Breakout Candidate: Lian Bichsel, D
The obvious pick would be Mavrik Bourque, but with so much talent ahead of him, I fail to see how he would get the requisite minutes to be relevant in most fantasy leagues. Bichsel is not a high-ceiling player, but he is exceptional in one category: hits.
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Among defensemen with at least 10 games played last season, Bichsel ranked first with 16.43 hits per 60 minutes, finishing with 155 hits and 41 penalty minutes in 38 games. If players such as Jeremy Lauzon and Luke Schenn can find their way onto fantasy rosters at various points throughout the season, then so will Bichsel. In banger leagues, I think Bichsel will become a very popular streaming option.
If Glen Gulutzan makes good on his promise to increase the Stars’ physical play, you can bet Bichsel will play a big part of that.
Buy Low Candidate: Tyler Seguin, C/RW
The obvious issue with Seguin’s fantasy value is his inability to stay healthy. But, when he is, he can be a very good depth option for points. Last season, he scored 21 points in 20 games, managing to stay healthy for the first two months of the season before returning game 82 of the regular season. He’s currently not getting drafted in most Yahoo leagues and a great pick in the last round of your draft. At such a low cost, it also wouldn’t feel penal to drop Seguin should he get injured. With multi-position eligibility, he’s also good for roster flexibility and getting face-off wins from the RW slot.
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Riser: Thomas Harley, D
There’s little debate about this one after a huge breakout season. The question is how high Harley’s ceiling really is, and I think he has all the makings of a top-tier, top-pairing defenseman. I’ve been a fan for a long time and feel he is the proper choice to run the Stars’ power play. Harley edges Miro Heiskanen in both participation, scoring a point on a higher percentage of the Stars’ power-play goals, and also generates more expected goals. Should Glen Gulutzan give Harley the coveted PP1 QB role, his fantasy value will certainly increase and put him closer to the 60-point range and beyond.
Fallers: Miro Heiskanen, D
If Harley takes the power play, then Heiskanen’s fantasy value will likely dip. His point-per-game average has dipped in three straight seasons – 0.92, 0.76, 0.50 – and declining power-play point totals – 34, 21, 7 – are obvious reasons why that’s happening. Heiskanen is the classic better-in-real-life type of defenseman, and without the boost from the power play will end up somewhere around the 40-50 point range with limited value in peripherals.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.