U.S. Open Long Shot Predictions & Sleeper Picks: Dark Horse Picks to Win

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The incredibly difficult playing conditions of the U.S. Open make the event one of the best in golf for betting on long shots. Two of the past three winners of the third major have had pre-tournament U.S. Open odds of +10000 or longer.

Advertisement

While I’m not going quite that far down the 2026 oddsboard with my U.S. Open long-shot predictions, I’ve identified three sleeper picks worth backing for the outright win at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.

Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, and Si Woo Kim are all being undervalued by our best golf betting sites, so I’m keen to add them to my golf picks for the U.S. Open.

🎯 Best U.S. Open long shots 2026

💤 U.S. Open sleeper picks

Best long-shot bet: Patrick Reed +4000

Patrick Reed began his first year away from LIV Golf with victories in two of his first four events of 2026. He was a co-runner-up in a third event in that run. He’s been doing it with an elite short game and ball strikine that makes him the perfect fit for this highly difficult venue.

Advertisement

Though he hasn’t been playing as often lately, he finished T12 in the Masters and T10 in the PGA Championship. He relied heavily on an exceptional short game and ball-striking in those tournaments. His 0.81 strokes gained: around-the-green ranks fourth in this field across everyone’s last 16 rounds.

Reed also finished fourth in the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills at +4. He gained 1.53 strokes per round on approach for the tournament, according to DataGolf. I would bet on Reed to win the U.S. Open all the way down to +2500, as that price is closer to the caliber of player he is in 2026. I consider him a top-10 golfer in this field, and his major results this season back that up. Yet, he’s 16th on the oddsboard at BetMGM.

Covers golf betting tools

Sleeper pick 2: Patrick Cantlay +4500

Patrick Cantlay didn’t have much success at Shinnecock Hills eight years ago. He finished T45 and lost strokes on the greens. His putting has been better this season (0.09 SG: putting across his last 16 rounds), and he has a 3-putt percentage of just 2.53%. More importantly, he’s ninth on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance in 2026.

Advertisement

Cantlay’s best metric is his 0.94 SG: approach per round. That improving part of his game has helped him turn the corner on a poor start to 2026. He’s finished T17 or better in five of his past six events after missing the cut in two of his five starts.

I’m not quite as high on Cantlay as my other two U.S. Open sleeper picks, but I’d bet him down to +4000 with confidence.

Sleeper pick 3: Si Woo Kim +4500

Si Woo Kim has surged to No. 18 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) amid the best season of his professional career. He has two runner-up finishes, two third-place showings, and four other top-10s through 16 events played. Those include a runner-up in The CJ Cup Byron Nelson and a T10 in the Memorial.

Advertisement

Though Kim struggled in the year’s first two majors, his current form makes him an excellent course fit for Shinnecock Hills and the U.S. Open conditions. He has gained a total of 0.90 strokes per round on and around the greens over his last 16 rounds, and he’s been one of this field’s most accurate drivers of the golf ball over that span. That accuracy off the tee and the short-game prowess have Kim ranked fourth in bogey avoidance this season.

COVERS INTEL:

Si Woo Kim has gained 1.20 strokes per round with his putter across his last eight rounds.

I’ve bet on Kim a lot this season, but I’m not ready to quit. I love the value of the +4500 odds to win and would bet this down to +3500, while also looking to bet on him in the top 5 market. I consider him to be safely in the top 15 contenders based on course fit and current form. I’d expect his odds to shorten by Thursday morning.

Advertisement

🔍 What I’m looking for in U.S. Open long shots

I’m keeping the odds for my 2026 U.S. Open long-shot picks a little shorter due to the immense difficulty of Shinnecock Hills Golf Club. This is, arguably, my favorite U.S. Open venue. I remember Retief Goosen’s victory at -4 in 2004 and Brooks Koepka’s win in 2018 with a 72-hole score of +1.

Both golfers were inside the top 10 of the OWGR at the time of those victories, and they were each priced at +3000 or shorter ahead of Round 1.

Though I’m going outside of the top 10 of the OWGR with my above picks, I consider there to be value in the golf odds. All three players are in form, avoid trouble, and excel in the short game.

Advertisement

Key stats

• Strokes gained: around-the-green

📜 Recent U.S. Open long-shot winners

• 2025: J.J. Spaun (+150000)

• 2023: Wyndham Clark (+10000)

• 2019: Gary Woodland (+6000)

• 2012: Webb Simpson (+5000)

Odds via Sports Odds History prior to Round 1 of the tournament year.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.