Some might have predicted a first-round stoppage when Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane met in the main event of UFC 321 in Abu Dhabi on Saturday, but no one could have foreseen the stoppage being because of an incidental eye poke. It was, to be frank, a bummer to see Aspinall’s highly anticipated first title defense end in a no contest after a main card that already had placed a new champion atop the strawweight division, a likely No. 1 contender in the men’s bantamweight division and had hinted at the next challenger for the winner of Aspinall vs. Gane.
The UFC 321 headliner will almost certainly be rescheduled immediately — maybe even this year — but would it have ever happened in the first place if the UFC hadn’t spent so much time pairing Jon Jones with Stipe Miocic in 2023? Brett Okamoto has to wonder.
Andreas Hale and Jeff Wagenheim also posit that the conditions are right for Mackenzie Dern to make an extended reign at strawweight and that Umar Nurmagomedov could get another title shot sooner rather than later.
The fallout of Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic continues
When something like this happens in the heavyweight division, I can’t help but go back to the UFC’s decision to book Jones vs. Miocic in 2023 (and again in 2024, when the original date got delayed by a year because of injury). It was such an unnecessary fight. We waited over a year for a result we already knew: that Jones would finish Miocic, who essentially came out of retirement. Why did the UFC do that? Money? How much money is it now costing the company to have a heavyweight division in ruins? If the UFC had really wanted to bring Miocic back into the fold, it should have forced him to fight Tom Aspinall once Jones went down for that title fight in 2023.
If the UFC had started to promote Aspinall in 2023, imagine how different this division might look. At the very least, it wouldn’t feel so stagnant. It might not be setting the world on fire because, frankly, it doesn’t currently have the depth for that, but at least it wouldn’t feel like a division in which nothing has happened for three years. I can’t imagine how frustrating it is for Aspinall, which is why his father, Andy, is talking about fighting out their contract with the UFC and pursuing boxing. Aspinall would be the second heavyweight champion in the past several years to do that if it were to come to pass, joining former UFC champion Francis Ngannou.
I’m crying over spilled milk, and I know it. Let me. The heavyweight division doesn’t feel real good right now, and the UFC heavily contributed to that for the sake of a fight that really was barely interesting. — Okamoto
Mackenzie Dern is becoming a complete fighter at just the right time
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Mackenzie Dern wins the vacant women’s strawweight title
Mackenzie Dern defeats Virna Jandiroba by decision to win the women’s strawweight title.
Although she was 5-4 in her past nine fights, it was clear that Dern had been evolving as the world-class grappler was focused on improving her striking. It had long been the missing tool that prevented Dern from reaching the lofty expectations set when she debuted for the UFC in 2018.
But it all finally came together for her at just the right time against Virna Jandiroba.
With Zhang Weili vacating the strawweight title and there being no clear top contender to stand opposite the No. 1-ranked Jandiroba, the UFC opted to opportunistically thrust Dern into a title fight in what can only be described as a now-or-never situation for the fan favorite.
And it worked.
Dern, who defeated Jandiroba by decision in December 2020, used her striking to grind out a unanimous decision and claim the vacant title. Dern managed to be effective enough with her striking to force Jandiroba into takedown attempts throughout the fight. Jandiroba managed to take Dern down nine times but was largely ineffective due to Dern’s excellence in grappling. With Jandiroba unable to find an advantage anywhere in the Octagon, she was relegated to striking exchanges that saw her outstruck by Dern 249-208.
To be clear: There is a significant gap between the current champion and the former champion. Should Weili decide to come back to strawweight after she faces Valentina Shevchenko for the flyweight title on Nov. 15, she would likely be a significant betting favorite to regain the championship against Dern. If and until then, the new champion is rounding out her game at a time when there isn’t a true multidimensional opponent waiting in the wings. She’s now competent enough in her standup to be competitive against the division’s best strikers (Amanda Lemos, Jessica Andrade and Yan Xiaonan), even though she has lost to all of them previously. And her ground game will always give her the edge against fellow grapplers and wrestlers, such as Tatiana Suarez and Gillian Robertson.
She may still be viewed as a transitional champion until she secures her first title defense, but the evolution of Mackenzie Dern is noteworthy and has finally seen her ascend to the top of the strawweight mountain. — Hale
Not all title shot eliminator fights are created — or finish — equally
The two fights immediately before the title bouts both pitted championship contenders looking to secure a golden opportunity. While the two winners may have succeeded at that, only one instilled fans with hope that if he’s granted a title fight, it has a decent chance of being a changing of the guard.
At heavyweight, Alexander Volkov won for the fifth time in his past six fights, but his victory over Jailton Almeida did not inspire thoughts that he could dethrone Tom Aspinall. Volkov has lost to only two men in his most recent 11 fights — Saturday’s headliners, Aspinall and Ciryl Gane. And while both of his losses to Gane went the distance, the second ending in a controversial split decision, Volkov got smoked by Aspinall in 2022, losing by first-round submission.
Why should anyone believe that would change after watching Volkov get taken down seven times and controlled on the canvas for long stretches during his slim victory over Almeida? It would seem likely that Aspinall and Gane will run it back after their anticlimactic no contest, but even looking beyond that, where does Volkov fit in?
On the other hand, men’s bantamweight Umar Nurmagomedov raised his stock by bouncing back from his only career loss — to champion Merab Dvalishvili in a January title fight. Nurmagomedov put on a strong performance against a game Mario Bautista, landing nearly 60% of his strikes and amassing 11 takedowns. Watching that whetted appetites for a second Dvalishvili-Nurmagomedov clash. Bring it on. — Wagenheim