Pool play is over and we are now into the single-elimination phase of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Team USA, which backed into the second round when Italy beat Mexico, will take on Canada at Daikin Park in Houston on Friday night. The winner will advance to the semifinals in Miami and play the winner of Friday evening’s Dominican Republic vs. Korea game.
“New lease on life for the boys, certainly. I put ourselves in a tough spot,” USA manager Mark DeRosa said Thursday. “… (Canada is a) scrappy bunch, bottom line, and they’re swinging the bats.”
Canada beat Cuba in a win-or-go-home game Thursday to reach the quarterfinals. This is the first time Canada has advanced out of pool play, so it is fair to call Friday’s game against USA the biggest game in Canadian baseball history. They are major underdogs, though. Canada went 3-1 in pool play to improve its all-time WBC record to 8-11.
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“We’re going to go out and we’re going to play the game the way we play it,” Canada manager Ernie Whitt said Thursday. “We talk about playing clean. I mean, in international baseball, if you make mistakes, it’s going to cost you. And so we just try to play a clean game and play it the way that we play it with passion and pride, and play it until the end.”
Here is how you can watch Friday’s Canada vs. USA game, and what you need to know going into the Olympic hockey gold medal game rematch.
Canada vs. USA: Where to watch, odds
- Time: 8 p.m. ET | Date: Friday, March 13
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston
- TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Starting pitchers: RHP Logan Webb (USA) vs. RHP Michael Soroka (CAN)
- Odds (via FanDuel): USA -4.5 (-132), O/U: 9.5
Canada has beaten USA before
Way back in 2006, in the inaugural WBC, former Orioles lefty Adam Loewen held a USA lineup led by Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr., Derek Jeter, and Chipper Jones scoreless for 3 ⅔ innings while Jason Bay, Justin Morneau and Co. tagged Dontrelle Willis for five runs in 2 ⅔ innings. Canada went on to win the game 8-6.
Since then, it has been all USA. The Americans beat Canada in the 2009, 2013, 2017, and 2023 WBCs by a combined score of 35-10.
USA reconfigured its roster
Teams are allowed to add and subtract players from the roster after each round and USA used the opportunity to drop a few starters and multi-inning relievers and add more high-leverage bullpen options.
Skubal considered remaining with USA and making another start, though he ultimately stuck with his initial plan and has since returned to the Tigers to continue spring training. He would have been eligible to pitch Friday’s game, though it’s more likely Webb would have started with Skubal pitching in a potential semifinals game Sunday.
Canada did not announce any roster additions/subtractions before Friday’s game. They’re sticking with the same 30 players who got them through Pool A in San Juan.
The pitch limits have increased
During pool play, pitchers are limited to 65 pitches, so every game is essentially a bullpen game. Only six of the 80 starting pitchers in pool play managed to complete five innings. In the quarterfinals, the pitch limit rises to 80 pitches, which is a pretty big number at this point in March. The two starters can pitch reasonably deep into Friday’s game. That said, it’s an elimination game, so if Webb and/or Soroka are not effective, the hook figures to be quick.
Paxton is eligible to pitch
Veteran lefty James Paxton came out of retirement to pitch for Canada and he turned in a WBC-saving relief appearance against Cuba on Wednesday. Paxton, 37, struck out six batters in 2 ⅔ shutout innings, allowing just a single and a walk.
Statcast clocked his fastball as high as 97.1 mph. It was a vintage Big Maple appearance.
Paxton was removed from Thursday’s game with an 0-2 count and two outs in the bottom of the ninth. Why? Because he’d thrown 49 pitches, and if he’d thrown pitch No. 50, it would have triggered a mandatory four days of rest, per WBC rules. For 30-49 pitches, only one day of rest is required. Paxton is eligible to pitch on Friday and could again be asked to get high-leverage outs.
“I think the biggest thing is that he wanted to do it. He wanted to come and come out of retirement, get off the couch, and come and throw for Team Canada because he’s never done that before,” Whitt said about Paxton following the win over Cuba. “He’s experienced league championships and played at the highest level in Major League Baseball, but he never represented the country. I think that was the biggest thing for him.”
Prediction: USA bounces back
USA should — should — win Friday’s game handily, given the talent gap, but we’ve already seen this team drop the ball once and snooze for extended periods of time. I think the Italy debacle earlier this week will serve as a wake-up call, though, and USA will come out focused and with the pedal to the floor against Canada. Prediction: USA 7, Canada 2.