British Open Predictions, Picks & Best Bets 2026: Rory McIlroy Wins Seventh Major

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The final major championship of the year begins Thursday, July 16, with Round 1 of the British Open at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England.

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My early British Open predictions are headlined by 2014 Open Champion Rory McIlroy, as the Northern Irishman looks to win his second major championship of the year.

⛳ British Open: Key takeaways

• Best early bet: Rory McIlroy to win (+850) – With a T4 finish here in 2017 and a respectable T7 finish last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, McIlroy is perfectly positioned to take down his seventh major championship

• Best early value: Sam Burns to win (+4000) – This is a long number considering Burns is fifth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and second on approach across his past five events

• Course: Royal Birkdale Golf Club is a legendary 7,223-yard, Par 70 links layout with flat fairways framed by massive, towering sand dunes, and a punishing layer of thick native rough

• Weather: The early forecast suggests classic, testing coastal elements with sustained wind gusts blowing between 10-20 mph across all four days

• Expected cut: This 156-player field will be trimmed to the Top 70 players and ties following Friday’s second round of play

📊 British Open odds

The Open Championship runs at Royal Birkdale Golf Club from Thursday, July 16, through Sunday, July 19. Check out our full British Open odds for more.

Odds from BetMGM, one of our best golf betting sites. 

Check out the full Open Championship field.

Best bets card

Outright: Rory McIlroy (+850): The 2014 Open Champion has seven additional Top 10s in this event, including his T4 at Royal Birkdale in 2017.

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Outright: Viktor Hovland (+2800): With a pedigree of stringing together wins, Hovland’s recent ball-striking spike and recent results should have your attention.

Course breakdown: Royal Birkdale Golf Club

A celebrated stop in The Open rotation, Royal Birkdale Golf Club returns to the spotlight to host golf’s oldest major for the 11th time in its history. Playing as a testing 7,223-yard Par 70, this iconic property makes the developing “bomb-and-gouge” approach challenging. Instead, Birkdale relies on flat, fair fairways that run through valleys framed by towering sand dunes.

Unlike other penal links designs, the fairway bounces are rarely blind, but the true defense lives just off the short grass. Players who stray from the fairway find deep, penal fescue rough or are trapped behind severe dune formations. The property also features over 109 bunkers, and Birkdale underwent an extensive Tom Mackenzie and Martin Ebert redesign in phases ahead of this championship.

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The green complexes themselves are tamer and more modest in size compared to modern major layouts. They are designed to handle the brutal coastal gales that constantly whip off the Irish Sea. Because of this layout, the track heavily rewards players who can control their ball flight and execute low, piercing approach shots into the wind.

Historically, this track provides the ultimate stage where only elite shot-makers can survive. Jordan Spieth leaned on immaculate iron control and a magic short game to triumph here in 2017, following legendary past champions like Arnold Palmer, Lee Trevino, and Tom Watson.

Course management, patience, and tee-to-green precision are paramount to winning this week.

• Modern links track with flat fairways framed by massive sand dunes

• Modest, tamer green complexes designed to withstand coastal elements

• Thick, dense native rough and 109 bunkers protecting angles

• Distinct layout routing can limit the distance advantage off the tee

Players to watch

• Rory McIlroy: In addition to his 2014 Open Championship and finishing T4 here in 2017, McIlroy has another six Top 10s in this event, and he’s carded four Top 20s across five tournaments since winning the Masters in April

• Tommy Fleetwood: The Englishman has three Top 10s at The Open, and he has five straight Top 20s while gaining true strokes across the board ahead of the 2026 edition

Key stats & player profiles to target

• True strokes gained tee-to-green

• True strokes gained approach

• True strokes gained around-the-green/scrambling percentage

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Players to watch

• Scottie Scheffler: The statistical darling paces this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green, adjusted scoring average, and bogey avoidance in 2026

• Matt Fitzpatrick: Ranking second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach, alongside sitting third in adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance reinforce Fitzpatrick’s dominant statistical profile

Outright picks: winners to bet

Pick 1: Rory McIlroy (+850)

It’s clear Rory McIlroy is maximizing his 2026 playing schedule to contend at major championships, and the back-to-back Masters champion won The Open in 2014 and has seven additional Top 10s in this event, including his T4 at Royal Birkdale in 2017.

• Course Fit: June scouting trip to redesigned track after T4 in 2017

• Recent Form: Two Top 10s with true strokes gained across the board across past four events

• Key Stat: Second in adjusted scoring average in 2026

Risk: Betting McIlroy requires a large portion of the weekly bankroll.

Pick 2: Viktor Hovland (+2800)

Viktor Hovland has a history of stringing together wins, so it’s encouraging to see his ball-striking spike across his past four events while carding a solo-third in the RBC Canadian Open, winning the Travelers Championship and finishing T13 in the Scottish Open last week.

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• Course Fit: Hovland’s elite tee-to-green game travels

• Recent Form: Followed up Travelers win with T13 in Scottish Open

• Key Stat: Second in field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across past four events

Risk: Hovland has a T-63 and a missed cut in his past two Opens.

How to watch the British Open & tee times

How to watch:

• Thursday-Friday: 1:30-4 a.m. ET (Peacock), 4 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (USA Network)

• Saturday: 5-7 a.m. ET (USA Network), 7 a.m.-3 p.m. ET (NBC)

• Sunday: 4-7 a.m. ET (USA Network), 7 a.m.-2 p.m. ET (NBC)

Tee times:

British Open betting FAQ

Who is the 2026 British Open favorite?

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is a +750 betting favorite at BetMGM.

When is the 2026 British Open?

The 2026 British Open will be played from Thursday, July 16, to Sunday, July 19.

Where will the 2026 British Open be played?

The 2026 British Open will be played at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, Merseyside, England.

What are British Open FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.

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How do British Open matchup bets work?

When betting on British Open matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

What is the British Open cut line?

The Top 70 golfers and ties after 36 holes will make the cut in the British Open.

Are British Open odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You’ll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the British Open; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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