Don’t be surprised if … Baker Mayfield lights up the Eagles, Cam Skattebo is fantasy’s top rookie

Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.

It is clearly big news for the NFL world that the New York Giants have decided to promote rookie Jaxson Dart into the starting QB role, sending veteran QB Russell Wilson to the bench. The move should have repercussions for the fantasy football world as well, not so much that managers in standard formats will trust Dart, but that second-year WR Malik Nabers should see more and better targets downfield. Dart may or may not turn the New York offense into a juggernaut, but at least everyone will be watching.

Don’t be surprised if … Giants RB Cam Skattebo leads all rookies in fantasy points

Yep, all eyes are on Dart, but Skattebo is poised to make a greater impact for fantasy purposes. There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. In a typical fantasy league, perhaps two thirds of them may be on rosters. Things are different at running back. Fantasy managers are desperate for relevant options, especially as bye weeks approach. Next week, for example, Atlanta Falcons star Bijan Robinson and Green Bay Packers star Josh Jacobs will not play. Many/most fantasy managers who have Skattebo will have him active in their lineups.

I think many Skattebo investors should have him active this week. We can debate the competency of New York’s offensive line and, perhaps, the team’s playcalling, but it may not matter with Skattebo, the Arizona State product secured in the fourth round. He is an explosive, powerful runner who invites contact and punishes defenders. Sure, all running backs need space to run, but Skattebo is built different. Expect at least 60 rushing yards each week and some receptions. He caught six of eight targets in Week 3. If Dart throws his way, this is a potential RB1 option.

It didn’t take long for Skattebo to outshine last year’s starter Tyrone Tracy Jr. (shoulder), now out for the next few weeks. Tracy, who rushed for 839 yards as a rookie but didn’t seem fit for the long-term role (he played WR in college), is averaging 3.1 yards per rush this season. OK, so the offensive line is bad. Skattebo averages 4.4 yards per rush, so it wasn’t that bad. Devin Singletary is a competent backup, but not special in any way. Skattebo runs over and through defenders. He is an RB2 option this week, and moving forward, potentially more, regardless of opponent.

Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• Why would Skattebo thrive behind a rough offensive line when Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty cannot? Jeanty will improve. Expect this to be the week — I guess I will say it every week — Geno Smith throws the former Boise State star some passes. It is alarming and incomprehensible that Jeanty has three receiving yards on six targets in three games. I would play Skattebo over Jeanty, but I would play them both.

• Being that I roster Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry on more than a few teams, seeing him fumble in each of the first three games of the season hasn’t been fun. Henry ran all over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1, but better defense and game flow have kept his numbers down since then. Henry fumbled three times over the past two seasons combined. This shouldn’t be happening. To most potential investors, the risk in Henry is his age. They think this is the end. I don’t think so. This fumbling problem will cease. Henry will rush for more than 100 yards this week against the Chiefs, thus restoring confidence.

The theory goes that Mayfield, averaging a mere 205 passing yards per game so far (last season he averaged 265 yards), may struggle against the similarly unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles because WR Mike Evans (hamstring) is out and Chris Godwin Jr., assuming he plays, won’t be on the field for close to every snap. Rookie Emeka Egbuka is great, former Giant Sterling Shepard is serviceable, but Mayfield (biceps), who has been limited in practice this week, will be compromised and under heavy pressure from the Philly defensive front.

I think we should be well past the point of doubting Mayfield, a top-10 fantasy QB in each of his two Buccaneers seasons. He faced the Eagles twice in that span (once in the playoffs), and he passed for 684 yards and five touchdowns, adding another rushing score, with nary a turnover. The Buccaneers seem to have Philadelphia’s number, especially at home. The Eagles have one good cornerback. It’s going to be hot. It may not matter who plays at wide receiver, I see points being scored. It’s up to Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to score more, but both QBs are worth it.

Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• Minnesota Vikings backup Carson Wentz set a record Sunday when he started for his sixth NFL franchise over the past six seasons (Eagles, Colts, Commanders, Rams, Chiefs, Vikings). It is a dubious mark, to be sure, but the experienced Wentz may be a better option to lead this “defense first, run the football a close second” team. “Rookie” J.J. McCarthy (technically a sophomore, but he missed last season) was a turnover machine in two games. I’m not saying his ankle injury is a ruse, but the Vikings were pleased with how Wentz handled the offense Sunday, because it worked. RB Jordan Mason did most of the lifting. Why would the Vikings alter this when McCarthy returns to health? Wentz isn’t exactly Favre-ian for durability, but he can be instructed to take care of the football. He may keep the starting role until an injury pops up, thus becoming superflex-relevant.

• I don’t think the Jacksonville Jaguars would bench Trevor Lawrence anytime soon, mainly because of his contract, but also because there isn’t an enticing backup. Nick Mullens is 30. He isn’t Jaxson Dart. Honestly, if Mac Jones was still there, I do wonder. Anyway, Lawrence looks awful so far, completing 55.8% of his passes and with an interception in each game. Star WR Brian Thomas Jr. has seven catches on 25 targets! Lawrence isn’t throwing deep, either, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. I don’t like giving up on players I liked three weeks ago (mainly because of Thomas and Travis Hunter), but perhaps there is an injury we don’t know about?

Don’t be surprised if … TE Tucker Kraft leads the Packers in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches this season

Kraft enters the Week 4 road game against a sputtering Dallas Cowboys defense — if only they still rostered a significant pass rusher — leading the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches. This isn’t a revelation, as he led the Packers in TD receptions last season, and he finished just behind Jayden Reed in receptions. Kraft finished 10th in TE scoring last season, and some expected even more production this season. Despite a quiet outing against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 — few Packers thrived, and Kraft was dealing with a sore knee — Kraft looks like the safest bet in Green Bay’s passing offense.

We aim to be positive when declaring surprising predictions, but one could easily evaluate Kraft’s potential emergence as QB Jordan Love’s top option as an indictment of the young wide receivers the franchise has accumulated in recent drafts. In fact, the two are connected. Kraft, a third-round selection in 2023, is doing the best work, especially after the catch, where he really shines. Love is not the high-volume thrower he was in 2023, and this is by team design, but when he throws, Kraft boasts a 19% target share.

It is quite noteworthy that former Packer (and future Hall of Famer) Davante Adams is the most recent player in Green Bay to surpass the rather low total of 900 receiving yards in a season, doing so with the help of QB Aaron Rodgers in 2021. The last player other than Adams to get there was Jordy Nelson in 2016. Perhaps no Packers will reach 900 receiving yards this season, including Kraft. Love isn’t throwing much. Reed (collarbone) may not play again until November. Rookie Matthew Golden isn’t seeing many targets. Ordinary Dontayvion Wicks isn’t gaining many yards.

Perhaps the young, enticing Packers wide receivers embarrass the terrible Cowboys secondary Sunday night, but I may still view it as an aberrant performance, not something likely to stick for three more months. The Packers want Love to play it safe and avoid turnovers, not throw the football downfield and risk a change in possession. Kraft tends to be the open receiver in the intermediate passing game. I don’t see Love approaching QB1 status and no Packers WR looks like more than a WR4. Kraft, however, is a safe TE1.

Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:

• New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave caught 87 passes during the 2023 season, back when QB Derek Carr was among the top 10 in pass attempts and completions. Olave is pacing for more than 100 receptions this season, with second-year QB Spencer Rattler at the helm. Can this continue? Leaving aside Olave’s history of concussions, we hope it can. Olave isn’t doing much (and can’t) with all these short receptions at only 4.6 yards per target and 2.3 yards after the catch. Still, the catches count, and it may make him a potential WR1 option, even without major yards or touchdowns.

  Finally, why do we assume Rattler cedes the starting role to rookie Tyler Shough this season? Everything Rattler throws is a short pass, because that’s what the Saints want. He’s performing as expected.

• San Francisco 49ers sophomore Ricky Pearsall has surpassed 100 receiving yards twice in three weeks, and it hasn’t mattered who plays QB. Pearsall ranks fourth in yards per reception, but the fellows ahead of him (Jameson Williams, Alec Pierce, Tyquan Thornton) are not high-volume options. Pearsall may be. Things should only improve when Brock Purdy plays, and Pearsall looks like a definite 1,000-yard option and potential WR2.

• CeeDee Lamb will not be catching Dak Prescott fastballs for the next week or more, and who knows if he will be compromised even after he returns. It is hardly outlandish that we project TE Jake Ferguson will continue to lead the position in targets and receptions, since he has 26 of the former and 22 of the latter in just the past two games. WR George Pickens gets into the end zone, Ferguson gets them into the red zone. This can work for fantasy. I downgraded Prescott for this week because he faces the Packers, but not long term, with or without Lamb. Perhaps Ferguson is this season’s Evan Engram, circa 2023 (114 receptions, 4 TDs). That would be immensely valuable.