Don’t be surprised if … Mariota has fantasy value, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown finish strong

Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised! NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.

Don’t be surprised if … Marcus Mariota is a strong QB2 the rest of the season

The Washington Commanders claim the earliest we could see electric-but-brittle starter Jayden Daniels back on the field is Week 13, though it is important to note that the organization did not place him on the injured list after he dislocated his non-throwing elbow in Week 9. That was a tad surprising. The Commanders have lost five consecutive games and are 3-7 entering this week against the Miami Dolphins. Daniels has missed four games with three separate injuries (knee, hamstring, elbow). Risking further injury in December when the playoffs are unlikely seems unwise.

Mariota is averaging 16.4 fantasy points in his four starts. For perspective, that matches what Jordan Love has done this season and beats Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud. Mariota won only one of those games, but he faced the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions (and the Las Vegas Raiders and Atlanta Falcons). Mariota is competent. The schedule ahead isn’t so tough for fantasy numbers. After the bye, the Commanders face the Denver Broncos in Week 13. But then they get the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles — the Vikings and Eagles are middle of the pack in permitting fantasy points to quarterbacks, and the Giants are the fourth-most lenient — followed by the Dallas Cowboys, the easiest to score against. And the Eagles will likely play backups in the second matchup in Week 18.

I thought Daniels, had he performed in every game, had a good chance to lead the Commanders in rushing yards. He is second at this point to rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who I think we would all agree has been a disappointment compared to overeager draft-day investment. Croskey-Merritt averages 8.1 fantasy points for this season. He hasn’t reached 40 rushing yards since Week 6, nor has he scored a touchdown since Week 5, and he doesn’t catch passes. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has a few touchdowns, but he isn’t playable in fantasy. Watch Mariota lead the team in rushing the rest of the season and, if he can boost his average to 18 fantasy points, that would approach QB1 territory.

Don’t be surprised if … Kyren Williams is the Rams’ star the rest of the season

It’s awesome that Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford seeks four consecutive games of four or more touchdown passes on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. He already has the record (three consecutive four-TD games without a pick), with 20 TD passes against nary an interception the past six games. Stafford boasts amazing wide receivers, and he is up to 25 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in nine games. He has 13 touchdown passes the past three games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. He might not have it so easy against the Seahawks, though, and it seems relevant to point out the Rams do not face any of the top 10 easiest defenses to accrue QB fantasy points against the rest of the season.

The Rams do, however, face some ordinary run defenses in the final two months, and that is awesome for Williams, who, after scoring 26 rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons, scored two rushing touchdowns in his first seven games this season. Fantasy managers were not pleased. He has three rushing scores in the past two games, along with 187 rushing yards. The Seahawks (mainly due to RBs catching passes) and Arizona Cardinals are in the middle of the pack in permitting fantasy points to running backs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Falcons are among the top 10 easiest. Williams and his investors should enjoy the final two months.

Don’t be surprised if … WRs DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown finish strong

I thought about writing about Smith more than a month ago when the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver whom everyone acknowledges is their top option started taking his frustrations to social media. Now unproductive, unhappy veteran Brown is telling fantasy managers to trade him away, which is great except that I don’t see how anyone can acquire market value for someone chosen among the top 10 at his position on draft day. Brown enters this week averaging 11.2 points per game, 40th among wide receivers. You wouldn’t believe the readily available WRs averaging more points (Tre Tucker, Alec Pierce, Ricky Pearsall among them).

Let’s focus on the positive. Smith averages 14.6 points, and that mark is 21.5 points over the past three games. Smith gets open down the field, and QB Jalen Hurts gets him the football. Brown is (usually) awesome, but people forget Smith is a Heisman Trophy winner who went No. 10 in the 2021 draft. He has a strong pedigree, too. Smith has reached 1,000 receiving yards twice in four seasons, but he has often played in Brown’s shadow. That is not the case this season as Brown pouts. Smith ranks 14th among wide receivers in fantasy points, but some of those fellows still have their bye coming. Regardless, I finally ranked Smith over Brown (by one spot) for Week 11 and in the rest-of-season rankings. I should’ve been doing that for more than a month.

ESPN’s trade deadline is Thanksgiving week (that Wednesday at noon ET), and I think it is sensible to trade for both Smith and Brown because the Eagles draw such a favorable schedule for quarterbacks and wide receivers, with the Cowboys, Chicago Bears, Raiders and Commanders (two games) among the easiest teams to secure WR fantasy points against. I doubt the Eagles will play any stars in Week 18, so be wary of that, but I don’t see this disappointing Saquon Barkley season changing much because the offensive line is physically compromised. The Eagles will throw. Or win more games 10-7.

Brown can be better. The Green Bay Packers, playing mostly zone defense, shut him down, but the Lions will go man-to-man for the most part this Sunday night. Brown caught 121 yards worth of passes and two touchdowns in Week 7 at Minnesota because he wanted to prove he could. The targets aren’t there consistently, in part because defenses direct more attention his way. The defenses pending the rest of the way might not be able to do so. Try to convince a trade partner to trade away Brown on the premise this controversial season will not improve. There are no guarantees it will, but between his talent and the schedule, it is worth a shot.