MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Sunday (8/17)

Today, we’re looking at the early slate on each site. On DraftKings, the slate begins at 11:35 Eastern Time and includes nine games. FanDuel has a similar slate in that it begins at 11:35 Eastern Time and consists of the same nine games. The difference is that it includes a tenth game between the Diamondbacks and Rockies. None of the recommendations will be from that game.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/17)

• Garret Crochet is coming off the worst start of his season with five earned runs in only four innings. He was still able to generate five strikeouts which shows the upside he has in DFS. Going into his last start, he had 12 straight starts of at least 36 fantasy points on FanDuel with the upside of over 50 in any start.
• Cristian Javier made his first start of the season earlier this week. He struck out five over five innings with with a couple earned runs allowed via the home run. That start came against the Red Sox. Today, he gets a matchup against Baltimore. There is no team with a lower wRC+ in the month of August than the Orioles’ 63.
• Ryan Bergert’s two starts with the Royals have also been his two longest of the season at 5.2 innings. He has only allowed two earned runs in each of those starts. After striking out two in his first start, they jumped to eight strikeouts in his next start. Today, he has a matchup against the Chicago White Sox.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (8/17)

Today, we’re looking at the early slate on each site. On DraftKings, the slate begins at 11:35 Eastern Time and includes nine games. FanDuel has a similar slate in that it begins at 11:35 Eastern Time and consists of the same nine games. The difference is that it includes a tenth game between the Diamondbacks and Rockies. None of the recommendations will be from that game.

Sunday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (8/17)

• Garret Crochet is coming off the worst start of his season with five earned runs in only four innings. He was still able to generate five strikeouts which shows the upside he has in DFS. Going into his last start, he had 12 straight starts of at least 36 fantasy points on FanDuel with the upside of over 50 in any start.
• Cristian Javier made his first start of the season earlier this week. He struck out five over five innings with with a couple earned runs allowed via the home run. That start came against the Red Sox. Today, he gets a matchup against Baltimore. There is no team with a lower wRC+ in the month of August than the Orioles’ 63.
• Ryan Bergert’s two starts with the Royals have also been his two longest of the season at 5.2 innings. He has only allowed two earned runs in each of those starts. After striking out two in his first start, they jumped to eight strikeouts in his next start. Today, he has a matchup against the Chicago White Sox.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (8/17)

• With how the Milwaukee Brewers are playing right now, it’s hard to not recommend them in any matchup. They have scored over 40 more runs than any other team in August. Their matchup today is left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott. Earlier in the season, they had struggled against left-handed pitchers, but now have a top-10 OPS against them.
• Andrew Vaughn has been nothing short of sensational since coming to Milwaukee with nine home runs and a .343 batting average in 29 games. Since getting to the Brewers, he has a 244 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
• While Christian Yelich has been worse against left-handed pitchers, he also has been on a roll recently with a 1.228 OPS in August. He also has had success in Cincinnatti’s Great American Ballpark. Not counting Milwaukee and Miami where he played substantially more games, there is no park where he has more home runs than Cincinnati.
• A cheaper option in the Brewers’ lineup is Caleb Durbin. Brewers’ manager Pat Murphy makes sure that he is in the lineup against left-handed pitchers. He has a .788 OPS against left-handed pitchers and only a .670 OPS against right-handed pitchers.

Toronto Blue Jays Projected Lineup (8/17)

• It’s hard to recommend any team against Nathan Eovaldi. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season with a 1.71 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. That being said, many of the top hitters in the Blue Jays’ lineup have had Eovaldi’s number during their careers.
• Let’s start with the two superstars in the Blue Jays’ lineup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is never a bad choice. He is 10-24 against Eovaldi in his career with a double and two home runs. Bo Bichette has been a bit cold this week, but still has a .922 OPS over the last 28 days. He also has a similar track record to Guerrero Jr. against Eovaldi. Bichette has gone 9-26 with two doubles and a home run.
• Make sure that Ty France is in the lineup. With the Blue Jays many options, he has been in and out of the lineup recently. Given his track record against Eovaldi, I’m assuming that he’ll be in the lineup somehow today. France has gone 7-14 against Eovaldi in his career with three doubles and a home run.
• The final batter that should be considered for your Blue Jays’ stack is Alejandro Kirk. While Kirk doesn’t have a home run against Eovaldi, he has gone 6-11 with two doubles.

Core Studs

• Jose Altuve has a matchup today against Dean Kremer. He has gone 7-14 against him in his career with three doubles and a home run. He has been hitting well in the second half with an .843 OPS.
• Giancarlo Stanton continues to hit the ball as hard as ever with a 95.3 mile per hour average exit velocity and a 55.9% hard hit rate. Today, he gets a matchup against Miles Mikolas who he has hit two home runs against in only six at-bats.
• You can play Vinnie Pasquantino against right-handed pitcher. He has an .806 OPS against right-handed pitchers, but only a .642 OPS against left-handed pitcher. Today, he has a matchup against right-handed pitcher Davis Martin who he has two home runs against in only seven at-bats.

Value Plays/Punts

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Clay Holmes (SP, RP – NYM) – Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Going back to June 13th, Clay Holmes has faced between 19 and 24 batters each of his 11 starts. That means in order to hit five strikeouts, he has to strike out about 23% of the batters he faces. That also happens to be Seattle’s strikeout rate who is his opponent today.

Ketel Marte (2B, DH – AZ) – Over 1.5 Total Bases

As I’m typing this, the expectation is that Antontio Senzatela will be today’s starting pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. He has given up the most hits in baseball with 159 allowed in only 103 innings. That’s a matchup to exploit. Ketel Marte has gone over 1.5 total in four of his last five games, and should do so again today.

Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) – Under 17.5 Pitching Outs

This will be Aaron Nola’s first big-league start since the middle of May. He made three rehab starts where he recorded nine outs, eleven outs, and seventeen outs. You could expect that number to keep rising, but even in his seventeen out game, he only faced 21 batters. Before he was injured, he was typically facing around 23 or 24. He will have to be efficient to get 18 outs.

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