Chris Vasile
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Sep 23, 2026 , 09:28 PM ET
• 4 min read
Arch Manning remains the favorite to go No. 1 in the 2027 NFL Draft, but CJ Carr, Jeremiah Smith, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah, and Trinidad Chambliss are forming a crowded group behind him.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to pass.
Arch Manning remains the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, but behind him, this race is wide open.
The Texas quarterback leads the latest NFL Draft odds at 25%, while CJ Carr, Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith, Dante Moore, Darian Mensah, and fast-rising Trinidad Chambliss make up the chasing pack.
That gives this market two fascinating storylines: Can anyone close the gap on Manning, and can Smith overcome the positional value of the quarterbacks surrounding him to make a legitimate run at No. 1?
2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
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2027 NFL Draft favorites to go No. 1
Arch Manning (QB, Texas)
Arch Manning remains the favorite at 25%, but right now, the market is still betting more on his upside than what he’s consistently shown this season.
The fourth-quarter comeback against Ohio State showed exactly why NFL teams will be interested. But Manning hasn’t played well enough week to week to separate himself from this quarterback class.
That’s what makes Saturday at Tennessee important. Another big performance against a ranked opponent would go a lot further than beating up on an overmatched defense.
CJ Carr (QB, Notre Dame)
CJ Carr is still Manning’s closest challenger at 13%, but the pack behind him is getting crowded.
Carr has been efficient, protected the football, and helped Notre Dame start 3-0. That’s a good foundation, but eventually he’ll need more than wins over teams he’s supposed to beat.
With Smith, Moore, Mensah, and Chambliss all sitting between 11% and 13%, a signature performance against a top opponent could be what Carr needs to separate himself from the pack.
Jeremiah Smith (WR, Ohio State)
Jeremiah Smith might be the best pure football player in this market. His biggest obstacle is the position he plays.
A wide receiver hasn’t gone No. 1 overall since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996, and quarterbacks will always have the advantage when teams are picking at the top. Smith’s talent isn’t really the question.
His path probably requires two things: another monster season and no quarterback emerging as an obvious No. 1 pick. If that happens, Smith is talented enough to make this conversation very interesting.
Dante Moore (QB, Oregon)
Dante Moore is sitting at 12%, but don’t let Oregon’s loss to Oklahoma State completely shape the evaluation.
Moore didn’t play particularly well in that game, but one road loss doesn’t erase the arm talent that has made him one of the most intriguing quarterbacks in this class.
Beating up Portland State won’t move the needle much, either. Moore needs to show those same NFL-level throws against better competition. Saturday at USC gives him exactly that opportunity.
Darian Mensah (QB, Miami)
Darian Mensah isn’t a sleeper anymore. The numbers have become too ridiculous to ignore.
Mensah has 11 touchdown passes without an interception through three Miami starts and has thrown just eight incompletions. He started the Wake Forest game with 24 straight completions before finishing 30-for-34.
Now I want to see what happens when the windows get tighter, and the pressure gets heavier. If the accuracy holds against better defenses, Mensah’s 12% probability probably won’t stay there for long.
Trinidad Chambliss (QB, Ole Miss)
Nobody has done more to change this market than Trinidad Chambliss.
Throwing for 363 yards against LSU is what makes his rise different from a quarterback piling up numbers against bad September competition. Chambliss attacked a Top-10 defense, threw two touchdowns, and added the game-sealing score with his legs.
He’s completing 70% of his passes with seven touchdowns through three games, and now he gets another huge stage against Tennessee. Another performance like LSU, and 11% could look very different next week.
Popular NFL betting tools
NFL Draft betting trends
• Quarterback is the most important position on the football field, and following Las Vegas taking Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 in 2026, 22 of the last 29 first-overall picks have been QBs.
• All but two of the last 18 NFL Drafts have seen an offensive lineman get picked in the Top 10, with 2025 being no different, as Will Campbell went fifth, Armand Membou went seventh, and Kelvin Banks Jr. was picked ninth.
List of first overall NFL Draft picks
How to bet on the 2027 NFL Draft
Sportsbooks will post odds for the player to go first overall in the draft as soon as the previous year’s draft is over. Once the college football season begins in September, these odds could change weekly depending on how players are performing as well as the evaluations of trusted draftniks such as Mel Kiper Jr.
In addition, this NFL futures bet may also take into account the team needs of the worst team(s) in the NFL.
After the NCAA football season is over, NFL Draft odds will solidify after key events such as the underclassmen declaration deadline, the NFL Scouting Combine, and pro days. In the weeks leading up to the draft, sportsbooks will offer more NFL Draft prop bets.
Understanding NFL Draft odds
The odds of going first overall in the NFL Draft will typically look like this:
This means that if you placed a $100 bet on Manning, you would win $250 if the Longhorns QB goes first overall in 2027. When you get closer to the draft, and there is a consensus on who will go first overall, you might see a player with a minus sign (-) ahead of his odds, like this:
This means you’d have to bet $550 to win $100 on Moore being drafted first overall.
Above we have posted the American odds for the 2027 NFL Draft. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool.
Get more NFL Draft betting tips and strategies with our draft betting guide.
NFL Draft Odds FAQs
Texas Longhorns quarterback, Arch Manning (29%) is the early betting favorite to go No. 1 overall.
Along with Manning, fellow QB’s, CJ Carr and Darian Mensah are among the prospects to watch.
Indiana Hoosier QB, Fernando Mendoza went No.1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders.