Fantasy Football Target Trends from Week 7: Christian McCaffrey on pace for the best RB receiving season ever

Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.

RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers

McCaffrey has been an outlier for so much of his career. It’s funny how veteran backs had a lovely Renaissance in 2024, except for McCaffrey — he was hurt as the season opened. And now in 2025, so many veteran backs are struggling (Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara), but McCaffrey is humming right along.

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You know McCaffrey currently ranks second in RB fantasy points and in half-point PPR points per game. But let’s appreciate the genesis of those ranks. McCaffrey has 53 catches — that’s 21 more than any other running back. McCaffrey has 68 targets — that’s 25 clear of any other back. (Let’s note for posterity, De’Von Achane ranks second in both categories.) And McCaffrey’s 516 receiving yards are 126 better than Bijan Robinson, although Robinson has already had a bye.

Some magic numbers are in play for McCaffrey, the receiver. Only five running backs in NFL history have ever made it to 1,000 receiving yards in a season, with McCaffrey one of the five. No one’s cracked the 1,100-yard barrier. At McCaffrey’s current pace, he’d finish with 1,253 receiving yards. We are all witnesses.

CMC’s historic receiving pace

Seeing the full picture, McCaffrey’s receiving bump has been largely tied to injuries in the San Francisco receiving room. Perhaps when those wideouts get healthy — if it ever truly happens — McCaffrey will see a decrease in his receiving work. But we should also note that McCaffrey had by far his most impressive rushing game of the year in Week 7, and that coincided with the return of TE George Kittle, a blocking machine. So perhaps the second half will give us a better running version of McCaffrey, while the receiving work slows down a bit.

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Me, I root for history. I hope CMC catches all the passes and races into the record book again. Four-digit milestones are cool, especially when they’re as rare as this one.

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TEs Trey McBride, Cardinals, and Jake Ferguson, Cowboys

I’ve long posited that McBride’s touchdown problem was mostly a Kyler Murray problem — Murray is undersized and often struggles to see or make connections when the field condenses. The last two weeks have supported that theory — with Jacoby Brissett starting, McBride has three touchdowns and a juicy 18-146-3 line. Remember, McBride had just six touchdowns in his first three seasons, and a modest two in the five Murray starts this year.

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The Cardinals probably have to go back to Murray when he’s healthy again — there’s too much invested there. And while Brissett is a capable backup and has played well in his relief work, he’s still a 33-year-old veteran with a capped upside. But the McBride spike of late reminds us of the collaborative nature of NFL play. Success has many parents, and so, unfortunately, does failure, at least at the goal line.

Ferguson’s positive touchdown regression has the opposite slant responsible — it’s enjoying life with a healthy Dak Prescott. Ferguson didn’t have a single touchdown last year but remember, Cooper Rush had to start eight games. And Dallas is set up to be the ultimate fantasy carnival in 2025 — explosive offense, lousy defense. The Cowboys currently slot fourth in offensive DVOA, but just 30th in DVOA. Even if Jerry Jones finds a pass-rusher at the trade deadline, this defense isn’t likely to get fixed.

Tight end touchdowns are most likely to come from around the goal line, and McBride (13 targets) and Ferguson (11 targets) are getting the most red-zone opportunities. The next three on that list are Tyler Warren (nine targets; did Chicago take the wrong tight end?), Theo Johnson (nine) and Tucker Kraft (eight). McBride and Ferguson also lead tight ends in first-read targets, a signal stat. Warren ranks fourth in that key metric.

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WR Zay Flowers, Ravens

Every week I get asked about buy-low targets, and Flowers is a name that pops to the front. He’s done very little since that glorious WR1 showing in the opener — zero touchdowns, and no games inside the top 25 at the position. But the past two games have been (I’m not meaning to pick on him) Cooper Rush games, and it’s coincidentally driven the Baltimore offense into a ditch.

Lamar Jackson is likely back this week, and the Ravens have a schedule you can make hay against. According to Tankathon, it’s the tenth-easiest slate remaining. If you prefer a shorter window, Chicago is a plus draw this week, and Miami is a dream in Week 9. There’s a reason why the betting markets still see Baltimore as live in the AFC North (the Ravens and Steelers are roughly co-favorites right now for the division, even with Baltimore at 1-5).

When Jackson has targeted Flowers this year, the result is 10.9 YPA and a 121.3 rating, elite stats. Those numbers collapsed to 6.8 YPA and a 64.8 rating with Rush. Flowers still ranks ninth in receivers in market share (including the Rush games), and an injury-riddled Baltimore defense could force some pinball football. I was bullish on a Year 3 breakout for Flowers before the season, and that story can resume this week.

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WR Troy Franklin, Broncos

I’m about as big a Courtland Sutton fan as you’ll find, and he’s returned his ADP. He’s currently WR11 in points per game, and he’s been securely inside the top 24 cutline in four of his past five starts. Even with occasional Bo Nix streakiness, Sutton is a hang-your-hat type of player.

But we need to recognize that Franklin is carving out a role here. He’s only four targets behind Sutton, even though the success rate and YPC are lower. And Franklin is getting opportunities in the scoring areas. Franklin has been targeted 11 times in the red area — that’s tied for third in the league — and that doesn’t include two successful conversion catches. Franklin is 6-foot-3, and was a touchdown scorer at Oregon (23 spikes his last two years). And obviously Nix and Franklin played together with the Ducks for those two fruitful seasons.

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Many of you can add Franklin right now — his roster tag in Yahoo is a modest 25%. He’s getting enough run to be relevant, playing about two-thirds of the snaps. Nix had a second-half bump in his rookie year, and maybe we’ll see a rally again from this passing game. Last week’s miracle comeback against the Giants was a good start.

Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 7

Wide Receiver

Running Back

Tight End

Note: Tight ends Cade Otton and T.J. Hockenson also had nine targets in Week 7.