MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (7/4)

Happy Fourth of July! Most people spend the holidays celebrating with family rather than researching MLB DFS, giving you a chance to gain an edge if you put in the work.

Start that research by reading the tips and tricks of today’s DFS slates below. DraftKings’ main slate begins at 7:10 p.m. ET, and includes 11 games. FanDuel has the same 11 games listed on its main slate.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/4)

• Hunter Greene makes his 2026 major league debut today. If you drop the 2025 qualification to 100 innings, he finished sixth in baseball with a 25.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate. In 14 minor league innings during his rehab assignments, he struck out 13 batters without allowing a single earned run. Greene threw 82 pitches in his most recent rehab start, so Cincinnati shouldn’t place many restrictions on him today.
• Sonny Gray can be a confounding pitcher to predict from game to game, but he generally finds a way to be useful in DFS. His most recent start featured nine strikeouts over 7.1 shutout innings against the Yankees. It was his sixth start in his last nine starts with at least 25 points on DraftKings.
• If you’re looking to save on salary, Sean Burke stands out as today’s top-value pitcher. Burke has put together an impressive stretch. Over his last three starts, he has 22 strikeouts to only five walks in 18 innings. Those three games came against the Yankees, Guardians and Orioles. His matchup today is against the Guardians again. When he last faced them, he pitched 6.1 innings, struck out six and allowed just a single earned run.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (7/4)

Happy Fourth of July! Most people spend the holidays celebrating with family rather than researching MLB DFS, giving you a chance to gain an edge if you put in the work.

Start that research by reading the tips and tricks of today’s DFS slates below. DraftKings’ main slate begins at 7:10 p.m. ET, and includes 11 games. FanDuel has the same 11 games listed on its main slate.

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (7/4)

• Hunter Greene makes his 2026 major league debut today. If you drop the 2025 qualification to 100 innings, he finished sixth in baseball with a 25.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate. In 14 minor league innings during his rehab assignments, he struck out 13 batters without allowing a single earned run. Greene threw 82 pitches in his most recent rehab start, so Cincinnati shouldn’t place many restrictions on him today.
• Sonny Gray can be a confounding pitcher to predict from game to game, but he generally finds a way to be useful in DFS. His most recent start featured nine strikeouts over 7.1 shutout innings against the Yankees. It was his sixth start in his last nine starts with at least 25 points on DraftKings.
• If you’re looking to save on salary, Sean Burke stands out as today’s top-value pitcher. Burke has put together an impressive stretch. Over his last three starts, he has 22 strikeouts to only five walks in 18 innings. Those three games came against the Yankees, Guardians and Orioles. His matchup today is against the Guardians again. When he last faced them, he pitched 6.1 innings, struck out six and allowed just a single earned run.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Lineup (7/4)

• The Dodgers draw Griffin Canning today. Canning owns a 7.09 ERA, though his 62.5% strand rate has inflated that number. That doesn’t mean he has pitched well, though. Canning has a 48.9% hard-hit rate, which is in the bottom 10th percentile among pitchers. His expected ERA is still a poor 5.04, and his FIP is 5.28.
• You’ll have to pay up for Dodgers hitters on either DFS platform. Shohei Ohtani is fifth in baseball in OPS against right-handed pitchers at .983. He’s coming off a remarkable June in which he posted a 1.091 OPS.
• For the first time since joining the Dodgers, Max Muncy has received regular opportunities against left-handed pitching this season. He’s more than held his own in those matchups with a .953 OPS, but continues to do plenty of damage against right-handed pitching with 23 extra-base hits and 12 home runs.
• Tommy Edman returned in mid-June after an ankle injury sidelined him. He’s been on a tear since returning. While he has only one home run, he has three extra-base hits. That’s led to a 1.017 OPS, which will inevitably regress.

Milwaukee Brewers Projected Lineup (7/4)

• The Milwaukee Brewers have a matchup against Merrill Kelly today. His ERA of 5.84 is actually better than his expected ERA of 7.53 and his FIP of 6.11. Kelly finished June 0-5 with a 7.31 ERA over 28.1 innings.
• Jackson Chourio has produced as if he never missed the first month of the season, with 26 extra-base hits and a dozen home runs. While he’s been good in his first two MLB seasons, Chourio has yet to post a seasonal OPS above .800. His OPS so far this season is .864.
• Jake Bauers is having a career season. He’s already set career-best marks in runs scored, home runs and RBI. His previous career-best batting average was .235 last season, and he’s currently hitting .268. While he’s been fine against left-handed pitchers, with a .699 OPS, it’s his matchups against right-handed pitchers that have carried him (.916 OPS).
• Garrett Mitchell is always someone to consider in DFS because of his incredible batted-ball data. He hits the ball with an average exit velocity of 92.8 miles per hour (MPH). The issue is that he also strikes out at a league-worst 33.8% clip. However, when he does make contact, good things can happen, as evidenced by a recent 30-point effort on DraftKings on the first of July, which was followed by home runs in the past two games.

Core Studs

• Francisco Lindor already has a pair of home runs in the week’s worth of games since he returned from his calf strain. He’s also one of the rare players with a history of success against Chris Sale, whom he’ll face today. Lindor has gone 14-for-38 against Sale with four extra-base hits, including a pair of home runs.
• Kyle Schwarber is another star with a history of success against his starting pitcher today. Schwarber is scheduled to face Michael Wacha. Schwarber has gone 7-for-22 against Wacha with an astounding four of those hits being home runs.
• At some point, Hunter Goodman‘s odd home/road splits will be corrected. His road OPS is .990, and his home OPS is .717. His matchup today is at Coors Field against left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray.

Value Plays/Punts

• This one is a bit surprising, but Lane Thomas has an extensive history of success against his opposing starter, Jesus Luzardo. Thomas has gone 8-for-19 against Luzardo, with five extra-base hits, including four home runs.
• The case for Henry Bolte is a similar case to the one made above for Garrett Mitchell. Bolte has an average exit velocity of 90.4 MPH and a 48% hard-hit rate. His issue has been a 28% strikeout rate combined with a 65.3% groundball rate. All it takes is for one of his swings to have an optimal launch angle for him to return value.
• Cedric Mullins has a difficult matchup against Hunter Brown. Junior Caminero‘s hot streak has overshadowed Mullins’ recent surge. Yesterday, he snapped a seven-game hitting streak during which he hit four home runs.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Jack Flaherty (SP – DET): 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

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