Can Spieth Recapture the Magic at Royal Birkdale?

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Key odds to make the cut

Scottie Scheffler (-733)

Yes, Scottie Scheffler is mortal. Yes, the World No. 1 is coming off his first missed cut in 79 events, a stretch dating back to 2022. No, he will not miss two in a row. 

You have to think Scheffler will pull out all the stops to ensure, at the very least, he plays on the weekend and is likely going to be among those vying for an overall victory. Go against the grain at your own risk.

Tommy Fleetwood (-525), Matt Fitzpatrick (-488), & Rory McIlroy (-488)

Perhaps unfair to lump this trio together, but they are those who immediately follow Scheffler in the British Open odds, and it seems highly unlikely that any of them will miss out on Saturday and beyond.

All three were in the field at Royal Birkdale in 2017, too. All three made the cut, with McIlroy’s T4 the best of the bunch.

Viktor Hovland & Xander Schauffele (-317)

Okay, so Viktor Hovland has the same line to make the cut as Xander Schauffele, which seems wild to me. Yes, Hovland is in excellent form of late, winning the Travelers Championship in late June and finishing T13 at last weekend’s Genesis Scottish Open.

Meanwhile, Schauffele didn’t make the weekend at The Renaissance Club last week and finished a distant T51 at the Travelers. Based on very recent results, you’d maybe assume that Hovland should have the edge.

I actually think it should go the other way. Schauffele made his British Open debut at this course in 2017 and finished T20. He’s never missed a cut at this event, regardless of venue, and has played the weekend in every major he’s entered dating back to the 2022 Masters.

Hovland has missed the weekend in consecutive majors and has had a more volatile track record in general. When he’s at the apex of his game, he’s capable of winning every week. Some of that can be attributed to a neck injury that bothered him throughout 2025. And while that is seemingly in the past, I like +300 to miss the cut on a golfer who can be a bit of a boom-or-bust candidate.

Pick to miss the cut: Viktor Hovland (+300)

Bryson DeChambeau (-163)

Bryson DeChambeau’s first-ever trip to The Open Championship was at Royal Birkdale in 2017. He missed the cut. A lot has changed in the intervening years, as he has acclimated himself mostly well at majors, including three Top-10 finishes in 2025. However, he’s missed the cut in all three majors this year…but he has won a couple of LIV events, so he’s got that going for him, which is nice.

I’d rather get something a bit longer than +156 to miss the cut, but that’s still plenty tempting, given his recent form.

Jordan Spieth (-150)

Hoo boy, this is a fun line. Jordan Spieth won the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale, which was the last time he won a major. He’s made the cut in every British Open he’s entered, too, so this line is pretty long even at -170. Initially, I expected to like the number on him to miss the cut, with his chances possibly elevated due to that run of success, but at +144, the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.

While Spieth hasn’t been at the peak of his game in 2026, he’s also only missed two cuts and only one over his last 16 events.

British Open cut rules

The British Open cut rule advances the Top 70 players after Round 2 (plus ties). This differs from the U.S. Open, which keeps the Top 60, and a typical PGA Tour event that advances the Top 65.

Past British Open cut lines

Here’s a look at recent British Open cut line numbers. Note that the tournament is played on different courses every year. 

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