Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 12 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 12, which kicked off Thursday with the Bills at the Texans.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

PIT-CHI | NE-CIN | NYG-DET | MIN-GB | SEA-TEN | IND-KC
NYJ-BAL | CLE-LV | JAX-ARI | PHI-DAL | ATL-NO | TB-LAR | CAR-SF

Projected score: Bears 25, Steelers 21

Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Rome Odunze

Fantasy scoop: Warren departed Sunday’s win after only 18 snaps due to injury, and Kenneth Gainwell took advantage. The 2021 fifth-round pick didn’t do much on the ground (24 yards on nine carries) but posted a 7-81-2 receiving line on seven targets. Gainwell has played 60% or more of the snaps in two games this season (both due to Warren injuries) and he scored 29-plus fantasy points in each outing. Of course, he has failed to score double-digit fantasy points in any other game, so his Week 12 outlook will depend on Warren’s health.

If Warren plays, Gainwell belongs on the bench. If Warren is sidelined, Gainwell will defer some carries to Kaleb Johnson but will be well positioned for 15-plus touches against a Chicago defense that sits midpack in fantasy points allowed to RBs but has allowed 5.0 yards per carry (fourth highest) to the position. In that scenario, Gainwell will be a solid RB2 option.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Pittsburgh’s receivers against a Chicago pass defense that has surrendered the second-most touchdowns (14), fourth-highest yards per target (9.2) and ninth-most fantasy points to receivers. Chicago is actually coming off a solid effort against Minnesota’s receivers but still sits top-10 in points allowed to both the perimeter and slot over the past four weeks.

Metcalf has struggled this season while often dealing with shadow coverage and/or tough matchups, but he has managed three 16-plus-point fantasy outings and he matched a season high with nine targets last week (four from Mason Rudolph). Set for perhaps his easiest matchup of the season to date, Metcalf is in the WR2/3 mix, even with Aaron Rodgers possibly sidelined.

Over/under: 45.5 (10th)
Win probability: Bears 66% (8th)

Projected score: Patriots 32, Bengals 25

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Chase Brown, TreVeyon Henderson, Tee Higgins, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: Henderson is red hot, having followed up Week 10’s 150-yard, two-TD, 28.0-fantasy-point effort with a 93-yard, three-TD, 32.3-point explosion in Week 11. Henderson’s recent surge has, of course, been fueled by Rhamondre Stevenson’s absence, but it’s fair to wonder whether his strong play, which includes 87-plus yards in all three games, will lead to a much larger role moving forward.

If Stevenson remains sidelined, Henderson is a lineup lock. Even if Stevenson returns, both backs are viable RB2 options against a horrific Bengals run defense that has allowed the most rushing yards (185.6 yards per game), scrimmage yards, touchdowns (1.5) and fantasy points (34.1) to running backs. An almost-unbelievable 13 backs have already scored 15-plus fantasy points against them this season.

Shadow Report: With Ja’Marr Chase suspended for this game, expect Higgins to draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez. New England’s top corner shadowed Jerry Jeudy, Drake London and Emeka Egbuka over the past month. Gonzalez held Jeudy without a single catch, did well when aligned on London (London still scored 38.8 points in the game, but nearly all was against other defenders) and wasn’t as good against Egbuka (23.5 fantasy points scored in the game). Unlike London and Egbuka, Higgins doesn’t move into the slot very often (12% to be exact) and thus will see Gonzalez on nearly all of his routes. Higgins figures to see more targets with Chase out, but that may be offset a bit by this matchup.

Over/under: 56.6 (highest)
Win probability: Patriots 75% (5th)

Projected score: Lions 30, Giants 23

Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jameson Williams

Fantasy scoop: With Sam LaPorta on IR, Brock Wright stepped in as the Lions’ featured tight end in Week 11. Wright was more involved than he was when LaPorta missed Week 11 of last season, this time playing 82% of the snaps and handling a career-high seven targets. Wright’s 19.4% target share in the game was actually a hair above LaPorta’s 18.6% share during Weeks 1-10. Wright ran 25 routes, tied for third on the team behind only St. Brown and Williams. Wright was able to turn the seven targets into only 8 yards, but that feels a bit fluky considering Jared Goff struggled with 14 completions on 37 attempts against a good Eagles defense.

We don’t want to get too carried away here, as Wright has produced double-digit fantasy points in just six of 71 career games, but he has also never been asked to play such a substantial offensive role. Wright isn’t a must add, but he’s very much in the TE2 mix in a much better matchup this week. The Giants sit top-12 in passing yards and TDs allowed.

Over/under: 53.4 (3rd)
Win probability: Lions 73% (6th)

Projected score: Packers 27, Vikings 19

Lineup locks: Emanuel Wilson, Justin Jefferson, Romeo Doubs, Jordan Addison

Fantasy scoop: Josh Jacobs (knee) is in doubt for this week’s game and, if he’s sidelined, Wilson should find his way into your starting lineup. With Jacobs (who has yet to miss a game since joining Green Bay) limited to 11 snaps on Sunday, Wilson stepped in and handled 11 carries and one target on 36 snaps (17 routes). Chris Brooks was barely involved off the bench, totaling only one carry on five snaps (zero routes). Brooks was more involved last season — mainly as a pass catcher — but it appears that he’s clearly behind Wilson on the depth chart here in 2025. Wilson, a 2023 UDFA, has played solid ball when called on, averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 185 career attempts, while also adding 174 yards on 36 targets. If Jacobs is out, Wilson is a solid RB2 play.

Over/under: 45.5 (11th)
Win probability: Packers 77% (4th)

Projected score: Seahawks 26, Titans 15

Lineup lock: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Fantasy scoop: Calvin Ridley (fibula) is done for the season, which solidifies Elic Ayomanor, Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson as the Titans’ top receivers moving forward. Ridley had played only seven snaps during Tennessee’s past six games due to injury, with the team’s WR usage as follows: Ayomanor (244 snaps, 30 targets), Jefferson (228 snaps, 28 targets), Dike (174 snaps, 20 targets) and all others combined (97 snaps, 10 targets).

Dike, whose numbers are deflated a bit after he left Sunday’s game injured, paces the group with 9.4 fantasy PPG during the stretch, with Ayomanor (6.1) and Jefferson (7.1) also not particularly productive. Dike did flash with a pair of 16-plus-point games during Weeks 7 and 8, so there’s some hope for him as a deep-league flex, but he’ll be tough to trust in an offense that has scored a horrific 11 touchdowns in 10 games.

Shadow Report: We’ve been picking on the short-handed Titans secondary for a while now and we’re going to do it again here in Week 12. After allowing 24.2 points to Nico Collins on Sunday, Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers this season, including the third-most over expected. Tennessee is allowing the highest catch rate (72%) and third-highest yards per target (9.2) to the position. Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed can be upgraded against Darrell Baker Jr. (who may shadow JSN), Marcus Harris, Jalyn Armour-Davis and Samuel Womack III.

Over/under: 41.2 (12th)
Win probability: Seahawks 85% (highest)

Projected score: Chiefs 28, Colts 27

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Rashee Rice, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Alec Pierce is on pace for a career year and suddenly finds himself on the WR3 radar after posting consecutive 17-plus-point fantasy outings prior to the Colts’ Week 11 bye. Pierce’s early-season production wasn’t overly impressive (under 11 points in four straight games to open the season), but he’s averaging 8.8 targets, 91.5 yards and 14.9 fantasy PPG in four games since. The fifth-year receiver sits 34th among WRs in fantasy PPG, and that number could be even better if he found the end zone more often. Pierce has one TD (2.1 xTD), which is a bit of a regression-to-the-mean overcorrection after he scored seven times (4.2 xTD) in 2024. Pierce paces qualified receivers in yards per reception (20.9) and aDOT (20.1), which is a role that sets him up for big plays.

On the other hand, Colts receivers will have their hands full this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to receivers and only nine passing TDs on the season. Only three receivers have hit 14.5 fantasy points against them, and two were in Week 1. The Colts’ elite offense with four teams on a bye is enough to keep Pierce, Pittman and Josh Downs on the fantasy radar this week, but the bust risk is higher than usual.

Over/under: 54.4 (2nd)
Win probability: Chiefs 54% (10th)

Projected score: Ravens 29, Jets 18

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, Zay Flowers

Fantasy scoop: Tyrod Taylor is set to replace Justin Fields as the Jets’ starting quarterback, and his presence should add a little bit of juice to the passing game. Taylor has played only one full game this season — Week 3 against the Buccaneers — and threw for 197 yards and two TDs on 36 attempts, adding 48 yards on eight carries. The pass attempt number is most notable, as Fields averaged 25.8 attempts in his seven full games and reached 33 only once. With Garrett Wilson on IR, Hall is the only thing close to a lineup lock in this offense, with Mason Taylor a more attractive TE2 play. The Jets shook up their WR room big-time last week (John Metchie III, Isaiah Williams, Tyler Johnson and Adonai Mitchell each played 28-plus snaps). None should be in lineups at the moment.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Baltimore’s receivers against the Sauce Gardner-less Jets pass defense. Secondary receivers had already fared well against New York prior to Gardner’s departure, and now we are starting to see No. 1 receivers perform at a higher level. That includes Jerry Jeudy’s 19.8 points in Week 10 and Stefon Diggs’ 19.5 points last week. Flowers is the primary benefactor, and Rashod Bateman (if back from injury) is a noteworthy deep sleeper.

Over/under: 47.4 (8th)
Win probability: Ravens 85% (2nd)

Projected score: Browns 18, Raiders 15