Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 10, 2026 , 07:06 PM ET
• 4 min read
All of our best 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship predictions, picks, and top picks for TPC Southwind this weekend.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Sam Burns prepares to play a shot.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs are here, and 70 of the best PGA Tour players will take on TPC Southwind in Memphis for the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week.
Scottie Scheffler is favored in the golf odds at 16%.
My early FedEx St. Jude Championship predictions and golf picks are headlined by Americans Sam Burns and Collin Morikawa ahead of the opening round this Thursday, Aug. 13.
⛳ FedEx St Jude Championship: Key takeaways
- Best early bet: Sam Burns to win (3.7%) – With a pair of top-five finishes at TPC Southwind and three Top 5s across his past five events to go along with a sterling statistical profile, Burns is set to take a run at winning again this week
- Best early value: Collin Morikawa to win (3%) – A flawless tee-to-green game will position Morikawa to build on a spectacular 2026 season that includes pacing this field in true strokes gained on approach and ranking third in adjusted scoring average
- Course: TPC Southwind is a 7,233-yard Par 70 that defends the bomb-and-gouge approach with narrow fairways, penalizing rough and challenging small green complexes
- Weather: The early forecast features classic Memphis elements, with sizzling highs near 93°F, thick humidity, and a constant 10 to 20 mph wind
- Cut line: The FedEx St. Jude Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 70 players will play all four tournament rounds
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📇 FedEx St Jude Championship top picks
| Golfer |  Probabillity |
|---|---|
| Sam Burns to win | 3.7% |
| Collin Morikawa to win | 3% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
📊 FedEx St Jude Championship odds
The FedEx St. Jude Championship runs at TPC Southwind from Thursday, August 13, through Sunday, August 16. Check out the full FedEx St. Jude Championship field.
| Golfer | Probabillity |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 16% |
| Rory McIlroy | 5.4% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4.3% |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.1% |
| Cameron Young | 4% |
| Sam Burns | 3.7% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.5% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3.2% |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.1% |
| Justin Thomas | 3% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
🚩 Course breakdown: TPC Southwind
As the opening leg of the FedExCup Playoffs, TPC Southwind serves as a ruthless, high-slope skill separator that instantly exposes any flaws in a player’s game. Playing as a demanding 7,233-yard Par 70, this Memphis track rarely rewards the frequent “bomb-and-gouge” approach found at regular tour stops. Instead, TPC Southwind demands complete precision off the tee to navigate the narrow Zoysia-grass fairways framed by penal Bermuda rough and the water hazards in play on 11 different holes.
The true defense of the property rests in its layout routing, highlighted by seven Par 4s stretching over 450 yards. Because structural hazards line the landing areas, off-the-tee metrics from past tournaments show raw distance alone doesn’t move the needle. Players cannot simply overpower this track.
Players also face highly demanding approach shots into tiny, 4,300-square-foot Champion Bermuda green complexes. These putting surfaces are among the smallest targets players play all season. Historical data heavily emphasizes top-tier approach play specifically from the 150-to-175-yard range, making precise mid-iron play the absolute blueprint for success.
Once on the greens, the test shifts toward high-end lag putting and statistical nerve on firm, fast, and pure surfaces. Because the greens are so small, missing the target is inevitable, which naturally places a premium on scrambling and bogey avoidance.
- Demanding 7,233-yard Par 70 with narrow fairways and water on 11 holes
- Tiny, firm, fast and true Champion Bermuda green complexes
- Punishing rough penalizes misses the fairway
Players to watch:
- Tommy Fleetwood: Don’t sleep on Fleetwood because he’s carded six consecutive Top 15s, in addition to his three career Top 5s at TPC Southwind
- Scottie Scheffler: With a solo-fourth and T3 the past two years in this event alongside Scheffler’s elite tee-to-green game, expect the current leader in the FedEx Cup Standings to take another run at winning this week
- Sam Burns: The wins are coming for Burns after carding five straight Top 20s that includes three Top 5s. He also has a pair of Top 5s across his six trips to TPC Southwind
🔢 Key stats & player profiles to target
This limited 70-player playoff field features no cut, guaranteeing 72 holes of grinding where misses are penalized heavily.
- True strokes gained on approach
- Driving accuracy
- Adjusted scoring average, Par 4 scoring and bogey avoidance
- True strokes gained around-the-green, scrambling percentage
- Proximity from 150-175 Yards
Players to watch:
- Matt Fitzpatrick: It’s been a statistical masterclass across the board this season for Fitzpatrick, and his ranks of second in true strokes gained tee-to-green and on approach alongside ranking fourth in adjusted scoring and sixth in Par 4 scoring are the icing on the cake
- Collin Morikawa: The two-time major champion paces this field in true strokes gained on approach and ranks third in adjusted scoring average, so with Morikawa also ranking fourth in driving accuracy there’s no questioning his ability to contend this week
📺 How to watch the FedEx St Jude Championship & tee times
How to watch:
- Thursday-Friday: 9-11 a.m. ET (ESPN) and 2-6 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
- Saturday-Sunday: 1-3 p.m. ET (Golf Channel) and 3-6 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tee times:
❓ FedEx St Jude Championship betting FAQ
Who is the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship favorite?
Scottie Scheffler is a 16% favorite at Kalshi.
When is the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship?
The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship will be played from Thursday, August 13 to Sunday, August 16.
Where will the 2026 FedEx St Jude Championship be played?
The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship will be played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN.
What are FedEx St Jude Championship FRL markets?
First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which golfers will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament.
How do FedEx St Jude Championship matchup picks work?
When betting on FedEx St. Jude Championship matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two golfers listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.
What is the FedEx St Jude Championship cut line?
The FedEx St. Jude Championship is a no-cut playoff event, and all 70 players will play all four tournament rounds.
Are FedEx St Jude Championship odds the same across all sportsbooks?
You’ll see slight to significant variations in odds across sportsbooks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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