Big Brother Season 28 Winner Odds: Rick Devens Leads Pack

Updated:
Aug 20, 2026 , 06:32 AM ET

• 4 min read

Big Brother is back, and prediction markets traders think they know who this year’s winner is already. We take a look at the board as the Week 6 elimination looms and the reality TV drama heats up.

Another summer of backstabbing is officially underway, because Big Brother is back on our screens and in our lives!

The Big Brother prediction market has already started to back a handful of contestants, but nothing is certain with a show like this. And we’ve still got plenty of time to go until the final.

Chuk Anyanwu left in Week 5, and we have a few hours until Week 6 claims another scalp. 

Nominees: Haley, Kamu and Angela
Week 5 Elimination: Chuk

Reality TV markets react instantly to whatever’s happening on-screen, which means price jumps happen all the time. While some traders are taking contracts based on early alliance formations, others are relying on whispers they hear on live feeds and social chatter.

Public opinion can swing on as little as a single diary room session, but platforms like Kalshi enable fans to back their intuition with contracts that just might see a profit before the show is over. Here’s what’s been happening on the markets following week one.

Big Brother Season 28 Prices: Our Top Five Contenders

Houseguest		Buy ‘Yes’	Buy ‘No’
Rick Devens	18%	18¢	83¢
Dee Valladares	14%	15¢	86¢
Mallory Aurichio	14%	14¢	88¢
Brett Pfeiffer	10%	10¢	91¢
Drew Campbell	9%	9¢	92¢

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Key Takeaways:

• Survivor Advantage Holds Strong: Survivor 45 winner Dee Valladares has slipped to second place in the prediction markets.  Fellow Survivor veteran Rick Devens has assumed the market lead on 18%.
• Campbell’s Blockbuster Escape: After successfully saving himself from eviction, Drew Campbell moved into third place in the winner market at 11% but is now down the field.
• Week Five Eviction: Chuk Anyanwu is the latest to leave the Big Brother house. He was evicted over favorite-to-go, Haley Thogmartin, who won the BB Blockbuster competition this week.

Big Brother Winner 2026: The Remaining Houseguests

This market has sprung into action following the premiere, with over $2.9 million in trading volume stacked up already. And as we recently saw with the Love Island prediction markets, we can expect that total to rise and rise as the on screen drama heats up.

Like all the most watched markets on Kalshi, this one uses a binary ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ format for each contestant. That means that every contract price represents the market’s consensus probability of that outcome occurring.

Early movement on the board shows the market already thinks some have far more potential than others. But will traders be proven right?

Houseguest		Buy ‘yes’	Buy ‘no’
Rick Devens	18%	18¢	83¢
Dee Valladeres	14%	15¢	86¢
Mallory Aurichio	14%	14¢	88¢
Barrett Pfeiffer	10%	10¢	91¢
Drew Campbell	9%	9¢	92¢
Kamu Kirk	9%	10¢	91¢
Taylor Brown	8%	9¢	92¢
Yash Patel	7%	7¢	94¢
Melody Morris	6%	7¢	94¢
Angela Murray	4%	5¢	96¢
LaTrice Verrett	3%	3¢	98¢
Haley Thogmartin	2%	2¢	99¢
❌ Ashley Trail	1%	1¢	—
❌ Chuk Anyanwu	1%	1¢	—
❌ Jason De Puy	1%	1¢	—
❌ Lyric Medeiros	1%	1¢	—
❌ Rome Seymour	1%	1¢	—

Big Brother Winner Odds: Prediction Market Value Picks

If you’re looking for value on reality TV prediction markets, you need to be able to spot instances where the crowd might have overreacted to a single episode or underpriced a player’s long-term capabilities. Here are a few to consider.

Rick Devens | ‘Yes’ 18¢

This well-liked Survivor veteran is seriously underpriced by the market, which gives him an 18% implied probability of winning this season.

Devens knows how to survive when things aren’t going his way on reality shows. And he’s hugely charismatic, which means he’s likely to win over key players in the house.

Rick’s threat level is high, but a 16¢ price points means there’s little capital at risk for a considerable upside, if he successfully navigates the early phases of the competition. We think he’s got what it takes.

Dee Valladares | ‘No’ 86¢

Betting against the current frontrunner might seem counterintuitive, but buying ‘No’ contracts on Valladares at 86¢ makes sense given what we know so far.

Historically, Week One Heads of Household in Big Brother carry an enormous target on their backs for the rest of the season. With an 86% implied probability of not winning, this ‘No’ position is highly likely to result in a payout.

The contracts will also rise in price very quickly should anything go wrong for Dee in the coming days.

Drew Campbell | ‘Yes’ 9¢

Drew entered the game with a lower profile than some of the better known reality stars in the house, but he’s now starting to show that potential we’ve been talking about since the show launched. 

Campbell’s got a massive risk-to-reward ratio right now. Despite being named a week one have-not, he quietly integrated into the dominant crossovers alliance. His price dropped, however, after he received an eviction nomination from Haley Thogmartin, who won the Head of Household competition on Thursday night.

Despite being a favorite for eviction on August 4, Campbell managed to stay in the competition. It meant an immediate jump in his ‘Yes’ price on August 7, putting him in third place on the board. But that ‘Yes’ price remains relatively low. This is the flip opportunity to watch. 

More Big Brother Prediction Markets to Watch

The overall winner market might be the one traders are paying most attention to, but it’s not the only Big Brother prediction market available right now.

There are now markets for second and third place, along with a weekly elimination market giving great insight into market sentiment around the person most likely to head out of the door next.

The Podium Markets: 2nd & 3rd Place Dynamics

The runner-up and third place markets both offer an intriguing glimpse into player threat perception versus long-term survivability. Players perceived as big targets often trade higher in placement markets than in outright win markets.

Week Six Elimination: Is Haley Thogmartin Still in Danger?

The highest volume outside of the main winner market can be found on the elimination market, which launches every week. Week Five’s market has just resolved, with Chuk Anyanwu making way.

Keep an eye on the new market for Week Six when it launches. We will offer some updated prices and picks as we go. 

Strategy Tips for Trading the Big Brother Winner 2026

If you’re considering backing up your Big Brother predictions with real contracts on a platform like Kalshi, you need to know what to look out for when buying and selling on reality TV outcomes. Here are a few factors you’ll definitely want to bring into the equation.

• Live Feed Data: The television broadcast is heavily edited and delayed. True market moves happen in real time as events unfold on the Paramount Plus live feeds, so its these feeds that you’ll need to pay attention to if you want to get ahead on prediction markets.
• Flip Opportunities: Do not feel obligated to hold your contracts until the finale in September. If you buy a contestant’s ‘Yes’ contracts at 5¢ and they win a crucial Power of Veto, jumping to 25¢ as a result, you have the option to sell immediately and lock in a 400% profit.
• Overreaction Price Swings: The Big Brother fandom is notoriously reactionary. If a player has a bad segment or a minor argument, the market often underprices them. When this happens, traders can buy the dip on players who have proven their knack for strategy but just might be unpopular for a short while.

Big Brother Strategies: What Can We Learn from the Past 10 Years? 

Over the years we’ve seen Big Brother contestants triumph in a whole range of weird and wonderful ways. Let’s take a look back and see which strategies proved the most effective over the past 10 years, and what that could mean for our prediction market picks as Season 28 gets underway. 

How to Trade Big Brother Season 28 on Kalshi

If you want to turn your reality TV expertise into a trading portfolio, getting started on Kalshi is straightforward. Here’s a step-by-step guide to get you started.

1. Account Setup: Sign up on Kalshi and fund your account using a bank transfer, wire, or card payment.
2. Navigate: Search for “Big Brother” in the search bar or navigate to the “Culture” tab on the sidebar.
3. Execute: Choose your Houseguest, select either a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contract, enter your desired contract limit price, and click submit.
4. Monitor: Track your portfolio in real time and sell your shares whenever you want to secure profits or cut losses before the final vote.

Big Brother Season 28 FAQs

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