With the fresh fantasy baseball season approaching, it’s time to get you some tiered rankings from my Shuffle Up series. Use these for salary cap drafts, straight drafts, keeper decisions or merely a view of how the position ebbs and flows. The infield started last week and wrapped on Monday; now, we head to the outfield. The pitchers will follow later this week.
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(Shohei Ohtani — batter version — and Marcell Ozuna only qualify at the utility spot; I have included them in the outfield.)
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The numbers are unscientific in nature and meant to reflect where talent clusters and drops off. Assume a 5×5 scoring system, as usual, and away we go.
More Tiered Rankings
The Big Tickets
You’re welcome to break the Judge/Ohtani tie any way you like. They’ll obviously go 1-2 in some order in most leagues. Judge is three years older, but Ohtani also carries the strain of his side pitching assignments. Both players are supported by deep lineups behind them. Ohtani’s 59 steals from two years ago proved to be an outlier; he did it for fun once, but probably now recognizes it doesn’t make sense to run that aggressively in the regular season. More than any other club in baseball, the Dodgers start each year with October health in mind.
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Announcer Keith Hernandez has said for years that any ballplayer could probably steal 15 bases or so if he merely put in the effort. Soto took it a step further, leading the National League with 38 swipes in 42 attempts, after seven full seasons of station-to-station baseball. Even if Soto’s steals take a reasonable step back, he’s a multi-category monster entering his age-27 season. The timing could be right for his first MVP year.
Schwarber is utility-only in some formats, outfield-eligible in others. All I know is, he’s a screaming value in Round 2. The power is elite, the run production is excellent and he hasn’t been a major batting average drain for two years. He could be a zero in the steals column, but he can steal 10 if he wants (last year, he wanted to). The leadoff spot maximizes the volume. I will make sure I have some Schwarber shares this summer.
Fantasy baseball sages Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf will remind us that it’s somewhat risky to pay up for a fantasy baseball pick who’s starting a big contract and on a new team. It’s also been frustrating to see Tucker navigate injuries the last two years. On the plus side, Tucker is still just 29 and he’s now insulated by the Los Angeles lineup, one of the deepest in baseball. And given the star power in L.A. and the reasonable expectation that the Dodgers are already in the playoffs, it’s not like Tucker arrives in camp with absurd pressure on his shoulders. He’ll be a first-round pick in some leagues and an early-second-round pick in others.
Legitimate Building Blocks
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Crow-Armstrong is one of the most difficult ranks this spring. He was a legitimate MVP candidate before the break (25 homers, 27 steals, .847 OPS) and a mediocre ballplayer after it (six homers, eight steals, .634 OPS). Lefties knocked the bat out of his hand all year (.188/.217/.376). Of course, his angelic defense will hold his spot in the lineup, deservedly so. PCA’s category juice forces me to keep the salary in the high 20s, but we’ll see if I have the nerve to click on his name when the picks count in March.
My friend Joe Sheehan was explaining in his newsletter why he was going under the Houston win total this year. In part: “A full season of Yordan Alvarez will only do so much, and I’m not sure that you can ever project a full season of Yordan Alvarez.” Bingo. Another case where it’s not fun to play fantasy baseball like an actuary, but it’s almost always the prudent angle. Alvarez has the bat and zone judgement of a god, but the knees of Fred G. Sanford.
For a long time, it felt like the Bellinger career arc would never make sense, but he’s started to stabilize the last three years (average slash of .281/.338/.477, good pop, resourceful running). He was wise to re-sign in New York, a stadium where he had a .909 OPS and 18 homers last year. Welcome to the Ibañez All-Star days, where Bellinger now sits as a boring-value veteran.
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Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
Can we just fast-forward to the days where Trout is a DH for a contending team? It’s frustrating to watch him toil for the hopeless Angels, and you wonder how much patrolling the outfield affects his durability. Trout did make it through 130 games last year — his most since 2019 — and although a .232/.359/.439 slash is under code for him, it’s a respectable 121 OPS+ when compared to league context. Pay for about 110 games this year, and be mindful that he shut down the running game several years back.
Burleson won a Silver Slugger Award last year? Oh, right, the utility slot. He’ll probably be parked at first base this year but still qualifies in the outfield. Last year’s improvement against lefties was the biggest boost to a career year, and you like drafting players on his career arc (this is the age-27 season). The Cardinals are no longer an exciting destination offense, which might give you Burleson at a mild discount.
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Kwan’s style of play is a throwback, where he’s merely looking to make contact and not concerned with how loud that contact is. Consider his Baseball Savant sliders, where his contact stats are all dreamy but his hard-hit metrics barely register. Nonetheless, he’ll find his way to 10-14 homers a year, he still runs proactively and you can count on a plus average. Diversity of style is a good thing in sports — too often it feels like everyone wants to use the same strategy — and I salute Kwan’s willingness to swim against the tide.
Some Plausible Upside
Laureano was probably the most underrated outfielder in fantasy baseball last year — he was the No. 29 outfielder in 5×5 value — and I initially had him as a double-digit value. I’m a little concerned the Nick Castellanos signing could create a logjam in the San Diego outfield, and ultimately, I decided to be prudent with Laureano’s ranking, mindful that he’s in his 30s and has never logged 500 at-bats in a season. Still, he’s an above-average hitter, and hopefully the Padres will give him some leash.
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Sánchez was a smart addition for Toronto, though he’ll open the season in a platoon (on the heavy side). This is a knockout blow for those in smaller leagues, but acceptable if you’re in medium and deeper groups. Sánchez might not run much on the red-light Blue Jays, but he can hit for a reasonable average and knock 15-18 homers.
Scott didn’t hit at all last year and still stole 34 bases; imagine what’s possible if he shows any improvement at the plate. His zone judgment is fine and although the hard-hit sliders are all on the low side, that’s not always a problem for a speed merchant. Scott enters his age-25 season, so go-time is now. The rebuilding Cardinals figure to leave him alone and grow at his own pace. Your late picks are all about upside, and Scott can legitimately check that box.