Thanks to the World Baseball Classic occupying our time for a few weeks and a very early Opening Day, the imminent start of the 2026 MLB season came at me faster than most. I’m supposed to still be in “preview” mode during spring training, yet I’m building power rankings already.
That’s fun, though. Let’s talk about who can win the World Series.
I have to start with the two-time defending champion Dodgers. They have the shortest odds to win the World Series and since they signed Kyle Tucker to a four-year, $240 million deal, we have to endure another round of “holy cow, no fair, no one else even has a chance to win the World Series!” nonsense.
The Dodgers are, of course, the most likely team to win the World Series, but that doesn’t mean they are likely. It might sound as funny as when I say first base is the easiest defensive position, but it’s not easy. We’re all smart enough to grasp the concept, right? The Dodgers have the best chances to win the World Series, but it’s a 26.9% chance per FanGraphs odds. Even if you think that’s too low and it’s like 35% (it’s way lower than that, but I’m trying to humor some people), that means there’s a 65% chance they don’t win it all.
See? Get outta here with any sure thing. So much has to break right.
There’s a reason we’ve only seen one three-peat since the 1970s and why only two franchises have ever pulled it off.
Who else could win it all? Ideally, you’d love to head into a season in which all 30 teams truly had a chance, but I feel pretty good in saying at least a handful simply cannot. Here are my subjective tiers of World Series contenders.
The favorite
The Dodgers. Enough said.
Strong contenders
I could probably expand this one a little, but I feel like this is the firm second tier.
Yankees, Blue Jays, Mariners, Cubs
Need a few breaks
These teams are either slightly more flawed or have a few more questions than the teams above. Just a few. Things could certainly break right and it wouldn’t shock me in the least.
Tigers, Mets, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Astros, Red Sox
Maybe if everything breaks right
Think 2023 Rangers for this one. I still remember in spring training saying to another writer, “I don’t think they will even make the playoffs, but I could totally see the Rangers winning the World Series.” That’s this group, for the most part, even if a few need to make the playoffs, logistically.
Royals, Guardians, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Pirates, Reds, Marlins, Athletics, Rangers, Orioles, Rays
Maybe next year… or the year after
No chance. Not in 2026.
Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals, Angels, Twins, White Sox
Biggest Movers
|
Rk |
Teams |
Chg |
Rcrd |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
|
I will admit this: I think the chances of them winning the NL West are just about 100%. | — | 0-0 |
2 |
|
This is actually a very good offense, despite the home park suppressing their numbers. There’s a good rotation and a great closer, too. | 5 | 0-0 |
3 |
|
They can absorb the loss of Bo Bichette and the pitching is deep enough to let Shane Bieber and Trey Yesavage build themselves back, but it’ll certainly test them. | — | 0-0 |
4 |
|
Gerrit Cole’s throwing hard and on the comeback trail. | 1 | 0-0 |
5 |
|
There’s a lot more roster depth and well-roundedness than star power here, but that kind of balance is a major asset. | 1 | 0-0 |
6 |
|
Kudos to the Tigers for holding Tarik Skubal and also signing Framber Valdez. Who cares if you’re gonna lose an ace after the season? Try to win it all now instead of trading him for prospects for later. | 5 | 0-0 |
7 |
|
They added a lot of good pieces over the winter; it’s now a question of how it all meshes together, notably with a few position changes in the infield. | 2 | 0-0 |
8 |
|
I was ready to be very strong on the Braves and I do believe the offense is going to be stout, but that rotation is just not sturdy at all. | 2 | 0-0 |
9 |
|
There are lots of concerns with this ballclub and still lots of talent. Can Zack Wheeler come back quickly and be just as good? Will Aaron Nola bounce back (he looked good in WBC)? There’s still a path to being awesome again. | 1 | 0-0 |
10 |
|
I like the rotation fine, but I’m not going crazy over it or anything. I will, however, go crazy about my AL Cy Young pick, Garrett Crochet. Are 300 strikeouts within reach? | 2 | 0-0 |
11 |
|
Can they replicate last season’s magic? I find myself saying no to that question the closer we get to the season. | 9 | 0-0 |
12 |
|
Last year was the first time since 2016 that MLB had an Astros-less playoffs. They were alive heading into the final day of the season. | — | 0-0 |
13 |
|
I’m a fan of this Royals team. Good offensive potential, possibly great rotation and quality bullpen. They could actually sweep the awards with Bobby Witt Jr. (MVP), Cole Ragans (Cy Young), Carter Jensen (Rookie of the Year) and Matt Quatraro (Manager of the Year). | 1 | 0-0 |
14 |
|
The offense is going to bounce back and I actually sneakily love the rotation now with Kyle Bradish back and Trevor Rogers seemingly having figured something out. | 3 | 0-0 |
15 |
|
One of the most fun offenses in baseball. Do they have enough in the rotation? | 6 | 0-0 |
16 |
|
I usually pick the Padres to make the postseason, but this roster is just so top-heavy. | 3 | 0-0 |
17 |
|
They might end up with the best rotation in baseball. Will that be enough? | 1 | 0-0 |
18 |
|
The Giants haven’t had three players reach 30 home runs in the same season since 1966 (Jim Ray Hart, Willie Mays, Willie McCovey). Could Willy Adames, Rafael Devers and Matt Chapman get there? They now have Luis Arraez setting the table for them. | 1 | 0-0 |
19 |
|
Shane McClanahan hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023, but he’s shown encouraging results so far in the spring. | 3 | 0-0 |
20 |
|
I’m just not seeing a miracle run this time around. There isn’t enough talent. Famous last words? Maybe. This team has proven me wrong plenty of times. | 5 | 0-0 |
21 |
|
I’d like them a lot better with Corbin Burnes, but hey, they get to start their lineup with three players capable of making an MVP run. | 1 | 0-0 |
22 |
|
The loss of Hunter Greene for a few months is devastating. I liked the Reds’ potential for another playoff trip. | 4 | 0-0 |
23 |
|
There’s a lot of Pirates love out there. They are better and I certainly think a playoff run is possible. I just don’t think it’s very likely. An injury-prone Brandon Lowe, washed-up Marcell Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn don’t move the needle a ton for me. | 1 | 0-0 |
24 |
|
The Marlins were 54-42 after June 11 last season. Hmmm … | 1 | 0-0 |
25 |
|
There’s a decent chance the Cardinals are the best last-place team, but I doubt that’s worth much to their fans. The Cardinals have only finished in last twice since 1918. | — | 0-0 |
26 |
|
Between Zach Neto, the raw power of Jo Adell and Jorge Soler and, obviously, Mike Trout, the Angels have the most exciting players among the really bad teams. | 1 | 0-0 |
27 |
|
I’m lower on them than most. I think there’s potential for a pitiful season here. | 1 | 0-0 |
28 |
|
I love saying this because it’s so true, but baby steps are steps. The White Sox got demonstrably better last season and it’s possible they will again this season. | — | 0-0 |
29 |
|
It’ll get worse before it gets better. There’s a decent chance they end up the worst team this season. | — | 0-0 |
30 |
|
Their win total (commonly known as “over/under”) is 54.5. Gimme the over! | — | 0-0 |