draft pick, averaged only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. That would have ranked in the bottom five nationally last year.

TCU also had 11 penalties and allowed a safety on a poor punt snap. Remember, each of the last three teams to lose the opener in Ireland failed to make a bowl game.

📉 UNLV down 2 points

UNLV was a 4.5-point favorite at home vs Memphis. Things were going to plan at halftime, with UNLV leading 14-7. However, UNLV was dominated at the line of scrimmage in the second half and lost its starting center to injury.

UNLV was a popular pick to make the College Football Playoff this summer. Now, its season is on the line at Hawaii this week, where it is favored by 3.

📉 NC State down 2 points

NC State lost to Virginia 34-8 as a 4-point underdog. One could argue it could have been even worse, as the Wolfpack were outgained 413-168.

NC State quarterback CJ Bailey entered the season with a lot of hype. However, Bailey completed only 12 of 23 passes for 84 yards and had a 25.2 QBR on a 0-100 scale. Safe to say, he misses his top five receivers and running back Hollywood Smothers from last year.

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