It’s the unofficial start of NBA trade season.
As of today — Monday, Dec. 15 — 79 players who signed or extended their contracts last summer became eligible to be traded. That means the options have greatly expanded for front offices trying to match salaries and develop trade packages that work for both sides.
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Who are the five players most likely to be on the move before the Feb. 5 trade deadline? Let’s break it down. [Note: This list does not include Giannis Antetokounmpo because there are so many rumors about him that he has his own story.]
Anthony Davis (Mavericks)
It’s no secret that the Mavericks are willing to listen to offers for Davis, something league sources have confirmed to NBC Sports and multiple other outlets have reported.
The more interesting question: How strong is the market for Davis?
This season is the perfect example of why some teams are hesitant to go all in on the 10-time All-Star and NBA champion. When he is on the court this season, Davis has looked like an All-NBA player, averaging 20 points and 10.5 rebounds per game while playing strong defense. The problem is that the 32-year-old has played in just 11 games due to injury. Add to that the fact that Davis, with agent Rich Paul leading the way, are expecting a massive contract extension from any team that trades for him, and a lot of teams are thinking twice about a deal.
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How many teams are willing to take that risk? In an NBA shifting towards deeper rosters of good players around one or two stars, a mid-30s Davis making 30% of the salary cap is a hard sell. Only a few teams might go all in. Keep an eye on Atlanta. If Kristaps Porzingis’ illness keeps him out for an extended time, the Hawks might be willing to bet on Davis as the defensive force in the paint and pick-and-roll partner with Trae Young they hoped KP would be.
Detroit and Toronto are also rumored to be interested. However, the Chicago Bulls reportedly do not want to bring Davis home, seeing him as not a fit with the timeline of their younger stars.
Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)
It’s no secret that Kuminga is available in a trade: The Warriors played hardball this summer and pushed Kuminga into a contract designed to dealt (two years, $46.8 million, with a team option on the second year).
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The Pelicans and Nets are teams rumored to be willing to take a flier on Kuminga, although Steve Kerr pulling him in and out of the lineup this season has not exactly increased his market.
Considering there is also a lot of buzz about the Warriors’ interest in Trey Murphy III — a fantastic two-way wing fit next to Stephen Curry — it’s possible to see the foundation of a trade, but Golden State will have to give up picks and more than just Kuminga. Another potential target for the Warriors: Brooklyn center Nic Claxton, which leads to another set of rumors.
Lauri Markkanen (Jazz)
By all accounts, Markkanen has not been made available for a trade. Remember that Utah locked up Markkanen with a four-year, $195.9 million extension, and he is in just the first year of that massive contract. Also, Markkanen has done nothing but praise Salt Lake City and how much he wants to be there.
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That said, two things keep other teams around the league thinking the Jazz could trade Markkanen after all. One is simply that the 28-year-old Markkanen is not on the same timeline as Utah’s other young stars, such as Keyonte George (22), Walker Kessler (24) and Ace Bailey (19). If Utah can trade Markkanen to get young players or picks, it makes sense.
The other reason is that Markkanen is playing at an All-Star level and helping Utah win games, and the Jazz have a top-eight protected pick otherwise owed to the Thunder. The expectation around the league is that the Jazz will want to actively tank to increase the odds of keeping that pick (currently, the Jazz have the eighth-worst record in the league, and if the NBA draft lottery were held today, they would have a 60.7% chance of keeping that pick).
Utah is a team to keep an eye on.
Keon Ellis (Kings)
While the big names in Sacramento — Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan — have drawn the trade headlines, the player on the roster most likely to be traded is defensive-minded guard Keon Ellis. Sam Amick summed this up well at The Athletic.
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Beyond Sacramento’s core, fourth-year guard Keon Ellis remains the most talked-about trade target among rival teams. Never mind that his league-wide value doesn’t reconcile with the way he’s used by Kings coach Doug Christie (he has played 20-plus minutes just once in the past 11 games and had a DNP-Coaches’ Decision in that span).
The real question, however, is whether the Kings’ price point for moving him will be so steep that it makes a deal hard to reach. It remains possible that Ellis and the Kings find a win-win proposition on the extension front (he’s eligible as of Feb. 9).
One team to watch in the chase for Ellis: The Lakers (more on that below).
It’s worth noting that among the stars in Sacramento, Sabonis is the most likely to be traded, with the Wizards, Bulls, and Suns all expressing some level of interest. While the Bucks reportedly have shown interest in Zach LaVine, she makes $47.4 million this season —with a player option for $48.9 million next season — and that makes finding any trade nearly impossible. Plus, to get off LaVine’s salary, the Kings would likely have to throw in a first-round pick and Sacramento GM Scott Perry is not looking to give up picks.
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Gabe Vincent (Lakers)
The Lakers are a quality team, and with the trio of Luka Dončić, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves, they are a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs.
Yet, their point-of-attack defense is holding them back. It’s not a secret, coach J.J. Redick has talked about it. Which is why the Lakers are in the market for Ellis, a 3&D wing in the mold that they are seeking.
Whatever trade the Lakers might make at the deadline, Gabe Vincent — a solid, veteran guard — is likely the guy headed out the door (or, at least part of the package). The Lakers need to do something, which is why Vincent might want to have a go-bag ready by the door.
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Honorable mention names to watch: Daniel Gafford (Mavericks), Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III (Pelicans), Nic Claxton (Nets), Anfernee Simons (Celtics), Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), and CJ McCollum (Wizards).
Other trade notes
Knicks looking to add ball handler
While the Knicks are most often linked with Giannis Antetokounmpo in trade rumors, that is not the only guy on their board. Then there is this note from the tied-in James Edwards of The Athletic.
Rockets not interested in Morant
The Houston Rockets are a team committed to their young core as the future (except maybe for Antetokounmpo). While they made one big win-now addition in acquiring Kevin Durant, they are not expected to make another short-term move.
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Which is why Houston has no interest in trading for Ja Morant, The Athletic reports. The speculation was that Houston was looking for a replacement for the injured Fred VanVleet, but the Rockets are 16–6 with a top-five offense and defense so far this season. Why would they break that up?