What’s next in NBA offseason after LeBron’s decision? Harden, Draymond, Duren eye deals

After 24 days, multiple live show appearances without divulging anything and nearly a dozen podcasts from agent Rich Paul, LeBron James finally announced his free agency decision on Friday, choosing the Philadelphia 76ers as the final chapter in his illustrious career. 

The news came as a pleasant surprise for the Sixers, who found themselves as a serious contender for James after trading for Jaylen Brown earlier in the summer, and a painful snub to the Cavaliers, Heat and Warriors, who were all holding out hope that they would be the ones getting the call from James. 

James stretching his free agency out for more than three weeks held up some of the NBA’s business, including creating the 2026-27 schedule, but now that he’s in Philly, teams can shift their attention to finishing their offseason tasks. 

What’s next for the four LeBron James losers? Warriors’ window is closed, and the Cavs are in trouble

Sam Quinn

At a league level, that means the schedule can start to take shape. Philadelphia was already a focal point in the East after the Brown trade, but will now grab even more spotlight games with James in town — dates on the opening night and Christmas day slates are now highly likely for the Sixers. At a team level, the James suitors who were holding out hope to land James now have to pivot to Plan B — of which the options are limited — and that could kickstart the restricted free agent market that’s been dormant ever since Walker Kessler’s sign-and-trade to the Lakers. 

Let’s dive into what we can expect to see in the coming days and weeks now that James’ situation is settled. 

When will James Harden, Draymond Green get deals done?

Both Green and Harden declined player options to clear space and have patiently waited to see if the Warriors or Cavaliers could land James. Now that James has chosen the 76ers, the expectation is that both Green and Harden will work out new long-term deals to return to their respective teams at a handsome price point that will compensate them for their willingness to be good team players to aid in the pursuit of James. 

Green, according to The Athletic, is expected to sign a deal in the $28 million range — just about the same amount he declined on his player option. Harden’s new deal will likely not be worth the $42.3 million he declined on an annual basis, but a sizable long-term deal is headed his way. There is still a question of when those deals get done. Both the Warriors and Cavaliers need to fill some roster spots and having a bit more flexibility with Green and Harden not yet signed could help their pursuits of rotation talent. 

What happens with top restricted free agents?

James dragging out his free agency for more than three weeks put the stagnant RFA market on the back burner, but now Jalen Duren, Peyton Watson and Bennedict Mathurin become the best players on the market. This is far from the first time restricted free agents have found negotiations hard, as the way the league operates in free agency has made it nearly impossible for top RFAs to get offer sheets. We’ve seen a handful of offer sheets go out this summer — the Grizzlies successfully poached Quinten Post from the Warriors, for example — but almost all of them are in the below mid-level range. 

Very few teams enter the summer with significant cap space anymore, and even when they do, teams are afraid of having that money tied up in an offer sheet another team can match. The result is RFAs end up in one-sided negotiations with their current team, who never want to make the mistake of overpaying when they are the only team bidding. The way restricted free agents change teams now is typically in a sign-and-trade, and that’s been complicated this summer by the Lakers sending the Jazz a king’s ransom for Kessler. 

Jalen Duren

Duren and Detroit have been at an impasse since before free agency began, with the Pistons seemingly daring Duren to find a team willing to offer him more than what they’ve put on the table. That hasn’t happened, and the Pistons have made it clear they have no interest in letting go of Duren. Even if they were to listen on the All-NBA center, they’d ask for even more than what L.A. sent to Utah for Kessler, and now that it’s late July, the list of potential suitors for Duren has dwindled. 

Peyton Watson

The Nuggets are reportedly open to discussing sign-and-trades for Watson, but are setting the bar at the same price as what the Jazz got with two unprotected firsts and two pick swaps. That’s a steep asking price and they’ll try to squeeze Watson into signing back in Denver — with apron concerns complicating those negotiations even further. Denver also has to decide what to do with Spencer Jones, who reportedly nabbed a rare offer sheet from the Thunder worth $12 million over two years. If they don’t match that, they’ll be under even more pressure to bring back Watson. 

Bennedict Mathurin

Mathurin is in limbo in Los Angeles, where the Clippers were considered a suitor for Watson, making things a bit awkward with their own restricted free agent, who was the most notable player they got back in the Ivica Zubac trade. The scoring guard may find himself in the wrong kind of era, as his top skillset as a tough shotmaker is less valued around the league these days. 

What factors into these decisions?

Restricted free agency has always given teams an upper hand in negotiations, but with the introduction of the aprons and teams no longer operating with cap space in the summers — instead making major moves largely via trades — players who hit the RFA market find it nearly impossible to maximize their value. That’s the unfortunate situation for Duren, Watson and Mathurin, and all three will have to decide whether to sign the deal that’s been on the table for weeks or if any of them are willing to roll the dice on the qualifying offer to hit unrestricted free agency next summer. 

Which notable free agents are available?

Now that James is in Philly, the market should open back up for some of the veterans on the free agency market. DeMar DeRozan, Jonathan Kuminga, Bradley Beal, Gabe Vincent, Russell Westbrook, Bruce Brown, Nicolas Batum, Kelly Olynyk and others will now start getting earnest offers, particularly from some of the teams that missed out on James. 

DeRozan could be a target for the Warriors or Heat, while a reunion in Toronto is also in play. Kuminga has reportedly garnered interest from the Cavaliers and Lakers, with Cleveland potentially pivoting to him to fill their need on the wing after missing out on James and seeing Dean Wade also leave for Philly. Beal and Vincent would both make sense as targets for the Heat as they try to fill out their backcourt with more talent to supplement their star frontcourt of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. 

The Warriors are always on the lookout for veteran reinforcements to surround Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, and the Nuggets and Timberwolves, while they knew they were long shots for James, still have work to do to bolster their rotations to try and contend with the Thunder and Spurs at the top of the West.