4 Fantasy Football Regression Candidates (2026)

We saw some ridiculous fantasy football performances in 2025. But brace yourselves: regression is coming. That’s not necessarily a bad thing; it’s just natural in most instances. Outlier seasons are incredibly tough to repeat, no matter how talented the player is.

Below, I’ve highlighted four players whose 2025 numbers could come back down to Earth to some degree during the 2026 season.

2026 Fantasy Football Regression Candidates

Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR)

Let’s begin with the most important position in sports: quarterback.

Matthew Stafford absolutely cooked last season en route to winning the league MVP award. On 597 attempts, he threw for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns. He finished as the QB4 while averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game.

Heading into 2026, there’s some good news and some bad news when it comes to drafting Stafford in fantasy.

I’m going to start with the bad news: Matthew Stafford is going to regress some this year. His 46 touchdowns were more than he tossed in 2023 and 2024 combined. That’s not sustainable.

Outside of Stafford’s 2025 campaign, there have been seven instances in NFL history of a quarterback throwing for at least 46 touchdowns in a single season. Those passers averaged 16.4 fewer touchdown tosses in their next full season. In fact, the only player who didn’t experience a double-digit drop in scores was Drew Brees. He followed up a 46-touchdown season in 2011 with 43 in 2012.

So based on history, we can expect Stafford’s touchdown total to drop to around 30 or so this season. Still a strong year, and a number that would’ve tied him with Dak Prescott for fourth in 2025.

The good news, though, is that fantasy managers are sharper than ever, and Stafford’s ADP has this regression baked in. Nobody is drafting him anywhere close to where he finished last season. He’s currently QB13 in FantasyPros’ ADP, coming off the board usually at the end of the eighth round.

At that price, Stafford is a lot more palatable. He’s a good target for drafters who want to load up on other positions early and be one of the last to select a starting quarterback for their roster.

Just don’t draft him expecting his numbers to approach last year’s. History isn’t on his side, and at 38 years old, Stafford will have a hard time remaining near the top of nearly every volume and efficiency category.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

What a Year 3 for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. All he did was reel in 119 receptions, amass the eighth-most receiving yards in a season in NFL history (1,793), finish as the WR2 in fantasy points per game (21.2), win the Offensive Player of the Year, and cap it all off with a Super Bowl victory.

But perhaps the biggest and most important number is 35.9%. That was Smith-Njigba’s target share in 2025. I pored over several databases and couldn’t find a season in which a receiver had a higher target share, at least not in the last 10 seasons. The closest ones were Malik Nabers at 34.9% during his rookie season in 2024 and DeAndre Hopkins with 35.2% in 2017.

Getting peppered with looks at such a high clip allowed Smith-Njigba to put together his award-winning season despite Seattle not producing massive passing volume. Sure, he saw 163 targets, but that was still fewer than three other receivers.

To prop up Smith-Njigba’s season even more, the Seahawks ranked 30th in team pass plays per game, averaging only 29.8 per game. They also tied for 30th in Pass Rate Over Expectation with a -6.6% mark. So even though Seattle threw at one of the lowest rates in the league — and Smith-Njigba ranked 21st in routes run (482) — he still smashed and was top three in nearly every productivity and efficiency metric imaginable.

Will that continue this season? Probably not at the same level. The architect for last year’s offense, Klint Kubiak, is now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. His replacement is Brian Fleury, who’s been with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco since 2019.

Fleury was most recently the 49ers’ run game coordinator and tight ends coach. He’s a first-time playcaller, so we have no idea what to expect from him. However, since he’s a Shanahan disciple, so we should see plenty of play action and concepts similar to what Kubiak – who served as the passing game coordinator for Shanahan in 2023 – used successfully last season.

With the loss of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet rehabbing a torn ACL, I expect the Seahawks to drop back more in 2026. Yes, they spent their first-round pick on running back Jadarian Price, but he was a part-timer at Notre Dame. Hard to expect him to come right in and handle 300 touches as a rookie.

Smith-Njigba is a top-six pick in practically every format this year. Some regression is inevitable. But perhaps more passing from Seattle in general will help offset some of that decline. Still, he remains one of the safest receivers off the board.

Trey McBride (TE – ARI)

Here’s another guy coming off an absurd season, record-breaking, in fact. Trey McBride hauled in the most catches (126) by a tight end in NFL history in 2025. He also established career highs in receiving yards (1,239) and touchdowns (11). His 315.9 PPR points were the third-highest point total at the position. Ever.

There’s nowhere else for McBride to go but down.

Not to take away from McBride’s accomplishments, but it took a preposterous 683 routes for him to put up those totals. For perspective, the next tight end was Travis Kelce with 525 routes. In fact, the only other tight end to even run more than 600 routes in the past 10 seasons was Evan Engram (603) in 2023, per PlayerProfiler data.

If you want McBride this year, you’ll need to take him by the late second round, because he has an ADP of 26 overall in PPR leagues. Just know that if you’re selecting him in that range, you’re betting on him to remain near the top in basically every opportunity metric at the position. Last season, McBride ranked:

• 1st in targets – 169
• 1st in target share – 27.4%
• 1st in first read targets – 111
• 1st in red zone targets – 33
• 1st in route participation – 96.6%
• 2nd in snap share – 91.8%
• 3rd in target rate – 24.7%

I have no doubts McBride will command a ton of looks in 2026, but another outlier season is unlikely. The routes and targets will come down as the Cardinals aim to become more balanced on offense; they didn’t spend the No. 3 overall pick on running back Jeremiyah Love for nothing.

Plus, Arizona may turn to rookie third-round pick Carson Beck later in the year to see what they have in him. Jacoby Brissett hyper-targeted McBride; we have no idea whether Beck would do the same.

That said, barring injury, you can pencil McBride in for another top five finish at the position; just don’t expect the massive numbers he produced last season.

Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)

The final guy I want to discuss is one that I actually hope regresses from an efficiency standpoint this season.

That may sound odd, but in this case, that would put Dalton Kincaid on the field more so he can see an increase in targets.

In 2025, there was no better tight end on a per-route basis. Take a gander at these numbers:

• 1st in yards per route run – 3.02
• 1st in first downs per route run – 0.143
• 1st in fantasy points per route run – 0.67
• 1st in yards per target – 11.7
• 1st in target rate – 25.9%
• 1st in QB Rating per target – 149.2
• 1st in explosive plays – 13
• 2nd in fantasy points per target – 2.57
• 2nd in yards per reception – 14.6
• 8th in Expected Points Added – +44.3

The problem with Kincaid is that he didn’t play much. He was basically the Bizarro version of McBride. He had just a 38.3% snap share last year, which was 70th among all tight ends, and ran only 189 routes, which ranked 47th at the position. For context, that’s about 28% of McBride’s route total. Just insanely low usage for a productive and talented player.

Between his knee issues, lack of blocking, and slot-heavy skill set that overlaps with Khalil Shakir, Kincaid will never be an 80-90% snap-share player, at least not in Buffalo. However, would it be too much to ask for him to get back into the 65% range, which is where he was as a rookie? That would boost his fantasy potential immensely.

If you punt on tight end early, Kincaid makes a ton of sense as a high-upside swing later in drafts. You just might have to double-tap the position and add someone with a steadier floor just in case Buffalo continues to limit his snaps.

Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn