Greetings, DFS fans! Hopefully, this article finds everyone recovering nicely from the Holiday indulgences and ready to consume more football. Something about holiday football just feels…American.
The current week of NFL DFS is always my favorite week. The slate is clean, and we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes as we do in managed seasonal leagues. It is all about honing in on value plays and which ones to slot in our DFS lineups.
This article aims to decipher values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Between the games on Thursday and Saturday, we are left with a nine-game main slate, so a little skinnier than we have become accustomed to. Let’s dive right in.
NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 17
Quarterbacks
Tyler Shough (QB – NO) @ TEN | $5,200 (DraftKings)
Over his last four games, Shough is completing 66% of his passes. During that stretch, he has finished as a QB2 twice and a QB1 twice, while posting at least 17 standard points. Not slate-breaking, but certainly servicable with the correct lineup around him. Having re-watched several games, the growth has been visible, and he is catching up to NFL speed and reading defensive fronts. Over that four-game stretch, Shough has four passing scores, two interceptions, and two rushing scores.
That brings us to the matchup as the Saints travel to Tennessee. Since week 12, the Titans have allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game, except last week against Chris Oladokun. Granted, neither team has anything to play for, except two rookie quarterbacks gaining reps.
Shough is far from a home run hitter, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility for him to perform above his average in this contest. He is best suited to multiple lineup GPP contests where players can add/subtract some variance.
Geno Smith (QB – LV) vs. NYG | $6,500 (FanDuel)
Smith spent several weeks in this value series during the 2024 season. This season has been an entirely different story. While his play has not been up to the caliber we witnessed over his last couple of seasons as the starter in Seattle, he has still finished as QB2 or better in nine games this season. He is averaging 67.1% completion, but has been below his recent averages on both touchdowns (18) and TD to INT ratio (18/15). He is QB35 in fantasy points per game. While none of this is exciting, there are some positives to look at, other than a low ownership percentage.
The Giants have been a bumbling defense, at best, recently. They surrender the third-most fantasy points to the position. They have allowed seven quarterbacks to throw for two or more touchdowns this season. It is also worth mentioning that studies have shown that teams traveling across two or more time zones typically perform worse than traveling within their own time zone or the next adjacent one. There is a noted trend that traveling from east to west is more disadvantageous than traveling the other way around.
It is a good matchup, and we have seen Smith show remnants of the consistent producer we have become accustomed to. Smith can be used in cash games, but with the absence of Bowers, it does affect his potential ceiling. Therefore, he is better suited to GPP contests, again for multiple lineup contests.
Running Backs
Michael Carter (RB – ARI) @ CIN | $5,200 | DraftKings
This backfield can and has been frustrating for fantasy purposes. Carter has solidified the volume role, but Emari Demercado will stay in the mix. The glaring hijinx is that last week, neither of them saw a goal line look. Both of those went to Corey Kiner (who?), who notched his eighth rushing attempt of the season on that last carry. He may not be much of a factor; it just seemed strange to put someone with two carries all season long into high-value touches. But, I digress.
Over his last two games, Carter has 25 carries and six targets. If that trend continues, he should fall into 15 touches against the worst run defense (that term should be used lightly) in the league. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to the position. They surrender an average of 128.3 rushing yards, 0.9 rushing touchdowns, and 44.9 receiving yards to opposing backs.
Carter slots in as an RB2/Flex play with some upside given his recent uptick in volume and the matchup. He is usable in both formats this week.
Dylan Sampson (RB – CLE) vs. PIT | $5,800 (FanDuel)
There is some inherent risk with this play, so be sure to check inactives prior to kickoff. Sampson missed last week with a hand injury. However, he logged limited practices all week as opposed to missing all week last week. That is a positive for his availability, with Quinshon Judkins out due to injury (a moment of silence, please), which would put Sampson as the volume play in this backfield. Sadly, we have to go all the way back to week one to see how he fared with volume. He rushed 12 times for 29 yards, that is 2.4 yards per carry for those doing the math at home, but made his day through the air. He caught all eight targets for 64 yards.
That brings us to the matchup, and it is not the best one on the slate. The Steelers are the eighth-toughest run defense through most of the season. However, since week 12, they have allowed the 13th-most rushing yards per contest and have been surrendering some big plays.
The matchup is not great, and Sampson is still a questionable play this week. If he suits up, he is a volume-based flex play with scoring upside. Consider him another play this week that is best suited to multiple lineup GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) @ IND | $5,200 (DraftKings)
After a stellar rookie campaign, Thomas has been an intermittent fantasy viable player. Over the course of the season, he has had three WR2 or better performances and has only scored three times. This may not be adding up, but allow a little more explanation to drive this one home.
Thomas has played more on the outside since returning from injury. He has 50 or more receiving yards in five of 12 games, two of which were over his last four. During the four games since his return, Thomas is operating with a 14.1% target share.
The Colts allow the third-most fantasy points to receivers, and by all appearances, they are worse than that to perimeter receivers.
Since Week 12, Indy has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
–Derek Brown
A solid pivot would be teammate Jakobi Meyers, who is only $100 more expensive. For those with the intestinal fortitude, Thomas Jr. is a GPP play this week that, by positive regression, is due for a score to go along with his light resurgence.
Rashid Shaheed (WR – SEA) @ CAR | $5,500 (FanDuel)
Shaheed is this Matrix’s iteration of DeSean Jackson. When he hits, he hits big. Otherwise, it is either a decent to pedestrian performance or worse, a goose egg. Last week was just such a week. He failed to haul in his only target; the only saving grace was a 31-yard rush. The prior week, he was 5/7 for 74 yards. The week before that, 4/5 for 67 yards. Shaheed can operate as a game-breaker if one of those deeper targets hits. Since week nine (when he was traded to the Seahawks), Shaheed has had four games of WR3 production or better.
The Panthers are the 12th-ranked defense against wide receivers. One can only assume they are going to put as much of their focus as they can on Jaxson Smith-Njigba, potentially allowing Shaheed to find a crease and get open.
For DFS rosters that are looking for a bit of variance and upside, Shaheed is in a good spot to deliver. He can make his day on one catch; we have all seen him do it. Shaheed is not a cash game option, but a high-risk play for GPP contests for this slate.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller (TE – MIA) vs. TB |$3,800 (DraftKings)
Last week was a disappointment for Waller enthusiasts, reeling in 3/5 for 40 scoreless yards. Since the benching of Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have approached a more run-heavy scheme in an effort to slow down rookie Quinn Ewers‘ ability to throw to the other team. Still, Waller operated with a 16.7% target share. He will remain in the mix for this offense, just maybe not to the same degree to which we had grown accustomed.
The Buccaneers allow the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season. Over the last several weeks, they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy production to the position. This one comes down to how tight the Dolphins want to keep Ewers’ leash.
At his current salary, there is enough upside to use Waller in both cash and GPP contests.
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO) @ TEN | $5,200 (FanDuel)
Johnson feels like one of the stronger plays on this slate at the TE position when salary is factored in. He has had five or more targets in eight games this season. While he may not occupy the first-read as much as Chris Olave, he finds a way to make himself available across the middle. He is TE7 in yards-after-catch this season, among qualified tight ends. He is TE12 in big plays and TE22 in red zone targets. His usage in high-value situations has become a staple of the sixth-year pro, who has already posted career-highs in most categories.
The Titans are a neutral opponent for the position, ranking as the 16th-most fantasy points allowed. Since Week 13, they have allowed four touchdowns to tight ends.
Johnson is a stackable option for those who have decided to try a lineup with Shough leading the charge. He can be run out solo for the right roster build. He is usable (solo) in cash games and stacked in GPP contests.
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.