Spurs vs. Thunder prediction, odds: 2026 NBA Western Conference finals picks for Game 1

The 2026 NBA Western Conference finals get underway when the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs battle the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night. San Antonio is coming off a 139-109 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday to win their semifinal series 4-2, while Oklahoma City downed the Los Angeles Lakers 115-110 on May 11 to sweep their series. The Spurs (62-20), who won the Southwest Division, are looking to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2013-14. The Thunder (64-18), who won the Northwest Division, are looking to win back-to-back NBA championships. De’Aaron Fox (ankle) is questionable for San Antonio.

Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs lead the all-time postseason series 19-15, and won the regular-season series 4-1. The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Spurs vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 219.5. Before making any Spurs vs. Thunder picks, check out the Spurs vs. Thunder predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Spurs:

Top Spurs vs. Thunder predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Spurs vs. Thunder, SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (219.5). The Under has hit in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, including three of five meetings this season. The Under has also hit in 51 of the last 94 Spurs games with one push when the line is over 205. The Under has hit 25 out of 48 San Antonio road games with one push when the Spurs face teams allowing 102 or more points.

The SportsLine model is projecting just three Spurs players to score 13 points or more, led by Victor Wembanyama’s 24.7 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to lead the Thunder with 29.7 points scored, but just three Oklahoma City players are forecast to score 16 points or more. The teams are projected to combine for 213 total points as the Under hits in 60% of simulations, making it a great selection for anybody targeting NBA parlay betting. See the Spurs vs. Thunder spread pick at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under in Thunder vs. Spurs at FanDuel here:

How to make Spurs vs. Thunder picks

After simulating each possession of Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Spurs vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.